Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 260452
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
952 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE EXCEPTION
IS HERE IN CHEYENNE WHERE RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW CONTINUING IN AREAS NEAR THE WY/CO STATELINE.
WARNINGS HAVE WORKED OUT WELL ACROSS THE AREA WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES
BEING REPORTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LOCATIONS
THAT HAVE SEEN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WELL. NOT SEEING MUCH REASON
TO CHANGE THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE AFTER LOOKING THRU 00Z
DATA. ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES WILL DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ROADWAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO IN POOR SHAPE. EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO TAPER OF
TONIGHT TOO...AS WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SOME FALLING OFF.
ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

OVERALL...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST SINCE THIS
MORNINGS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS REGION. POCKETS OF HEAVIER
SNOW RATES ARE OCCURRING WITHIN A SNOW BAND SITUATED MAINLY ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING MORE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER
CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NEBRASKA. EARLIER...LIGHTNING WAS IN FACT
OBSERVED IN NORTHERN COLORADO. SO EXPECT HEAVIER SNOW RATES OUT OF
THESE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME. NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE FORCING ON NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF TERRAIN FEATURES SUCH AS THE LARAMIE
RANGE...CHEYENNE RIDGE...AND SNOWY RANGE MOUNTAINS. ALL IN
ALL...THINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR SNOW TOTALS AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT...AND OFF AND ON FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING ANY HIGHLIGHTS
OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR NOW AS 12Z MODELS KEEP THE TRACK OF THE
MAIN VORT MAX EJECTING OUT INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW SOUTH ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT RACED
THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

SATURDAY...COLD AND WINDY DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RESIDUAL SNOW FIELD WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...POSITIVELY TILTED...MOVES
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO OUR COUNTIES...AND SPREADING SNOW
ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES WEST OF A LARAMIE TO DOUGLAS
LINE...AND FURTHER EAST AFTER SUNSET.

MONDAY...COLD AND SNOWY DAY WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS FULLY ENTRENCHED AND
OUR SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD PROVIDING LIFT OF THE NEARLY SATURATED
AIRMASS...ALONG WITH LIFT PROVIDED BY NORTH AND NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
WINDS.

TUESDAY...MAIN ENERGY WITH TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AS THE ENERGY SHEARS OUT...THUS DRY ACROSS OUR COUNTIES. STILL
BITTERLY COLD THOUGH BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR -22 CELSIUS.

WEDNESDAY...SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE AIRMASS MODERATES
AND THICKNESSES RISE. LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

NEW YEARS DAY...UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER ARIZONA WITH OUR COUNTIES
UNDER PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 431 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

WIDESPREAD LIFR AND IFR TONIGHT WITH MOUNTAINS  OBSCURED...THEN
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO MVFR AND VFR AFTER DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 431 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. DRY FOR THIS WEEKEND BUT THEN ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY ALONG WITH A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOME PLACES STRUGGLING
TO REACH ZERO DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35 EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ102-103.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ101-104>119.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NEZ002-003-021-
     055-095-096.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NEZ019-020-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM


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