Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 150847

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
247 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Quite warm and generally dry weather will hold over the CWA today
through Sunday with upper ridging remaining over the area. Cannot
rule out a few showers or storms mainly over the mtns the next
couple afternoons and evenings, but a dry air mass will limit any
pcpn. Little change in temperatures today through Monday but some
increase in monsoonal moisture should lower max temps out west a
few degrees Monday. A little more convection also possible Monday
given the increased moisture and some weakening of the upper high
over the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Medium range models and their ensembles are consistent with the
position of the upper ridge through the week. The center of the
ridge meanders from the Four Corners to the south central Great
Plains. Gulf of Mexico and Pacific moisture will advect into the
region along the western periphery of the ridge. Convection will
be diurnal to start the period, but may become more widespread
and possibly linger into the late night hours Wednesday and
Thursday. Precipitable water (PWAT) values still progged to
increase to 1.00-1.50 inches by Thursday. Projected CAPEs and
0-6km shear values marginal for severe potential, but above normal
PWATs and weak storm motions indicate heavy rain potential. Above
average temperatures early in the week cool closer to seasonal
normals later in the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

VFR. Light winds early this morning will become east to southeast
10-15 kt with occasional gusts to near 20 kt during the afternoon.
Virtually little or no convection this afternoon due to the presence
of a stout upper ridge over the forecast area.


Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Fire weather concerns expected to remain on the low side into
early next week with mainly light winds through the period. Min
RHs lower to about 15-25% over much of the area today and Sunday,
then are expected to increase early next week. Mainly dry through
Sunday, then some increase in showers and storms early next week.




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