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000
FXUS65 KCYS 151009
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
409 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE CLEAR SKIES THAT PROVIDED A BEAUTIFUL VIEW OF THE TOTAL LUNAR
ECLIPSE OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS COME WARMING WEST WINDS WHICH WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES OR MORE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. IT
WILL BE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH SOME RATHER STRONG WINDS WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS COULD BUMB UP NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA IN THE ARLINGTON AREA BUT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME GUSTS
50 TO 55 MPH. SHOULD NOT NEED HEADLINES BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY.

MODELS ARE COMPLETELY STRUGGLING WITH SHORTWAVE FEATURES THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS THIS MORNING BARELY RESEMBLE THAT OF 24
HOURS AGO CONCERNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK RIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
INSTEAD OF SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS MEANS MUCH LESS CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS ALSO MEANS NOT NEARLY AS
COLD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ADJUSTED POPS
DOWN TO REFLECT THE CHANGE IN SHORTWAVE TRACK. MAINLY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION/SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE MOST DRY TONIGHT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
SOUTHERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ITS IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
MINIMAL. MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SO SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT OVERALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOSTLY ON THE LOW SIDE. SHOULD SEE SOME
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...BUT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR RETURN. FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD BASICALLY SPLIT WITH MUCH
OF THE ENERGY RIDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
IT WILL STILL PUSH A MINOR PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SHAVING A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF TEMPERATURES THEN. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY WILL
THEN EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND AS IT DOES IT
MAY BRING A GLANCING SHOT OF PCPN TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA IF
IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH. AFTER THAT MILDER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS
OVER THE ROCKY MTN REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS. SOME
GUSTY SFC WINDS OVER SE WYOMING AERODROMES. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
THEN PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT ALONG WITH SCTD MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER A MILD DAY
TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE COOL CONDITIONS...MAINLY
OVER EASTERN AREAS ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WARMER
AND MOSTLY DRY INTO THIS WEEKEND. COULD BE VERY WARM COMER EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML