Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 150325

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1025 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Partly cloudy skies prevailed across the region this afternoon.
Temperatures at mid afternoon were in the middle 50s to lower 60s
with a gusty south wind at 10 to 20 mph.

For tonight, low clouds across Iowa and southern Minnesota will
continue to stream northward, spreading into central and north-
central Wisconsin after midnight, and then into northeast
Wisconsin around sunrise. Models showing some 850mb warm
advection, some upward vertical motion around 700mb, and little
moisture at 700mb would support drizzle. Went with drizzle late
tonight and Saturday morning, then went with showery type
precipitation Saturday afternoon. There is still a chance of
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon as the front moves into the
area. Severe storms are not expected at this time, however some
stronger storms are possible across the southern Fox Valley east
to Manitowoc County where a few breaks in the clouds are possible
Saturday afternoon. Did not stray far from previous forecasts on
min temperatures tonight and max temperatures Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Milder than normal weather should continue at least
until the middle or end of next week, as the models feature nearly
zonal flow with Pacific air being brought across the continent.
There are a few systems to make forecasting interesting. The first
upper system and associated surface front will be exiting the region
Saturday night with showers and a few thunderstorms ending by daybreak
Sunday. There is some potential for gusty winds and very heavy across
east central Wisconsin Saturday evening as precipitable water values
are around 1.5 Inches and there is a fairly strong wind field.

Sunday should be dry for the most part, but an upper system and
warm front will be approaching Sunday night and moving across the
area Sunday night and Monday. This should bring showers and
elevated thunderstorms. A cold front moves across the area Monday
afternoon or Monday night.

Generally cooler and drier air is expected for most of the middle
and end of next week.

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

The main aviation forecast concern continues to be the speed at
which low clouds will ovespread the area during the next 12
hours. The initial portion of the low cloud deck headed into the
area has dissipated. So will adjust to slow the arrival of the low
clouds across the west. Still think the clouds will reach the east
toward morning. Will also continue the LLWS overnight.

Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

A gale warning remains in effect for the central bay of Green Bay
and the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan north of Sturgeon Bay
into Saturday night. For the southern bay of Green Bay and the
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan south of Sturgeon Bay, a small
craft advisory remains in effect into Saturday night. Gusty winds
and high waves will make for hazardous boating conditions.



SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
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