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000
FXUS65 KCYS 050015
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
515 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 221 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

VISIBILITIES HAVE REALLY IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON AT
LARAMIE...CHEYENNE AND WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING PRETTY GOOD
VISIBILITIES BOTH NORTH OF CHEYENNE AND IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY
AS THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY AREA LEFT NOW IS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE VISIBILITIES AT
KCDR ARE AROUND A MILE. NEDOR WEBCAMS STILL SHOWING SOME BLSN UP
THERE. KEPT THIS AREA GOING THROUGH THE ORIGINAL 5 PM EXPIRATION TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN
THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY...SNOW RAPIDLY COMING TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WINTER STORM THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE SNOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. UPPER TROUGH IN THE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS BEING SEEN ON IR IMAGERY. STILL
PRETTY WINDY OUT IN THE PANHANDLE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE. STILL SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES BEING
SEEN ON WYDOT WEBCAMS OVER THE I-80 SUMMIT AND THE ASOS HERE AT
CHEYENNE STILL REPORTING GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20KT RANGE...SO WILL KEEP
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW. BIG NEWS IS TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. 1 PM READINGS REALLY STRUGGLING HERE IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. 1 DEGREE REPORTED AT CHEYENNE AND LUSK...-2F AT LARAMIE
AND -1 AT RAWLINS. MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BEING REPORTED OUT
IN THE PANHANDLE. PROBABLY HAVE SEEN OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND SHOULD START TO SEE THESE
TEMPERATURES FALLING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ATTENTION
TURNS TO TONIGHT.

BRUTALLY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT. EVEN SOME RECORD
LOWS BEING FORECAST AT CHADRON AND ALLIANCE TONIGHT. GFS 850MB
WINDS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE REMAIN AT 30KTS WITH 700MB WINDS OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AROUND 20 TO 25KTS. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE SOME
WIND OVERNIGHT. WITH LOWS IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...IT IS
NOT GOING TO TAKE MUCH TO HIT WINDCHILL WARNING CRITERIA. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINDCHILL WARNING FOR MOST OF THE CWFA FOR
TONIGHT. WINDS EASE SOME THURSDAY MORNING AND MAY GO CALM...THAT
IS WHY I ENDED THE WARNING SO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THERE ARE
WINDS...THEN THE MID SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND IT LONGER.

700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
GFS SHOWING -22 TO -24C THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONE THING THAT
MAY SAVE US IS THE SURFACE HIGH IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
DAKOTAS...ALLOWING A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPING WINDS COULD BRING IN SOME LOW STRATUS THAT WOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN THEY ARE GOING TO BE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE CWA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COLD SFC AIR MASS WILL HOLD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS A LARGE UPPER TROF WAVERS FROM CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. NEXT POTENT UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS UPPER TROF OVER THE WEEKEND...
TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC NW SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING EAST OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD DELIVER A GLANCING SHOT OF SNOW TO THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD THROUGH MONDAY.
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE WNWLY BY WEDS ALLOWING FOR WARMING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 514 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION AS THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE SNOWFALL HAS DEPARTED. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET WELL BELOW ZERO. A FEW-SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH
IN AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD DURING THAT TIME...SO RECENT
SNOW PACK WILL LIKELY STAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ101>110-
     112>119.

NE...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLAYCOMB
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB