Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171756
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1256 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

A few showers/isolated thunderstorms may linger across central and
eastern portions of southwest Kansas early this morning as an upper
level shortwave lifts northeast out of northeast Colorado across
northwest Kansas and into southwest Nebraska. A southeast upslope
flow and enough instability will be present to support possible
periods of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms through this
evening. Meanwhile, upper level ridging will begin to slowly build
in across the Central Rockies to finish out the period Monday night.
A warming trend will continue today as prevailing southerlies
draw warmer air northward into western Kansas. Should see highs
well up into the 90s(F) this afternoon with lows generally down
into the 70s(F) tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Hot and dry conditions are likely through the end of the week as
upper level ridging sets up and dominates across the Central Plains
for much of the period. An extremely weak flow aloft associated with
the upper high centered across the region will cap precip chances
through at least Thursday. Prevailing southerlies during the entire
week and ridging aloft will allow highs to climb well into the mid
to upper 90s(F) each day with some locations seeing highs pushing
above 100F by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

A weak midlevel shortwave will exit the Rockies into the central
high plains region this evening, and will likely help develop
convection across southwest Nebraska into northwest and north
central Kansas late this evening into the early morning hours.
Given the model output from the convective allowing models and
environment, the threat appears mainly general thunderstorms with
a relatively low risk of organized severe weather, and most likely
relegated to the HYS terminal region. Marginal LLWS shear should
also develop in the lowest 2000 ft during the early morning
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  71  97  72 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  94  70  97  71 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  95  69  97  69 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  96  70  98  71 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  95  72  99  73 /  20  20   0   0
P28  95  72  98  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Russell



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