Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 152353

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
653 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.UPDATE...For 00z Aviation discussion below


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

A weak trough of low pressure is near the MN/ND border early this
afternoon. As this trough approaches there will be an increase in
mid level and high level cloudiness. Moisture and lift is limited
and confined to the northern areas. So those areas may see a brief
sprinkle. This weak wave will be out of MN by midnight and skies
will clear. Winds will stay in the 4-5 mph range overnight, just
enough to prevent widespread frost so will go with patchy frost.
After that it is mostly clear and dry with warmer temperatures to
start off the work week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Dry weather and above normal temperatures continue to be the theme
for the long term period, at least through Friday night. After
that, a chance of rain returns to the forecast next weekend.

The northern jet stream will be in southern Canada the next few
days. A very weak wave will swing by Monday night with no
noticeable effects other than a wind shift associated with the
Pacific front. The next wave on Wednesday will be stronger, and
there will be some mid and high level moisture with it. But the
main feature will once again only be a wind shift.

The main change takes place late in the week as a deep trough
drops down the west coast and then approaches the upper midwest.
The trough should move onshore Thursday night, with the downstream
ridge over our area. Friday should be our warmest day with the
upper ridge beginning to shift east of MN/WI, and southwest upper
flow beginning. This means quite the increase in moisture, and
precipitable water increases on the gfs to 1.4 inches by
Saturday. The best lift does not arrive until Saturday morning and
that is when rain is in the forecast. The western trough does
looks to be progressive, likely moving over the central states
Saturday night and Sunday, so temperatures Sunday should be
cooler. Until then, temperatures will be well above normal. The
main factor that would discourage extremely warm temps late this
week is that surface winds should mostly be out of the south
rather than the west or southwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

High confidence in VFR through the rest of the period. Mid and
high clouds will gradually exit to the east this evening, with
mostly clear skies after 06z through the rest of the period (with
the exception of FEW-SCT cirrus on Monday afternoon). West winds
back to the southwest by daybreak Monday, then become gusty (into
the upper teens, knots) at KAXN/KRWF/KSTC/KMKT during the

KMSP...No concerns.


Tue...VFR. Winds SW 5-7 kts.
Wed...VFR. Winds W 5-7 kts.
Thu...VFR. Winds S 5-7 kts.




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