Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 202314
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
614 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HEAVY RAINFALL AND HEAT ARE OF CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE MAIN CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE-
1/ TO SHIFT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT EAST TO INCLUDE THE TWIN
CITIES METRO AREA
2/ TO SHIFT THE EXPECTED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH AND WEST TO INCLUDE THE TWIN
CITIES METRO AREA /AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR/.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND SOAR TO OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL /2+
INCHES/ BY 06Z THURSDAY. WHILE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY COULD INITIALLY BE SLOWED DUE TO THE BLOCKING AFFECT OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EVENTUALLY THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL HELP PUSH THE CONVECTION EASTWARD TOWARD EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED. THOSE TOTALS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE DOUBLED IN A NARROW AXIS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WHERE CELLS TRAIN AND REGENERATE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS.

THE THURSDAY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE CHALLENGING ON MULTIPLE
LEVELS. WHAT WAS ONCE WAS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE MINNESOTA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IS NOW LOOKING LESS
OPTIMISTIC. THE 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
RE-DEVELOPMENT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR /INCLUDING
THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA/. HAVE INCLUDED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
THESE AREAS. IF THIS SCENARIO COMES TO FRUITION...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN MINNEAPOLIS WOULD LIKELY NOT REACH 90 DEGREES...AND
HEAT INDICES WOULD NOT TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S. THERE IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN HEAT INDICES FROM 95 TO 100 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE CLEARING IS MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...ALL
OF THIS HINGES ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES LIE ON THURSDAY AND HOW FAR
NORTH/EAST THE MID LEVEL CAP BUILDS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE/CLOUD TRENDS AND MAKE A GAME TIME DECISION ON WHETHER A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM AS MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWED
THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

CONDITIONAL THUNDER THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT/
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT MCS. WILL HAVE TO
HOLD ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THIS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
CWA. EXPECTING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORT WAVE TO PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER TO THE WEST. SEVERE
POTENTIAL EXISTS AS WELL...WITH HAIL...STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE...IF
THE ACTIVITY MATERIALIZES.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF THUNDER/HEAVY RAIN RETURNS MAINLY
LATER SATURDAY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER KANSAS/DAKOTAS
REGION INTO SUNDAY AND THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN MN. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...AND TAKES MOST OF THE ENERGY NORTHEAST AND IS
FASTER WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SLOWS TO
THE EAST AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LAGS A BIT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING TO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TRAIL BACK
INTO THE 70S IN THE WAKE OF MONDAYS COLD FRONT. THIS HAS BEEN
FORECAST BY SOME LONGER TERM ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE LAST
WEEK OR SO. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE A DRY PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN AVIATION PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING/ONSET OF TSRA/SHRA ACROSS WESTERN
MN DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY AFT
6-9Z AS A COMPLEX OF TSRA DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR/HOPWRF AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SCENARIOS OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT...WILL LEAN TOWARD VFR FOR ALL TAF
SITES IN MPX CWA THRU 6Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRWF WHICH WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 3-6Z. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH IFR
VSBYS...VLIFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL BE VERY SHORT...WITH 1-2SM IN
+TSRA/+SHRA MOSTLY IN A 15 TO 30 MIN TIME FRAME. MVFR/VFR
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE PREDOMINATE DURING MOST OF THE TIME. THIS
COULD CHG BASED ON COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR AND AMD IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...THE BULK
OF THE WORST CONDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6-15Z...ESPECIALLY FROM KRWF
TO SC/EC/SE MN. THE WORST CONDS IN WC WI WILL OCCUR AFT 12Z. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE E/ESE ARND 5-10 KTS TONIGHT...MORE SE/S
TOWARD MORNING...AND MORE SW/W THURSDAY AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THRU.

KMSP...

VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU 6Z WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. AFT 6Z
TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SW/SC MN SHOULD MOVE INTO
KMSP TERMINAL SITE WITH A PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH IFR
VSBYS. THERE WILL BE VERY SHORT PERIODS OF LIFR IN
+TSRA/+SHRA...BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST FOR MORE THAN 5-10 MINS. THE
BULK OF THE VSBY/CIGS WILL RANGE IN THE VFR/MVFR CATEGORY. CONDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFT 15-18Z...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
S/SW...THEN EVENTUALLY SW/W DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS NE AT 10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR WITH IFR/+TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10G15 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT





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