Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 260330
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1030 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATED THE POP/WX/QPF TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLD/SCT WEAK CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL ARRIVE TUES
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AS A STRONG SFC WAVE LIFTS NE ALONG THE
LINGERING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND A POTENT S/W TROF MOVES
INTO THE REGION. SEVERAL MODELS DEPICTING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER C/NC/FAR NE WI LATE TUES INTO TUES NGT...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLODDING DUE TO RUNOFF FROM SATURATED SOILS.
MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTEMTS TO QPF TUES AFT AND NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS HEAVY RAIN. MOST
LOCATIONS SAW BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN. LATEST RADAR
IMAGES FROM KGRB INDICATED SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT HAVING A HARD TIME DOING SO DUE TO WARM
LAYER ALOFT. MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
THAT MAY BE A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.

MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS TO CHOOSE FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOR PLACEMENT
OF HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...LOCATION OF HIGHEST CHANCES AND IF
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS FEATURE AS WELL. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS TAKE THE CONVECTION
ACROSS IOWA AND WORK IT INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING. BASED ON MOVEMENT OF
STORMS...THIS SEEMED REASONABLE AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THINK BEST OF POTENTIAL FOR THIS TYPE OF
STORM WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  MEANWHILE...
A FEW OTHER MODELS DEVELOP SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND THAT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
(NAM MODEL). HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATES THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME
OF THE LATEST MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. DID LOWER THE HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD END
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THEN DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO WHETHER THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY OR WHETHER
A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT AND SLOWS IT DOWN. AFTER THAT A NICE COOL
SURFACE HIGH ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA THAT SHOULD PRODUCE COOL
AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN ALL OF THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NC WI. STRONGER BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG FROM OCCURRING AT
ATW/GRB/MTW...BUT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
RHI/AUW/CWA TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUES. LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TUES AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER C/NC/FAR NE WI. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE THE LLWS IN THE ATW/GRB/MTW TAF SITES TIL ABOUT
DAYBREAK. SW WINDS AROUND 40 KTS WILL OCCUR JUST ABOVE THE SFC.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH


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