Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 161742
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1142 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to slightly below average temperatures expected for the
  weekend, with a slight chance of snow showers over the high
  terrain Saturday night.

- Well above normal temperatures are expected to return next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Looking at an uneventful weekend weather-wise as the CWA is
sandwiched between an upper-level low spinning over the Desert
Southwest and a strong trough over the Great Lakes Region. Mostly
sunny skies will warm temperatures a few degrees compared to Friday,
but, overall, temperatures across the area will remain near-normal
on Saturday. Because of the CWA`s position between these two
systems, northerly to easterly flow will exist across the area. This
will increase clouds across the area Saturday night and may even
lead to some light orographic snow showers over the high terrain. Hi-
Res models have been consistent over the last few runs showing light
precipitation Saturday night into Sunday morning over the North
Laramie Range, Snowy Range, and Ferris, Seminoe, and Shirley
Mountains. Little to no accumulation is expected with these snow
showers. Temperatures on Sunday will be a few degrees cooler with
the increased cloud cover and northerly winds. Highs will be
slightly below average for mid-March with temperatures for most
locations in the 40s. A few low spots in the North Platte River
Valley may be able to squeeze out low 50s. Temperatures Sunday night
will be on the chilly side as winds become light and skies clear,
allowing for effective radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Beginning early this week, the closed upper level low will remain
over the southwest CONUS under an upper level ridge with northwest
flow overtop of the CWA. This will help 700mb temps climb to near 0C
and support warm, spring-like surface temperatures in the 50s and
60s east of I-25 into the NE Panhandle starting Monday afternoon,
but especially Tuesday and Wednesday. This upper level low will
eventually eject eastward midweek with the strengthening of the
subtropical jet across the southern US. While this could provide a
quick shot of light mountain snowfall Wednesday, the next best
chance for precipitation will arrive later in the week as the 500mb
flow pattern turns more zonal ahead of the next Pacific wave. With
the passage of a few leading shortwaves, enhanced 700mb flow and
strengthening gradients could support a marginal high wind event
Thursday for southeast WY wind-prone locations. Plenty of model
uncertainty does exist with the evolution of this next Pacific wave,
but PoPs increase Friday and headed into the weekend. If this
previous system was any telltale for this time of the year, we will
likely begin with rain showers east of I-25 and especially in the NE
Panhandle before colder air arrives transitioning precipitation to
snow. The latest GFS does not have a rapid drop in 700mb temps as
PoPs increase, but GEFS begins to show substantial spread as early as
Thursday behind the ejection of the stationary low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Weak northerly flow aloft will continue. Mostly clear skies will
prevail this afternoon and into the early evening, then
scattered to broken clouds from 4000 to 10000 feet will occur.
Winds will gust to 27 knots at Cheyenne and the Nebraska
terminals until 01Z, then gust to 22 knots at Cheyenne after
15Z Sunday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...RUBIN


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