Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 290339
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1039 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  CLOSER TO
HOME...TEMPERATURES REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH A CONVERGENCE AXIS...HAS LED TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  A FEW OTHER ISOLATED FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.CELLS
HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER MARATHON AND WAUPACA COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS
HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...SO
THINK THIS WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY OF STORMS IN CHECK. BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE ML CAPES
ARE SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A NEAR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN ONGOING STORMS AND THE
INCOMING PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE...PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY MID-EVENING.  FOLLOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNRISE...CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING
AND PRECIP WILL BE APPROACHING WOOD COUNTY BY 09Z.  SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDESTORMS WILL THEN BE SPREADING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MEAGER SO THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.  MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACKING OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING.  THFOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.E MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY. IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF SHOW BETWEEN 500 AND
750 J/KG OF ML CAPE. THINK THE PROBABILITY OF THESE CAPES
OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO THE RAINFALL...HOWEVER. BUT WILL NOT KNOW
THESE SORTS OF DETAILS UNTIL TRENDS EMERGE TOMORROW. RAIN COOLED
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH....AND INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK PROMISES A DRIER AND
MILDER PERIOD WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN ARRIVING MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT...AND THE BLEND OF
TODAYS RUNS SO FAR HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THAT TREND. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO THE SATURDAY MORNING PCPN OVER MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE THE DYNAMICS HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH INCLUDES A HEALTHY 850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE...RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET...PWATS NEAR 1.50 AHEAD OF A
RELATIVELY SLOW SAGGING FRONT. A FEW MODELS ALSO PROG A SURFACE
WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY SLOW THE FRONT BUT COULD ALSO FOCUS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STILL THE LIKELY RANGE OF A 1 TO 2 INCH AVERAGE
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY.  UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE THREAT OF
FROST RETURNS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPS MAY ALSO DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
OVER THE FAR NORTH.

AFTER A COOL START SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS TO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STEADIER SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER C/NC WI. THERE MAY
BE A LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH...BUT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE TSTMS...AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AGAIN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A NICE
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY...BETWEEN THE PCPN FROM THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ANTICIPATED 1-2 INCH RAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO LIKELY RUN OFF WILL MAINLY AFFECT CURRENT
MAIN STEM RIVERS...WHICH ARE RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL STAGE. LATEST
NCRFC FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS ONLY ONE LOCATION ON THE MENOMINEE
RIVER MAY RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING SO NO
PLANS ON A AREAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THIS LOCATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE RIVER DOES NOT
REACH FS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO EXCEED FS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY REISSUE THE
ESF DUE TO THE EXPECTED RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS AGAIN BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......TDH


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