Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 311726
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN. GROUND FOG
WAS COMMON NEAR THE LAKESHORE AND ALSO SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT PROBABLY NOT AS MUCH AS THE LAST
TWO NIGHTS. IT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. TUESDAY SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM AS AN UPPER JET GOES BY AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A STABLE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING OVERHEAD.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST
LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.  THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF OR ENSEMBLE
MEANS WITH THIS FRONT...AND PREFER THE NON-GFS SOLUTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
EXITING LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH SOME MODELS LIKE THE
GEM AND ECMWF AND NAM SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF...FORCING IS NOTICEABLY
ABSENT...SO WILL STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST.  ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND HANG AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS POPPING UP GIVEN THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE.  SO WILL KEEP CHANCES AT OR BELOW 20 PCT.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM THREAT WILL
CARRY OVER INTO THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY EXITS.  STILL THINK
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY DESPITE MODELS SHOWING A CHANCE OF
RAIN.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG A STRONG
COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY OR INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LAST OF THE IFR/MVFR CIGS FROM MORNING STRATUS TO DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME MIXING FINALLY GETS RID OF THIS LOW CLOUD
DECK. HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED SYNOPTICALLY WITH HI
PRES BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TO OUR WEST. A PREVAILING SW FLOW
ALOFT WL CONT TO BRING GULF MOISTURE NWD AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
TNGT...LOOK FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP OVER NE WI. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN LAST NGT...THUS THE DEPTH
OF FOG MAY NOT BE AS BAD LEAVING IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR LATE TNGT
INTO TUE MORNING. LESS STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICKER
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION BY LATE TUE MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK


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