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000
FXUS65 KCYS 270033
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
633 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL REMAIN THERE THIS EVENING. A FEW CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT...OTHERWISE LOOKING AT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MADE TO REMOVE ALL
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE FORECAST RIGHT ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH JUST SOME CUMULUS AROUND
THE SRN MTNS. STILL COULD SEE AB IT OF CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER
EXTREME SE WY THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A GLANCING SHOT
OF ENERGY FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS COLORADO. ANY
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT BRINGING A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALSO SUPPRESS BETTER MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THUS A DRY DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CWA. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
TURN THE UPPER FLOW MORE NWLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE CWA ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME MOISTURE SHOULD EDGE BACK NORTHWARD OVER SE WY MONDAY
THUS SHOULD SEE SOME UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY CONTINUING ON A MORE ISOLATED BASIS MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NOTICEABLY COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONG MONSOON FOR NEXT WEEK
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL THREE MODELS
USED...NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING AN UPPER LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST
OUT OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BUT
GENERALLY ALL THREE ARE AGREEING WELL.

COULD BE SEEING WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS SOUNDINGS FOR RAWLINS
SHOWING PWATS OF 1.06 INCHES WITH FORECAST STORM MOTIONS NEARLY
STATIONARY. PWATS ARE HIGH ALL ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME
WITH FORECAST STORM MOTIONS NEARLY STATIONARY. NAM SOUNDINGS VERY
SIMILAR.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY WET AND CLOUDY DAY AS WELL WITH
UPSLOPING SOUTHEAST WINDS...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND COOL CONDITIONS.
GUIDANCE TRENDING PRETTY LOW ON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS HERE AT
CHEYENNE BARELY REACHING 70 DEGREES. COULD SEE A WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUD/FOG/LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

FINALLY BEGIN TO DRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. GETTING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THIS HAPPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED BETWEEN LARAMIE
AND CHEYENNE LATE TODAY...AND NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR AT ALL AVIATION FORECAST SITES OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR
TOMORROW...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE AREAS
AGAIN...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SO LIMITED IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
WE DIDNT INCLUDE A MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TOMORROW AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEING A LITTLE HIGHER. WINDS WILL ALSO NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG AS RECENT THUS CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...GARMON
FIRE WEATHER...RE