000
FXUS63 KGRB 062049
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
249 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

WARM AIR IS MOVING NORTH AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WILL
TRACK ACROSS REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS WILL ALLOW MORE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDING DATA FROM 06/12Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST A LIGHT
MIX OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPGLIDE VIA LOW-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT. AHEAD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS IN.

TEMPS FRIDAY SHOULD TURN WARM ENOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT MIX POTENTIAL IN THE HWO ONLY DUE TO
CHC POPS AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE LATER FRIDAY WILL END THE THE
PCPN THREAT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY...AS TIMING OF CLOUD COVER
WILL HAVE EFFECT ON EVENTUAL MINS. EXPECT COLDEST TEMPS IN
EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA. WILL SIDE WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER
06/12Z MOS GUIDANCE IN THE EAST...WHICH IN REALITY ISN`T THAT MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN BEST-PERFORMING BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW EARLY...AND JUST SNOW TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S ON SATURDAY...BEFORE RETURN FLOW
BRINGS WARMER AIR FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD AT LEAST RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MIDDLE 40S ON MONDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD ON LATER FORECAST IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION. AFTER THAT...A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN NOAM.

MODELS HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLIPPER
SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION STARTING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO THERE ARE PLENTY OF SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. POPS WILL MAINLY BE
HIGHER IN AND/OR CONFINED TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

WARM AIR MOVING OVER THE COLD SURFACE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME
IFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES OVER PORTIONS THE AREA...HOWEVER THEY
SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE TAF SITES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH A MVFR DECK. THE MVFR CIGS WILL
ARRIVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT RHI/AUW/CWA...WITH SCATTERED MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN WI AS DRIER AIR WILL HOLD ON A
LITTLE LONGER.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOME IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE
AREA DRY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX
WILL INCREASE FIRST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING...THEN SOME RAIN COULD MIX IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......BERSCH