Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 011748
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

QUIET SUMMER WEATHER. SEASONABLY COOL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN
WARMER FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.

UPR ANTICYCLONE PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WL REMAIN IN PLACE
ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN SHIFT WNWWD/REFORM OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THAT WL ALLOW THE DOWNSTREAM UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
RGN TO GRADUALLY FILL. THOSE CHGS WL RESULT IN THE NWLY UPR FLOW
INTO THE FCST AREA VEERING MORE WLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND PROBABLY FOR NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WL START OUT BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE NWLY UPR
FLOW...THEN MODERATE BACK TO NR OR A LITTLE ABV NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND. READINGS COULD FALL OFF A BIT AGAIN EARLY NEXT WK AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE NWLY UPR FLOW EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WL KEEP DRY CANADIAN AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE RGN...SO
PCPN CHCS WL BE LIMITED UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. EVEN THAT
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A GREAT PCPN PRODUCER...SO PCPN AMNTS WL
PROBABLY END UP AOB NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TRANQUIL WX THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS WERE QUITE CHILLY
OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY NRN WI REPORTING STNS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S.

BAND OF CLDS DROPPING SWD OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN
WL CLIP ERN WI AT LEAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT JUST SOME
PASSING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MIDDLE CLDS DURING THE SHORT-TERM. DRY
AIR AND SUNSHINE WL RESULT IN FAIRLY LARGE DAILY TEMPERATURE
RANGES. HIGHS TDA SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YDA DUE TO THE ADDED
SUNSHINE IN MOST AREAS. MINS TNGT WL BE QUITE CHILLY AGAIN...BUT
PROBABLY NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING. MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WL RESULT IN A BIT WARMER TEMPS THU...EXCEPT NR LAKE MICHIGAN WERE
A MORE ELY FLOW WL DRIVE LAKE-COOLING FARTHER INLAND. OVERALL...A
BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS RESULTED IN PRETTY
REASONABLE LOOKING MAX TEMP GRIDS...THOUGH SOME ADJUSTMENT WAS
NEEDED NR THE LAKE AND BAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE FLOW
FLATTENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK....WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
MODELS HAVE A VARIETY SOLUTIONS...BUT THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER.  WILL RELY ON THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WISCONSIN WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO FRONTS...ONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ANOTHER OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY NIGHT.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD YIELD A MOSTLY CLEAR AND
QUIET NIGHT.  THE FRONT OVER ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.  AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN WISCONSIN...A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH.  THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT STALLS OVER WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  UPPER SUPPORT
PULLS AWAY BY THIS TIME...SO CANNOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED MENTION.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MODELS SPIT OUT QPF ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
ON SATURDAY...BUT CANNOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT.  TEND TO THINK GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE.  THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING IN
WARMER AIR.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z AT MTW WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTRORE REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME
CHANCE OF GROUND FOG PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z
OVER EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM


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