281
FXUS63 KMPX 030506
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1206 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity build as we head into the holiday weekend.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected late Friday into
  Saturday.

- Cooler and drier conditions arrive for the second half of the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Visible satellite imagery shows diurnal Cu across far
southeastern Minnesota and much of western Wisconsin this
afternoon. There are far fewer clouds to the west, allowing
temperatures to make a run at 90. It`s also quite a bit more
humid across western Minnesota with Tds in the mid to upper 60s
thanks to southerly flow on the eastern edge of a building ridge
across the central CONUS. The thunderstorm chances for this
afternoon have been significantly reduced as the better forcing
lies to the east. Still, a rouge shower or two may pop before
the sun sets. Tomorrow, with the ridge axis over the eastern
Dakotas/western Minnesota, temperatures and humidity will be on
the rise. Southerly flow will send Tds into the 70s with highs
in the upper 80s/low 90s. With the better moisture and a weak
700mb shortwave, we may have a better shot at some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms for southern Minnesota/western
Wisconsin.

Heading into the Independence Day holiday weekend, the heat and
humidity look to stick around showers and thunderstorms likely
sometime late Friday through Saturday. Friday should be mostly
dry during the day, but heat indices will approach the mid to
upper 90s. While there is currently no heat related headline,
one may be considered in future forecasts. As we get into the
evening/overnight hours, chances for storms increase ahead of an
approaching cold front. There is still a fair amount of timing
uncertainty, but overall, it does appear thunderstorms will hold
off until late in the evening/overnight hours. Thanks to the
instability that will build through the afternoon, some of these
storms may be strong to severe. Lapse rates are less than
impressive, but some hail and damaging winds are possible. Those
with outdoor plans are encouraged to monitor the forecast.

The first half of the weekend looks to be a continuation of
Friday night with an additional mid level shortwave pushing
across Minnesota and Wisconsin. Increasing 850mb winds will
shift the threat for the heavier showers and storms into far
eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. QPF totals for the two
days are around a half inch to an inch, but given the impressive
pwats, some higher amounts are certainly possible. Sunday will
be much cooler and drier in the wake of this system. Slightly
below normal temperatures will last through the early part of
next week with no strong signal for widespread rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Clear sky VFR with light or calm winds overnight into the
morning. There is a chance for fog or mist at EAU, but the
overall environment is not very different from the past nights
where little fog formed. Winds will remain light, but increase
from calm during the day before calming again tomorrow night.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, chc TSRA/IFR pm. Wind S 10-15G25-30kts.
SAT...-SHRA/MVFR, chc IFR/TSRA. Wind SW 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR PM. Wind NW 10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...NDC