Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 260016
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
716 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

LITTLE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  COLD CORE UPPER LOW
GENERATING LARGE CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT.
BREEZY WEST WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.  SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT POSITIONED OVER IOWA IS
EXPECTED TO TO GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  READINGS
SHOULD DROP OFF INTO THE COOL UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S FOR LOWS AND
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO SOME MID 70S.  THIS COMBINED
WITH THE DRY DEWPOINTS IN PLACE SHOULD PROVIDE A NICE PREFALL
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO SHOW THE WHITES OF ITS EYES LOCALLY...BUT IT WILL STILL HAVE TO
BATTLE THE INFLUENCE OF THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
MN/WI AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO SOUTHERN MN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND MAINTAIN
20-30 PERCENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY
/MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR/. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE GREATLY WITH RESPECT TO
THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE 25.12Z GFS AND NAM
RAPIDLY EJECT THE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...WITH A SWATH OF 1-2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE 25.12Z ECMWF AND GEM
PROG THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE A BIT STRONGER...AND
THEREFORE DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT PRECIP
UNTIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARD A
CONSENSUS BLEND THAT IS WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THIS CONFINES THE HIGHEST POPS BETWEEN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR NEXT SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER WAVE LOOKS TO
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT...BUT HAVE INCLUDED 20-30
POPS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
SLIGHT MODERATION WILL OCCUR FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH READINGS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE BECOMING MORE
COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 716 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

STRONG UPPER LOW IN NWRN ONTARIO WITH LARGE AREA OF BKN-OVC CU
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK
UPLIFT IN CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP KAXN AND OTHER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MN WITH BKN SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE LOW WILL KEEP MOVING NE...WITH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
GRADUALLY ENDING SUCH THAT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT.
THE REST OF AREA WILL DEAL WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS MOVING NE OUT
OF NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SD THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER WILL MOVE OVER MN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO WESTERN WISC TOMORROW EVENING. LIGHT
NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH AROUND TUE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MN
BEFORE THE TAF PERIOD ENDS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD START STREAMING
INTO MN/WI TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME CU SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY
MORNING.

KMSP...VFR WITH SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD STAY WNW
TONIGHT AROUND 5-7 KTS DUE TO GRADIENT WITH INCOMING HIGH OVER
DAKOTAS. SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER KMSP TUE EVENING WHEN WINDS GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TDK





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