Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRB 082111
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
311 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

COLDER WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE NR
THE WEST COAST AND A TROF OVER ERN NOAM. THE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY
QUITE AMPLIFIED. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN WL FLUCTUATE A BIT
DURING THE WEEK...BEFORE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLATTENING OCCURS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NWLY UPR FLOW WL DIRECT COLD AIR FM CANADA ACRS THE FCST AREA.
TEMPS WL QUICKLY SETTLE TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...THEN REMAIN THERE
FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WHEN A REINFORCING
PUSH OF COLD AIR FM VERY HIGH LATITUDES SURGES ACRS THE AREA. THE
PATTERN FAVORS CONSIDERABLE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...AMNTS WL BE LGT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
LAKE-SUPERIOR SNOWBELT...WHERE HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SNOW IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WERE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY
AWAY FROM WISCONSIN. MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEMS WERE BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE THERE WERE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. WINDS
WERE INCREASING AND TEMPERATURES FALLING ON NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND A
RIDGE OVER ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.

ASIDE FROM THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NORTH...SNOW SHOWERS WERE MORE
NUMEROUS OVER EASTERN THAN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. QPF FROM 12Z MODEL
RUNS INDICATED THAT SNOW WOULD SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST...AND
BE FINISHED IN ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE EXCEPTION IS
IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE WINDS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND 12Z GFS TIME/HEIGHT PLOT HAD
MEASURABLE SNOW GOING AT IRON WOOD ALL THE WAY THROUGH 6 PM
SATURDAY. BASED ON THE FEW TOTALS WE RECEIVED IN VILAS
COUNTY...SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING ANY ONE PERIOD SHOULD NOT BE
VERY HIGH. ALSO...DID NOT SEE ANY REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW
OCCURRING IN UPPER MICHIGAN OR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HAVE LEFT THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT WAS FOR VILAS COUNTY. WILL LET THE
EVENING SHIFT DECIDE WHETHER IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.

EXPECT COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. IT WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

NOT MUCH TO LATCH ONTO TO HELP WITH FORECAST DETAILS IN THE LONG
TERM PART OF THE FORECAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FLURRIES ELSEWHERE WILL GRADUALLY END. TRENDED
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH SKYCON...AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IS
LIKELY TO KEEP SC DRIFTING ACRS THE FCST AREA AT TIMES. RAISED
MINS OVER N-C WI TUE NGT WITH THE EXPECTATION OF HAVING MORE CLDS.
STUCK WITH COLDER MINS WED NGT...AS THERE IS A BETTER CHC OF
GETTING MORE SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLDS BY THEN. TRENDED
TOWARD A BLEND OF ECMWF-DERIVED GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR MAX
TEMPS...AS THOSE HAVE BEEN VERIFYING WELL LATELY.

A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD IS LIKELY TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...AND LINGER FOR AT LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE PRETTY MODEST WITH PCPN WITH THE SHRTWV
PRECEDING THE COLD ANTICYCLONE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
TREND TOWARD A BIT MORE PCPN AS WE NEAR THE EVENT.

NO SIG CHGS WERE NEEDED TO EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION GRIDS
GENERATED FM A BROAD-BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CIGS ACROSS THE AREA WERE MAINLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...AND VSBYS
WERE MOSTLY VFR. VSBYS DROPPED TO MVFR...AND IFR AT TIMES...IN
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOST WIDESPREAD IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN AND IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT AT MIDDAY. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY
EVENING....BEFORE THINGS WINDS DOWN IN ALL BUT THE SNOWBELT.
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT...THAT WAS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MG


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.