Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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176
FXUS65 KCYS 072335
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
435 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS PREVENTING DECENT LLVL MIXING
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH
HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE HIT OR COME VERY
CLOSE ACROSS NRN SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES. OTHER AREAS ARE GUSTING
BETWEEN 45 TO 50 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH.
WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO CANCEL IT
EARLY. OTHERWISE...COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
I80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND RAWLINS WHICH MAY HAVE WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH AT TIMES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE...DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY...AND THEN INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY WIND CONCERNS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF
THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.
KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS ACROSS MOST AREAS DUE TO
A LINGERING SNOWPACK. THIS SNOWPACK SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA...THEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD BY FRI/SAT. THE 850 MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS A MAXIMIZED AT
45-50 METERS ON WED AFTN AND THEN DECREASES TO 20-30 METERS THROUGH
SAT.  DO NOT ENVISION ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE
WIND PRONE AREAS.  WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF 0-3C...HIGHS TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY.  BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND MUCH OF THE SNOW COVER SHOULD BE GONE ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 428 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LOW CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AREAS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT NO CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT



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