Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 171744
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1144 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly below average temperatures expected due to cloud
  cover on Sunday. A few flurries and/or sprinkles could be
  possible during the daytime hours.

- Well above normal temperatures are expected to return this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Chilly across the Nebraska panhandle early this morning with spots
dropping down into the teens and low 20s. Warmer across southeast
Wyoming as low clouds across the area have kept temperatures above
what most guidance was suggesting. Did have to adjust morning lows
for Sundays as models also did not have the panhandle getting as
cold as what was being observed. The Night Fog satellite product has
done a great job highlighting areas of low stratus this morning. A
broader area of stratus is beginning to move into the northern tier
of the CWA and will continue to trek south throughout the morning
hours. The increased cloud cover and northerly winds from a trough
over the Great Lakes region will lead to cooler temperatures today.
Highs will be slightly below average with most locations in the 40s.
Aside from the cold, the low clouds could lead to a few flurries
and/or sprinkles during the daytime hours Sunday.

On Monday, the upper-level low over the Desert Southwest will
weaken. This will allow a ridge over western CONUS to strengthen.
Temperatures under the ridge will warm and lead to sunny skies on
Monday. Temperatures will climb to above average on Monday with
highs east of the Laramie Range in the 50s and 60s, and highs west
of the Laramie Range in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

With upper level ridging building over the Intermountain-West
overtop of the closed upper low in the southwest CONUS, we should
see above average temperatures for much of the CWA for the middle of
the week. 700mb temps hovering around 0C will support afternoon
highs in the upper 50s to 60s along and east of I-25 into the NE
Panhandle. While not looking at records, temperatures will be around
10F degrees above normal for late March.

The eventual eastward propagation of the closed low over the
southwest CONUS with a strengthening subtropical jet, along with a
large scale upper low over central Canada, will begin to turn flow
aloft more zonal later this week. A few shortwave passages could
lead to breezy periods, especially Thursday, along with low end
PoPs. The next best chance for precipitation will arrive next
weekend as the next Pacific wave develops across the western CONUS.
Plenty of model uncertainty remains with placement and timing as the
latest Euro is being more progressive with the initial wave
resulting in widespread precipitation beginning Saturday evening
while better large scale lift arrives ~24 hours later with the
latest GFS solution. The Euro takes a slightly farther north track
that could lead to portions of the CWA being dryslotted, however the
GFS digs this trough into a more favorable location for widespread
precipitation across our area with far out forecast soundings
showing deep DGZs. Around one-third of EC members are still on board
with this later arrival per cluster analysis so will need to
continue to monitor forecast trends as we try to converge to a
reasonable solution.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Northerly flow aloft will prevail.

Wyoming TAFS...Scattered to broken clouds from 3500 to 4000 feet
will occur into tonight, then skies will become clear tonight or Monday
morning. Winds will gust to 25 knots until 01Z.

Nebraska TAFS...Scattered to broken clouds around 5000 feet will
occur into early this evening, then skies will be clear. Winds
will gust to 28 knots until 01Z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...RUBIN


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