Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 230009 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
609 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.UPDATE...for the early evening aviation forecast package update.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Shortwave lifting north across Wyoming has fired off some showers
and storms over the far northeast part of the CWA this afternoon.
More isolated activity over far southeastern Wyoming around the
mtns. This will continue into this evening before dissipating with
the loss of heating and departure of the shortwave to the northeast.

Later tonight, a cool front will move across the CWA bringing minor
cooling for Saturday. A second push of cooler air is expected Saturday
night as a shortwave moves across the northern Rockys into the
northern plains bringing temperatures closer to seasonal averages
for Sunday. Monsoonal moisture will also be reduced over the area
this weekend as the upper flow turns more westerly, so mainly dry
weather expected both days. A few showers or storms still possible
Saturday afternoon and evening over far southeast Wyoming where
upslope flow and some moisture may be sufficient.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

The upper ridge axis over central and southern Rockies Monday will
continue to retrograde westward across the Four Corners and Great
Basin through the end of the next week. The ECMWF has been trending
higher with convective coverage than the GFS. With the ridge overhead
Monday, diurnal convection that forms will be isolated and confined
to the higher terrain near the CO border. The remainder of the week
may be more convectively active east of the Laramie Range as the
northwest flow aloft brings a series of weak shortwaves southeast
across the high plains. The threat for severe thunderstorms will
be marginal, especially Thursday and Friday with 0-6km bulk shear
of 30-40 kt and 1000-1500 j/kg CAPE. Temperatures Monday through
Wednesday will average above seasonal normals with highs in the
mid 80s-mid 90s. For the latter part of the week, a cool front may
bring some relief with high temperatures moderating back to the 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 604 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving across the western
Nebraska Panhandle will gradually weaken and move out to the east
of Chadron, Alliance and Sidney through 02Z. Will have a few
lighter showers moving through the Rawlins area through 03Z as
well. Otherwise, after the storms die off expect VFR overnight
into tomorrow with a weakening cold front moving through early
tomorrow morning (little moisture and instability to focus
thunderstorm development).


Issued at 225 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Warm and mainly dry weather is expected over the districts for the
weekend. Some elevated fire weather concerns will be possible over
far western and northern districts Saturday afternoon with a little
more wind combining with low afternoon humidities.


.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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