Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 311101
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
501 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

A cool and moist air mass is in place across the area this morning
in the wake of a strong cold fropa late Monday evening. Patchy fog
has developed over the I-80 summit in response to low temperature/
dewpoint spreads and weak upslope flow in the lower levels. Webcam
information shows visibilities above one half mile, so a Dense Fog
Advisory does not appear necessary at this time. Still seeing some
shower activity, mainly across east central WY and the northern NE
panhandle as a strong mid-level shortwave sweeps across eastern MT
into the western Dakotas. Ongoing activity is expected to diminish
by mid morning as dynamic forcing shifts eastward, but we may very
well see another round of showers and thunderstorms over the south
Laramie Range and adjacent foothills this afternoon with low-level
upslope in place. H7 temperatures between 0C and +3C suggests high
temperatures around 10-15 degrees cooler than Monday. Broad upper-
level ridging will take shape for the remainder of the period into
Wed/Thu, with deep subsidence giving way to a trend toward warmer/
drier conditions. There is potential for widespread 80s across the
high plains on Thursday as H7 temperatures climb to +10 to +12 deg
C over the entire forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Long term dominated by high pressure with warm and dry weather
for the most part. Do have a dry front indicated on GFS and ECMWF
that moves into the area from the north Friday night into
Saturday, shifting winds to the north and northeast. Not any
moisture associated with it though.

Next chance for showers appears to be next Monday when the next
shortwave moves in from the west. Mainly mountain showers and
thunderstorms though at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 500 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

VFR conditions the remainder of the day with less coverage of
thunderstorms. Convection mainly confined to KCYS and KLAR this
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Minimal fire weather concerns over the next several days with non-
critical fuels and humidities/winds generally remaining outside of
critical thresholds. A cold front moved across the area during the
late evening hours on Monday, so high temperatures on Tuesday will
be 10-15 degrees cooler than those seen on Monday with minimum rhs
generally above 30 percent across all districts. Much warmer/drier
conditions are still expected later this week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 314 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

The North Platte and Laramie Rivers will continue to run high
this week. Warmer temperatures from mid-week through the weekend
will increase snowmelt once again, with rises on area rivers,
creeks and streams by the weekend.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
HYDROLOGY...REC/MAJ



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