Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 311917
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
217 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A WARM/MOIST AIR
MASS OVERHEAD...LIGHT WINDS AND NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS
AND FOG THAT HAS TAKEN LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED IN DISSIPATING THE
NEXT DAY. THIS IS THE CONTINUAL CONUNDRUM HEADED INTO LATE TNGT/
TUE MORNING WITH MORE STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED. ANOTHER CONCERN WL
BE THE SMALL CHC OF SEEING PCPN REACH N-CNTRL TUE AFTERNOON.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK HI PRES OVER ERN SECTIONS OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK CDFNT THAT STRETCHED FROM EXTREME WRN
ONTARIO S-SW INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. VSBL SATL IMAGERY INDICATED
THE LAST OF THE STUBBORN STRATUS OVER CNTRL WI BREAKING UP...ONLY
TO BE REPLACED BY FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY.

BOTH THE SFC HI AND UPR RDG AXIS TO BE SITUATED OVER THE ERN CONUS
TNGT...WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW TO BE LOCATED OVER ERN SD ALONG THE
CDFNT. THIS WOULD KEEP A PREVAILING SW FLOW ALOFT AIMED AT WI WITH
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO BE FED NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD STRATUS/DENSE FOG FROM
DEVELOPING...HOWEVER STILL ANTICIPATE LOW CLOUDS/AREAS OF FOG TO
REDEVELOP LATER TNGT. MARINE DENSE FOG TO PERSIST DUE TO COOL
NEARSHORE LAKE TEMPS AND WARM/MOIST AIR MASS OVERHEAD. MIN TEMPS
TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LWR 60S (COOL LOCATIONS) TO THE UPR
60S (TYPICAL WARMER LOCATIONS).

ONCE THE MORNING CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES TUE MORNING...A VERY WARM
AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED OVER NE WI AS 8H TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
+20C. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE THE APPROACH OF THE
WEAK CDFNT THAT IS FCST TO REACH NW WI TUE AFTERNOON. THERE WL
ALSO BE A LITTLE EXTRA LIFT PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPR JET AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH CAPES APPROACHING
1500 J/KG. DESPITE THE WEAK NATURE OF THE CDFNT...PREFER TO KEEP A
MINIMAL POP OVER N-CNTRL WI TUE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 80 NEAR LAKE MI...LWR TO MID 80S NORTH AND MID 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW AT THE SFC
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER...ALONG
WITH PERIODIC NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS AND DENSE MARINE FOG. PCPN
SHOULD BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT UNTIL THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME...WHEN
A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING IS STILL
SUSPECT WITH THIS FEATURE. UNTIL THEN...WILL JUST CARRY SMALL
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN WI WED/WED NGT...AS A WEAK S/W TROF TOPS
THE RIDGE. WILL ALSO LEAVE THE SMALL POPS FROM THE MODEL BLEND
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS
LOW...AND MUCH OF THE PERIOD MAY END UP DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ANY
EXTENSIVE NIGHTTIME STRATUS OR FOG MAY HOLD TEMPS BACK ON AT
LEAST A FEW OF THE DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LAST OF THE IFR/MVFR CIGS FROM MORNING STRATUS TO DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME MIXING FINALLY GETS RID OF THIS LOW CLOUD
DECK. HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED SYNOPTICALLY WITH HI
PRES BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TO OUR WEST. A PREVAILING SW FLOW
ALOFT WL CONT TO BRING GULF MOISTURE NWD AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
TNGT...LOOK FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP OVER NE WI. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN LAST NGT...THUS THE DEPTH
OF FOG MAY NOT BE AS BAD LEAVING IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR LATE TNGT
INTO TUE MORNING. LESS STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICKER
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION BY LATE TUE MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......AK



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