Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 280340
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
940 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

It appears that the shear and moderate instability is keeping the
strong storm going in southern Box Butte and Morrill county.
However, it appears like the tornado threat is over. As a result,
we decided to go ahead and cancel the Tornado Watch.

UPDATE Issued at 750 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

We are sending out a quick update to cancel the Tornado Watch for
Southeast Wyoming. Meanwhile, the Nebraska Panhandle will continue
to see the potential for severe storms especially areas south of
Dawes county. Although, the tornado potential is looking more slim,
large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. Therefore,
in collaboration with SPC, we have extended the Tornado Watch for
the Nebraska Panhandle until 04z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Afternoon water vapor loop showed a weak shortwave moving toward
western NE. This wave is encountering a very moist and unstable
airmass from western NE into eastern CO and western KS where SBCAPES
ranged from 3000-4000 j/kg and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kt. Latest
mesoanalysis placed the leading edge of 50+ deg dew points along
the lee side of the Laramie Range marked by enhanced cu cloud field.
Tstorms developed along eastern edge of CWA enhanced by low level
moisture convergence and differential heating. These storms
became severe quickly as they moved southeast along low level
theta-e ridge/instability axis. Other tstorms were firing over the
Black Hills SD and these may track south as right-movers per the
Bunkers vectors. Some convective inhibition (CIN) has kept
convective development limited over east-central WY and the northern
Laramie Range. Tornado Watch was issued for much of NE Panhandle
and far southeast WY until 8 pm MDT. Scattered tstorms will likely
persist through late evening over the NE portion of the CWA...with
more isolated activity over southeast WY.

Tuesday still looks to be more active than today in terms of severe
potential and convective coverage. A stronger shortwave topping the
upper ridge to the west will track southeast across eastern WY
and western NE during the afternoon and evening. NAM SBCAPES peak
between 3500 and 4500 j/kg mid-late afternoon Tuesday east of the
I-25 corridor. 0-6 km shear will be a tad stronger as well with
values around 50 kt. The SPC DAY2 outlook has an enhanced risk
for severe tstorms from extreme east-central WY into much of
western NE...mainly east of a line from Lusk WY to Kimball NE.
Looking at discrete supercells producing all modes of severe
weather...i.e. very large hail...damaging winds 60-70 mph and
isolated tornadoes. Severe threat may linger into the late evening
hours across the NE Panhandle. Convective coverage will be more
widely scattered along and west of the Laramie Range. High
temperatures will likely be reached by early afternoon with
readings in the 80s. Wednesday will be quieter with regards to
severe potential with only a marginal risk across the northeast
plains in the afternoon. High temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler...but still in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Wednesday night/Thursday...With decent upslope and low level
convergence, expect scattered evening thunderstorms Wednesday along
and east of I-25, then storms dissipating with loss of daytime
heating.  Same flow regime continues on Thursday with moist low level
easterly upslope and northwest flow aloft providing directional
shear. So, again scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms on
tap Thursday with some storms strong to severe based on shear and
instability.

Friday...Low and mid levels dry out slightly, thus less coverage of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, focused especially across
western Nebraska where low level convergence will be maximized.

Saturday...Weak shortwave aloft progged to move across near peak
heating and combined with low and mid level moisture, expect
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
again.

Sunday...Atmosphere continues to dry out somewhat again with a
surface trough progged across far southeast Wyoming. Will continue
with mention of isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

July 4th...Fairly potent shortwave moves across central Montana with
notable warming at mid levels over our counties to near 18 Celsius
at 700 mb. With limited low and mid level moisture and warming aloft,
will leave out mention of thunderstorms for now as they look isolated
at best in this pattern, so hopefully outdoor activities will be near
perfect for the holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins and Laramie. Isolated thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon near Laramie. At Cheyenne, VFR prevails with
periods of IFR in fog from 10Z to 15Z. Isolated thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon near Cheyenne.

Nebraska TAFS...Isolated thunderstorms until 03Z. VFR prevails,
except for IFR in fog from 07Z to 15Z. Isolated thunderstorms
again Tuesday afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Moist unstable air...favorable wind shear and a passing upper
level disturbance will produce scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms for areas east of the Laramie Range today and
Tuesday. Some of the storms may be severe with large hail...heavy
rain and damaging winds. Areas west of the Laramie Range can
expect isolated afternoon thunderstorms...with the potential for
dry lightning over Carbon County. The unsettled weather pattern
will continue Wednesday through the weekend with isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ


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