Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

FXUS63 KGRB 162001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
301 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected for the
remainder of the afternoon through Wednesday. First round of
showers and thunderstorms moving across central Wisconsin
this afternoon. These storms were producing locally heavy rain and
frequent lightning. Marshfield was down to 1/2 mile in heavy rain
a little while ago. This round of showers and thunderstorms should
stay mainly north and west of the Fox Valley this afternoon.

Attention then turns to more convection developing along a cold
front west of the area this afternoon. Convection should develop
along the front and then move into central and north-central
Wisconsin this evening. Enough shear present to provide a small
risk of severe weather. Somewhat concerned that convection
this afternoon could limit severe potential, but think some
destabilization can be anticipated late this afternoon and
early this evening to continue the risk.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
develop west of the area later tonight and move across
central and north-central after midnight. Most of the
shower and thunderstorm activity should stay north and
west of the Fox Valley.

Attention then turns to Wednesday where there is a slight risk
of severe thunderstorm. Some of these storms could become severe
with damaging winds and large hail. There is some uncertainty
due to cloud cover and ongoing convection Wednesday morning, but
greatest risk of severe thunderstorms would be across northeast
and east-central Wisconsin. Highs on Wednesday will be tricky
depending on cloud cover and rain, ranging from the lower to
middle 60s far north to the upper 70s far east.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Models are in general agreement with the overall mean flow into
early next week. The initial shortwave trough will continue to
lift northeast through the Great Lakes Wednesday night/Thursday
and bring additional showers/thunderstorms to northeast WI. An
upstream shortwave trough is then expected to settle over the
central Rockies late week before lifting north-northeast through
the Upper MS Valley this weekend and bringing the next chance for
precipitation to the forecast area. The unsettled weather pattern
persists into early next week as another shortwave trough/cold
front sweeps into the Great Lakes around Tuesday. Temperatures
will take a nosedive starting on Thursday and remain cool through
Saturday before readings get closer to normal early next week.

Wednesday night looks wet, plain and simple as the surface low/
cold front and mid-level shortwave trough moves into the western
Great Lakes. Instability is moderately-strong initially with Capes
in the 1000-1500 J/KG range and LI`s in the -3 to -8 range in the
evening. SPC`s marginal/slight risk of severe thunderstorms still
looks valid based on these parameters. There will also be plenty
of moisture available with dew points in the 50s to lower 60s and
PW values in the 1.00-1.50" range, thus localized heavy rainfall
does exist Wednesday night. The higher rain potential would be
along and left of the track of the surface low, which right now
would be across central WI. Thus, north-central WI would see the
higher QPF values. Min temperatures may be tricky depending on how
fast the cold front shifts east. The NAM is farthest east and
seems too quick with the surface low lifting northeast along the
boundary. Prefer the milder readings with upper 40s to lower 50s
north-central, upper 50s to lower 60s east-central WI.

The surface low quickly exits the region Thursday morning dragging
the cold front across the rest of WI by Thursday afternoon.
Showers are a good bet Thursday morning (especially north) until
the frontal passage occurs, then drier/more stable air mass begins
to advect into the area. The biggest change will be temperatures
as readings fall behind the front into the 40s north, 50s south by
late afternoon.

As an area of high pressure sinks south into northern sections of
North Dakota and Minnesota Thursday night, skies will clear and
temperatures will drop accordingly. Depending on wind speeds,
there is a possibility of frost across the north as min
temperatures fall into the lower 30s. Even central WI is
vulnerable with middle 30s, however some clouds may start to
return toward daybreak which would limit the frost threat. This
area of high pressure moves east across northern sections of the
Great Lakes on Friday, but clouds will already be starting to
increase in advance of the next weather system pushing across the
central/southern Rockies. In fact, the CMC already brings light
rain into the southern half of WI Friday afternoon. For now, will
thicken the clouds and bring a small pop into at least central WI
for later on Friday. Coolest temperatures of the extended forecast
will be on Friday with readings in the lower 50s near Lake MI,
middle to upper 50s elsewhere.

As this mid-level shortwave trough lifts northeast into the Plains
Friday night into Saturday, low pressure and its associated cold
front will also move northeast across the Upper MS Valley/Midwest
and bring showers/possible thunderstorms to northeast WI. The
higher pops would occur on Saturday as the cold front pushes
toward WI. Instability is rather weak with this system, thus a
severe threat appears minimal at this time. The gulf is open,
however, thus locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out. Temperatures
to remain below normal, though not as cool as Thursday
night/Friday. Look for max temperatures on Saturday to range from
the middle to upper 50s north/lakeside, upper 50s to lower 60s

The showers would then continue through Saturday night as the cold
front moves across WI and the surface low tracks northeast into
Ontario. Models are having timing issues as to how fast this
system will pull away from Wisconsin as we head into Sunday. The
ECMWF is actually the fastest with the clearing trend, whereas the
CMC holds precipitation chances into Monday. Too much uncertainty
to simply go dry, thus have left small chance pops in the forecast
on Sunday. Temperatures will edge higher with readings in the
upper 50s north-central, lower to middle 60s south.

After a brief respite Sunday night/Monday, precipitation chances
return again by Tuesday as the next mid-level shortwave trough/
surface cold front sweeps into the western Great Lakes.
Temperatures will continue to edge higher with readings Monday and
Tuesday just a bit below normal.

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1059 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Active weather pattern expected through Wednesday night
into Thursday morning with several rounds of thunderstorms.
For early this afternoon, first round of showers and thunderstorms
will move across north-central and far northeast Wisconsin. Have
included thunderstorms in the KRHI taf forecast. Some of the
meso models depict thunderstorms reaching KGRB around 22z, thus
will need to monitor and add to forecast at the last minute for
this site. Meanwhile, a warm front pushing north into northern
Wisconsin and a cold front to the west of the area will be the
focus for more thunderstorm activity late this afternoon or
early this evening and then work into northeast Wisconsin by
late evening or early Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, another
thunderstorm complex across Iowa tonight will move across the
region late tonight into Wednesday morning. Some of the stronger
thunderstorms could produce damaging winds and large hail, along
with torrential rain. Some IFR CIGS continued late this morning
across the north and should lift into the MVFR category this
afternoon. More low clouds and fog is expected late tonight
again across the north.



SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......Kallas
AVIATION.......Eckberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.