Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 281801
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
101 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
TIMING OF THIS LINE AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT...A SLOWER COMMUTE WILL
LIKELY BE HAD. DO EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LINE SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO MORE STABLE AIR HOWEVER...SO CONCERNS WILL DECREASE
THROUGHOUT MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE...THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING REDEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/ MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MORNING
CONVECTION...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE AWHILE TO SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROGGED H7 TEMPS OF +12 TO
+14C NOSING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN. DID RE-INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AT 21Z...BUT THAT COULD BE A BIT
PREMATURE. ONCE CELLS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR
PROVIDED BY ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE. LARGE
HAIL/WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...PRIMARILY
EAST OF AN ALEXANDRIA...TO WILLMAR...TO FAIRMONT LINE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP AND
EVENTUAL COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL PRIMARILY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY)

WED THRU FRI REMAIN DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE IN TERMS OF HUMIDITY
LEVELS AS TODAYS SYSTEM SCOURS OUT THE HUMID AIR MASS. DEW PTS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY WED. EVEN PAST FRIDAY...DEW
PTS DO NOT RISE BACK INTO THE 70S WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT
KEEPING MOST OF THE HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH/SW OF MPX CWA. TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST PAST
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHC OF ANY CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR SAT/SUN WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. BOTH THE
EC/GFS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A VERY ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. THIS SAME UPPER LOW IS THE REMNANTS OF TODAYS STRONG
SYSTEM THAT IS VERY ANOMALOUS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE TYPICAL FOR SEPT THEN MID
SUMMER. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAP MUCH COOLER AIR FROM
NORTHERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND...AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BULK
OF THE COOLEST AIR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
...BUT THIS AIR MASS IS COOL ENOUGH FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S BY
NEXT WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SHIFT
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE EAST...SO ONLY IMPACTED LOCATIONS
ARE NOW KRNH...AND KEAU. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL GUST NEAR 30KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN MN.

KMSP...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL BE
TO THE EAST OF KMSP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND W AT 15G20KT
FRI...VFR. WIND WNW AT 10G15KT
SAT...VFR. WIND W AT 10G15KT

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JRB


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