Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 270311
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1011 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF A LINE FROM MFI-IMT OVERNIGHT. ISSUED AN
ESF/SPS TO COVER MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION
OF TSTMS OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK/NIL. EAST CENTRAL WI IS
BEING DRY-SLOTTED BUT SHOWERS SHOULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT/WEDS AM
AS ANOTHER S/W TROF ROTATES THROUGH.

FOGGY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKESHORE ARE IMPROVING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS EVG AS THE SFC LIFTS NORTH AND SSW WINDS DEVELOP.
FOG MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVER NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY
BEFORE MOVG OUT. HAVE KEPT THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
GOING FOR NOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AT 19Z...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA WITH WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...THEN AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
COMMA HEAD REGION WHICH WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL
GET DRY SLOTTED TONIGHT...LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
AREAL COVERAGE.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER SOME SUN WAS BREAKING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
SPC DAY 1 STILL INDICATED MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DO EXPECT SOME STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THUS COULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO.

ALSO...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY AS 500MB TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THEN WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH
EDGING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH JET ENERGY MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THEY
SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT SATURDAY BY NOON WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR IS SO DRY AND
COOL THAT THERE MAY BE A FROST IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN (HEAVY AT TIMES) AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WI
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDS. A DRY SLOT WILL BRING A TEMPORARY LULL
IN THE SHOWERS IN THE FOX VALLEY/LAKESHORE AREAS...BUT SHOWERS
SHOULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN WI. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVG HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.

DENSE MARINE FOG MAY IMPACT NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

WILL CONTINUE A FORECAST OF LLWS IN THE GRB/ATW/MTW TAF SITES FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH SW WINDS REMAINING AROUND 40
KTS JUST OFF THE SFC.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH


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