Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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602
FXUS63 KMPX 011954
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
254 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Cloud and fog possibilities are the main short term concerns.

Moisture from the upper low has advected west along the
Minnesota/Iowa border this afternoon.  A dry wedge of air moved in
very early this morning...in he wake of the initial surge...and
helped keep the stratus and fog at bay over eastern central MN and
west central WI. This left very fine weather conditions across much
of the region for the afternoon. We now have some mid level moisture
to work west into the night...but appears to be dissipating some as
it works into the resident drier airmass. With the surface ridge in
place and winds expected to become light after the boundary layer
decouples this evening...and the generally clear sky...we expect
another good radiation fog night.  Expect fog/stratus to redevelop
over at least central MN overnight and depending on mid
clouds...into parts of west central WI.  This may work into south
central MN as well...if lower clouds clear into the evening.

After any morning fog burns off Sunday morning...we are expecting
another mostly sunny afternoon for most of the area. Temperatures
should warm through the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

The main weather-maker in the long term arrives when a cold front
passes through Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon. A north-south
orientated band of showers and storms are expected with this
front.

The upper ridge will be overhead Sunday night and with the
surface high over the Great Lakes, the flow will pick up out of
the southeast by Monday afternoon. A strengthening surface low
will move north across western SD during the day on Monday with
widespread rain across the western half of the Dakotas, MT and
WY. The cold front will march toward the SD/MN border by Tuesday
morning and the LLJ will advect moisture northward ahead of the
front. Light showers are possible across western MN during the
day on Tuesday, but there is better model consensus in convective
initiation along the cold front Tuesday night - with more
widespread convection farther north in MN where the
dynamics/upper jet is stronger. The earlier timing discrepancies
between GFS/ECMWF are less apparent today. The biggest model
difference in the long term are THU-FRI between the GFS and
ECMWF. The ECMWF hangs the front closer to the area and develops
a surface low along the boundary - giving the area widespread
rain Thursday night. The GFS is farther southeast with the
precip. Slightly above normal temperatures are likely before
the cold front arrives Wednesday, followed by cooler temps to
close out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Stratus and fog is lifting quickly now. We did see a near repeat
in coverage area of fog this morning and will continue previous
forecast trend of developing it once again late tonight. Best
threat area will be along the ridge axis...and most confident in
area north and west of the KMSP at the moment. There may be enough
cloud around to the far east to bar LIFR conditions at KEAU. We
will play a bit more conservative there. Any fog will burn off
again after 14z-15z. Will likely see some mid or high level
cloudsinto Sunday afternoon. winds remain e-se over the area...and
should remain less than 10kts...but a mix out gust to 17kts cant
be ruled out most areas early this afternoon. winds should become
lgt/vrbl under the ridge and eventually southeast into Sunday.

KMSP...Fog/stratus remained about 10sm to the west and north of
the airfield this morning and clouds from the eastern cutoff low
drifted east of the area the first half of night. Any mid clouds
held off to the far east. We remained mostly clear early this
morning...with just enough stratocu around to preclude the
stratus/fog from developing locally. We may not be as so lucky
into Sunday morning. Introduced at least a mention of some stratus
and light fog for now though kept it VFR. Should clear off again
into Sunday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Wind SE at 10G20 kts
Tue...Chc MVFR -TSRA late. Wind SE at 10-15G25 kts.
Wed...Chc MVFR -TSRA. Wind Wind S to SW 7-11 kts.


&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...CLF/DWE
AVIATION...DWE



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