000
FXUS63 KGRB 112353
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
653 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER
DYNAMICS TONIGHT BUT HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
NORTH...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX...AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM MOS POPS WERE IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON WHILE 12Z GFS MOS POPS WERE ONLY CHANCE
OR SLIGHT CHANCE. NAM WAS SHOWING AROUND 2000J/KG SBCAPE WITH
LITTLE TO NO CIN AT GRB AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...WHILE GFS
WAS AROUND 1000J/KG. SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK EXTENDED INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH ALL OF THIS IN
MIND...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT EASTERN
COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN IT SHOULD BE QUIET UNTIL THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW
AND COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PROBABLY DIURNALLY ENHANCED TO SOME
EXTENT. COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARGUE FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT THE MOS GUIDANCE HAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF HIGHS DO NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S IN THE NORTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL NOT BE EXCEPTIONALLY COOL DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND A BREEZE. COULD GET A VERY COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
LATER IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW DEPARTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVG THROUGH MN WILL REACH NW WI LATE TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. ISOLD TSTMS HAD
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVG...AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE
DEVELOPING NEAR THE WI/UPPER MI BORDER. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING
ACROSS WI...INCLUDING AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO SHIFT EAST...REACHING
THE RHI/AUW/CWA TAF SITES LATER THIS EVG...AND GRB/ATW/MTW LATE
TONIGHT. THE CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT THE WSTRN TAF SITES
LATE...AND SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PCPN CHANCES
ARE FAIRLY LOW FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT SHOULD INCREASE
QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER TSTM DEVELOPMENT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z/SAT. HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO MOST OF THE
TAF SITES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH