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000
FXUS65 KCYS 271902
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
102 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 102 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

increased chances for thunderstorms this afternoon for the plains
of southeast Wyoming for this afternoon. The front is slowly
moving east across the plains early this afternoon and
thunderstorms have initiated along the front. Bumped up QPF as
well, and still think small hail and gusty winds are likely with
a few storms. The environment further east into the Panhandle
remains quite capped at this hour, but CAPE is sufficient to keep
strong thunderstorms if the cap can weaken some. Will keep an eye
on this activity as it moves east. In addition, issued a Red Flag
Warning for portions of southeast Wyoming. See the FIRE WEATHER
section below for details.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Today will be a change from the recent dry and mild weather
pattern we have gotten used to over the past week. A shortwave
trough will track just north of our area late this afternoon as an
upper level jet noses into SE WY. Height falls aloft and upper
diffluence will serve to strengthen a sfc trough over the plains
this afternoon. Strong moisture transport already in place as
dewpoints early this morning are well into the 50s east of the
Laramie Range. Given the moist SE flow have seen some low stratus
start to form over the favored upslope locations so will need to
monitor places like the I-80 summit for fog formation.

Sfc trough will surge eastward into the NE panhandle early this
afternoon.  Most CAM`s are developing widely scattered storms along
this trough and then quickly moving them eastward and out of our
eastern counties mid/late afternoon. Have doubts about the coverage
of convection east of the surface trough as 700 temps warm to 14-16C
so will have to wait for strong sfc heating to overcome this cap. By
this time storms can really get going, think the best low level
moisture will be to our east. Shear profiles are favorable for
supercells so if things can get going a bit earlier, large hail and
damaging winds are a possibility.  This would be more likely in our
easternmost row of counties. A second area of convection will most
likely form over the higher terrain in a deeply mixed, warm and dry
BL.  This activity will be high based and looking at strong wind
profiles and inverted-V soundings which would promote gusty
downdrafts with very little in the way of measurable precipitation.
This activity will be most prevalent over our northern counties
closer to the shortwave energy aloft.  It will also be a breezy to
windy day west of the Laramie Range with the deep mixing especially
early in the afternoon.  Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are likely
especially in our wind prone areas with pressure falls to the north
and east.

Front will move across the area this evening with gusty west to
northwest winds persisting into the late evening hours.  Wednesday
will be a slightly cooler day and with weak shortwave energy aloft
during the afternoon, expected continued chances for afternoon
convection especially in SE WY near the higher terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

The afternoon convection developing along the higher terrain of SE
Wyoming Wednesday will spread east onto the high plains Wednesday
evening as the next shortwave moves east across central Wyoming.
We will keep some PoPs going across the northeastern half of the
forecast area into Thursday as that shortwave drives eastward
across the area, then we see a drop in significant rain chances
through the rest of the week as most of the stronger shortwave
energy passes our area to the northeast with weak upper ridging
building in from the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

VFR conditions through the taf period. Isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop after around 20Z,
with gusty winds being the main threat. Could also see brief heavy
rain and mvfr vis with the storms across the Nebraska Panhandle.
Winds will be breezy through the afternoon with gusts to 20-30
kts.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 102 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Noticed early this afternoon that fuels have been marked as ready
to carry fire for portions of southeast Wyoming. This includes FWZ
306 and 309 where winds are gusting around 35 mph and humidities
have dropped to around 15%. Therefore, issued a Red Flag Warning
for the remainder of this afternoon through 7pm for these zones.
May have similar conditions in these areas tomorrow.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for WYZ306-309.

NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...DEL
LONG TERM...Garmon
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RJM