Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 160500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1200 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Several short waves were noted across the Upper Midwest this
afternoon, which was based on the regional satellite and radar
imagery. Earlier models have a hard time with morning convection
which led to numerous updates from mainly a dry forecast this
morning. Overnight convection is the main forecast concern as models
remain uncertain on areal coverage and timing.

First, there was a significant mid level jet over eastern South
Dakota, and western Minnesota this afternoon. This, plus ample mid
level instability kept showers and thunderstorms reforming across
west central and central Minnesota this afternoon. There was another
weaker short wave noted in south central Minnesota which was related
to earlier convection in northern Iowa. This may support a few
showers or storms in far east central Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin late this afternoon/early evening.

The bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity will be centered in
northern Minnesota this evening and this is based on the
aforementioned mid level jet and instability. Further to the south
across Nebraska, another area of elevated instability was noted on
regional radar. This area of elevated instability will likely be the
focus of late evening showers and thunderstorms in southern and
eastern Minnesota once another low level jet develops. This is also
where the higher percentages occur tonight. By morning, most of this
activity will likely be in west central Wisconsin and decreasing in
areal coverage. Saturday`s forecast is based on the main energy from
the storm system, plus the cold front sweeping across the area.

Severe weather is still possible but not likely to be widespread due
to limited wind shear in the area of highest Saturday afternoon
instability. This could change but more than likely a few strong or
severe storms will develop in the warm section in south central
Minnesota Saturday afternoon, and quickly move northeast into west
central Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

The large scale pattern during the long term forecast period still
looks to feature a deep mid/upper trough over the western CONUS,
with resultant active weather across the central CONUS. Timing of
precipitation chances associated with embedded waves lifting out
of the trough will be the primary forecast concern.

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Saturday night,
especially along/east of I-35 as the cold front passes. Sunday we
dry out behind the front, and high temperatures retreat to
slightly below normal values in the 60s.

Sunday night and Monday the stalled front lifts back north toward
the area as a warm front. Weak low level moisture transport
ensues, although with high pressure in place at the surface over
the eastern part of the area, expect it to be difficult for
activity to expand north/eastward.

Tuesday looks to be dry with temperatures moderating back into the
mid/upper 70s.

Tuesday night through Friday looks to be the most active time
frame as southwest flow aloft ushers several weak waves over the
area, and a surface frontal system eventually pushes through.
Temperatures will remain above seasonal normals as long as the
trough stays to our west.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight, as a cold
front moves through the region. Forecast soundings show MVFR/IFR
clouds behind this front, along with west northwest winds and some
post-frontal showers and thunderstorms.

Wind shear expected overnight due to a strong southerly low level
jet. Otherwise mainly VFR with a few scattered showers, along
with some thunder possible by morning. MVFR cigs will arrive
after sunset on Saturday evening after the front moves through,
along with some post-frontal thunderstorms.

Sun...MVFR cigs possible early. Winds WNW 5-10kt
Mon...VFR with TSRA/MVFR possible. Winds SE 10-15kt
Tue...VFR with TSRA/MVFR possible. Wind SE at 15-20kt




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