000
FXUS63 KMPX 092016
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
216 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING UNDER
THE TEMPORARY INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY/S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
TO THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...WHICH
MEANS THE POWDERY SNOW THAT FELL YESTERDAY WILL LIKELY BE BLOWING
AROUND A BIT. THE BRISK WINDS...COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE...WILL ACTUALLY YIELD COLDER WIND CHILL
READINGS THIS MORNING THAN WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR MN...GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NOON HOUR. THE AFTERNOON WIND
CHILL READINGS WILL NOT MAKE SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT...AND RANGE
MOSTLY FROM 15 BELOW TO THE LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO.

THIS EVENING WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HALF TO ONE INCH
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. WIND CHILLS
WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA /25 BELOW/ AGAIN ON MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

NOT TOO MANY CHGS TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE INITIAL ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE COLD...HIGHS
WILL REBOUND FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS...TO THE 20S...AND
POSSIBLY LOWER 30S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TYPICALLY HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

THE OVERALL 50H MEAN TROUGH THAT HAS HELD ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA...AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF THE U.S. WILL BEGIN TO
DE-AMPLIFY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA BY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA SLOWLY WEAKENING...A MORE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LEADING TO CHGS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE CHGS WILL OCCUR WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHRTWV/S
MOVING ALONG THE ACTIVE WNW/NW JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
TIMING OF THESE SHRTWV/S WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH BOUTS OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW. DUE TO PWATS LOW IN THIS ARCTIC AIR
MASS...EVEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD
TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX
AND SNOWFALL RATIOS OF 20 TO 25-1.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

WE ARE STILL FIGHTING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI DUE TO CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...BUT
OVERALL...WE WILL BE VFR UNTIL LIGHT SNOW WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES IN TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER ARRIVES. SNOW IS POSSIBLE AFTER AFTER
05Z...WITH A WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

KMSP...

AFTER 03Z TUESDAY...MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE WITH THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 05Z AND 12Z TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR AND -SN IN THE MORNING. WINDS W
15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF