Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 202053
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWED CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THEY SHOULD
DIE OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR THE UPPER
MICHIGAN BORDER.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED 850MB/925MB MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DEPARTING AS A MID LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
STATE AND A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS. THIS SUPPORTS END OF SNOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE COLD TONIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS AND NOT
MUCH WIND. WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER THAN HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ANOTHER COMPLEX SYSTEM EVOLVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW STRATUS DECK WILL
DEVELOP ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A PERIOD WHERE THE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM WILL BE
AT WORK LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ON THE RISE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. BLUSTERY
OR WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS DOOR COUNTY WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH.

ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES FROM THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION
SHOULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
SWITCH OVER TO DRIZZLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST BECOMES MORE
MUDDLED NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO A MIX OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS EXPECTED...MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK 850MB WARM
ADVECTION OR WEAK 700MB LIFT. CAN NOT DISCOUNT FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY WHERE AIR AND ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
32 DEGREES.

MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 SATURDAY NIGHT...NEEDED TO HAVE SOME
FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO ALL
RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WRAPS UP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
PUMPING WARM AIR ALOFT INTO WISCONSIN. STILL SOME ISSUES ON TIMING
OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION IF THERE WOULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE SAME IDEAL IN THE TIMING FOR NOW.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER MONDAY...BUT COLDEST AIR
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SNOW EVENT FOR THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING NORTHWEST VILAS
COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR AT MUCH OF
THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF VFR AND
MVFR CIGS...WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY 2500FT TO 3500FT THIS
AFTERNOON.

CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF WISCONSIN. SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IN RETURN FLOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG





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