Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 012341
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
641 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS
THE RIDGE TRANSITIONS THROUGH, AN AXIS OF H5 VORT MAXIMA ARE
PROJECTED TO KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY WEAK, AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS PROVIDING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG OUT
BY THE COLORADO BORDER. ADDITIONALLY, THE SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL PROVIDE A CORRIDOR OF INCREASED
CONVERGENCE. AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS A RESULT OF
DAYTIME HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE WITH A FEW STORMS
POTENTIALLY DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS
EVENING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF
STRONG DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT, AMPLE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES COULD HEIGHTEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

A WARMING TREND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS
A BIT. AS A RESULT, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ONLY INTO THE 60S(F)
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO WILL ENHANCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY WARMING H85 TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER WITH
THE LOWER TO MID 20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE UPPER 20S(C)
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL
UP INTO THE 80S(F) TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 90F OR ABOVE POSSIBLE IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CHANGING TO A MUCH WARMER
SUMMER LIKE PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE, ALBEIT LOW AMPLITUDE WILL
BRING FAR WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AS
WELL AS SUBSIDENCE FOR A WARMER BOUNDARY/NEAR SURFACE LAYER. TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DO NOT LOOK CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE, ALTHOUGH BETTER
CHANCES ARE PLAUSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE MODELS HINT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WITH +13 TO +14 DEGREE C AT THE 700 MB LEVEL SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT VERY FAR SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY. A
SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART SHOULD PULL DRIER AIR INTO THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, LIMITING THE
MOISTURE. THE MODELS FAVOR A SURGE OF PRECIPITABLE  WATER
WESTWARD AGAIN TOWARDS LATE IN THE WEEK, AS A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP AND BE MAINTAINED HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST
POPS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD RETURN TO THIS TIMEFRAME.

THE WARMEST DAYS AS FAR AS AFTERNOON HIGHS AS WELL AS MILD
OVERNIGHTS FALL IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SURFACE FRONT INFLUENCES THE AREA. HOWEVER TEMPS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS MOSTLY AND 60S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

FOR TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL MOST LIKELY DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AS THEY APPROACH THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER, SO WE
WILL KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT, AND A CORRIDOR
OF LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS IS NOT A VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST, HOWEVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD IFR IN THE
TAF AND SEE NO LEGITIMATE REASON TO REMOVE THE IFR CEILING. THE
GREATEST TIME FRAME IMPACT WILL BE 10-14Z. ANY IFR CEILING SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER 14Z WITH ONSET OF STRONG INSOLATION. FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 24 KNOTS AND GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  85  66  88 /  30  10  10  10
GCK  62  87  65  88 /  30  10  10  10
EHA  63  90  60  91 /  40  10  10   0
LBL  63  88  64  92 /  30  10  10   0
HYS  60  85  68  86 /  20  20  10  10
P28  62  85  68  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



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