Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 281747 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1247 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THERE ARE TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...ONE OF WHICH WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA
TODAY...AND THE OTHER THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
AND WAS CENTERED OVER THE MN/WI BORDER.  ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVOLVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS.
ACROSS WESTERN MN...CLOUD COVER WAS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...BUT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WERE WORKING INTO THE AREA. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS GOING TO CONTINUE ON ITS PATH TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...AND THE CONVERGENCE/FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR
NORTH...SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FAR WESTERN MN.  IN FACT...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL HAVE A NICE DAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE INDICATED LESS LOW/MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS SO FILTERED SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...WENT WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 800MB WHICH WOULD AGAIN YIELD
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...OUR EYES ARE ON ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY NEAR KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING THAT WILL TURN NNE TODAY AND ADVANCE THROUGH IOWA
AND REACH SOUTHERN MN THIS EVENING. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT PREVIOUSLY DID...BUT
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STILL LOOKS SOLID ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TONIGHT THANKS TO A
STRENGTHENING JET TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO AS PV ADVECTION LOOKS
BEST IN THAT TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION...BEST LI`S WILL BECOME
NEGATIVE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SO THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AND THAT COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO ABOUT 1.6" COULD CREATE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
PROGRESS ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES METRO AS WELL AS POINTS EAST AND
SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...IT/S NOT CLEAR CUT ON WHERE
AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP ALONG A COOL FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FA ON FRIDAY. VARIOUS WRF SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE ARW...NMM AND HOPWRF-TS FOCUS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
ALONG I-90 AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. EVEN THE NAMNEST IS DEPICTING
MORE OF FAR SOUTHERN MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WERE ADJUSTED
A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A
CONCERN IN THE CONVECTION ON FRIDAY DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES PROGGED TO BE OVER 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS AT THE TOP OF THE
MPX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE END OF MAY. BOOSTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED BREAK
IN THE CONVECTION BETWEEN THAT IN THE MORNING AND REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING REAL SPIFFY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT WILL CERTAINLY
BE COOLER AND LESS HUMID ON SATURDAY (LOWER-MIDDLE 60S).
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ON SUNDAY AS WE TRANSITION TO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE LONG TERM (WED) WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON THE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS SEEN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHWEST MN. THEREFORE
TAILORED POPS TO THE FAR WEST AND NORTH PORTIONS OF THE MN CWA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE STARTING WEDNESDAY
AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN PARTS OF MN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN A BAND OF RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH
FROM IOWA AND PUSH ACROSS SRN/ERN MN AND WRN WI OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THIS RAIN AND FOLLOWING AS
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH NORTH. MSP...RNH...AND EAU APPEAR
TO BE THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH THE OVERNIGHT
RAIN...WHILE STC...AXN...AND RWF WILL PROBABLY SEE ACTION MORE
ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL GO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. COULD SEE SOME
IFR LEVELS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR THAT
MENTION IN THE TAFS YET.

KMSP...RAIN APPEARS TO MOVE IN AROUND 05Z...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
IT PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL...CIGS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10 KTS.
SUN/MON...VFR. WINDS SE 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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