Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 022312
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
512 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Main focus was on late this evening and through the overnight hours.
Relied more on the ARW/NMMB models as the operational NAM looks quite
aggressive with QPF fields. The net result is that there could be enough
warm air advection and isentropic live spreading across the southern
zones for rain and eventually snow showers. Plumes vary with total snowfall
amounts, with some values at advisory criteria. Thermo fields from the
more aggressive models look strange with the lower atm too warm yet
accumulating snow. Will start out with a more conservative approach.
Areas south of Dodge to Liberal could see an inch of snow. The ground
is fairly warm, the event is during the morning on a weekend, and the
DGZ looks marginal. Therefore, will not be issuing a winter weather
advisory, but did increase total snowfall amounts. Seward and Meade
counties could see the most snowfall. These amounts will likely need
to be fine tuned as we go through the evening bearing out WSR-88D trends
and observations. Impacts overall should be on the low side given the
weekend and time of day. I did undercut highs for tomorrows in these
areas with the most snowfall just a bit below guidance. Tonights lows
should be more mild with all the cloud cover as the atm moistens top
down.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Next item of interest is Tuesday and Wednesday. The 12Z EC looks a little
less impressive than the 00Z counterpart in terms of precipitation potential.
There is still large uncertainty this far out, so will continue with
the fb pops for now. There will be wind with this second system as
a strong high pressure center moves across the Plains. There is a concern
for blowing snow if enough snowfalls. Again, the 12Z EC is drier, so
time and evolving details with bear this out. Regardless, it still looks
much colder next week. ECE guidance keeps Dodge in the 20s next week,
which is colder than what fb produces. Wait and see, but the trend is
there.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 507 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Moisture and isentropic lift will be on the increase overnight.
The increasing mid level moisture will thicken and lower across
western Kansas through 06z. These VFR ceilings at 06z will then
lower into the MVFR category through 09z Saturday, especially at
GCK and DDC. IFR to LIFR conditions are then expected towards 12z
Saturday. In addition to the lowering ceilings overnight there
will be a chance for some light snow, mainly between 06z and 18z
Saturday. Visibilities may also be reduced late tonight into early
Saturday into the 2-4sm range at times from the light snow and
possibly areas of fog. Northeasterly winds at 10 knot or less will
gradually become easterly at around 10 knots during the day on
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  37  26  50 /  50  40  20   0
GCK  28  38  23  49 /  40  20  10   0
EHA  26  36  22  49 /  60  20  10   0
LBL  30  35  25  49 /  70  50  20   0
HYS  30  40  26  50 /  20  20  10   0
P28  36  44  33  53 /  40  50  50   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert



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