000
FXUS63 KMPX 031753
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1153 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMED INTO WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT SHUTTING OFF THE PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...MADISON AND CANBY ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES DID DROP TO RECORD LEVELS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES WITH ST CLOUD TYING THEIR RECORD
LOW WHILE EAU CLAIRE HAS BROKEN THEIRS BY A WIDE MARGIN. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WERE ALONG HIGHWAY 8 IN WISCONSIN
WITH AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO.

THE ARCTIC HIGH IS OVERHEAD OF THE TWIN CITIES THIS MORNING WITH
BASICALLY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EVERYWHERE. WITH THIS IS MIND ALONG
WITH THE INCOMING CLOUDINESS...CANCELLED MUCH OF THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AS CRITERIA IS NOT BEING MET FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON WEST
AND SOUTH. A LITTLE WIND FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20 BELOW
TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE WAS ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING
THERE.

FOR THE DAY AHEAD...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT THE INCOMING SNOW EVENT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
PAINT A RATHER BROAD QPF PATTERN ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE CWA
WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST BULLISH. THE SPC WRF AND NMM WRF CONFINE
THE SNOW MORE TO CENTRAL MN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND THE TWIN CITIES DURING THE EVENING. THE
03Z SREF PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE EVEN FARTHER
NORTH...JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWA. THE 06Z
HOPWRF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SHOWING THE SNOW STAYING NORTH OF OUR CWA.
THE 06Z NAM SPLITS THE PRECIPITATION INTO TWO SEGMENTS...ONE TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING OVER THE TWIN CITIES
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. IN THE END...KEPT THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) WITH
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BETWEEN NOON AND MIDNIGHT.
SNOW AMOUNTS DWINDLE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH OF I-94.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT A LITTLE WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM
10-14 DEGREES...EXCEPT 15 TO 20 FOR THE CANBY/MADISON AREAS WHERE
VISIBLE IMAGERY ON SUNDAY INDICATED A LARGE MINIMUM IN SNOW COVER.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY CENTRAL MINNESOTA PROGGED A FEW DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. SO THE TWIN CITIES SUB ZERO TRACKER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE HALTED AT 50 DAYS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

THE MAIN THEME FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION...MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW STILL LOOK PROMISING ACROSS THE FA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER TEENS AS W/SW
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE USHER WARMER AIR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR...BUT DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 20S...SO JUST A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUESDAY. DECENT RETURN FLOW REALLY GETS GOING ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND EC BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THIS TIME.
THE EC SHOWS IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH
MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW THIS TREND...ITS
NOT QUITE AS WARM. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE APPROACHING
THE FREEZING MARK BY THIS TIME. UNFORTUNATELY FOR WARM
LOVERS...THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR SATURDAY STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK BOTH IN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC. A SURFACE HIGH
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND ITS
POSITION WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE LOW TEMPS SATURDAY
MORNING...WHICH COULD THREATEN THAT ZERO MARK ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT BLEND CARRIES MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. FORTUNATELY FOR WARM LOVERS HOWEVER...BOTH THE EC AND
THE GFS MOVE THAT COLD AIR MASS QUICKLY EAST...AND SHOW A NICE
WARM UP INTO MONDAY.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION...THE ZONAL FLOW STILL LOOKS TO BRING A
FEW RIPPLES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE EC/GEM/GFS
SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN. LEANED TOWARD THE EC FOR QPF AS THE GFS SEEMS A BIT
ROBUST GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING. THE NAM HAS A LOT OF ISSUES
HANDLING THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE AND IS LAGGING ABOUT 12 HOURS
BEHIND THE CONSENSUS...SO THE NAM HAS BEEN DISCARDED FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEXT DECENT WAVE COMES BY ON
THURSDAY...AND PREFERRED THE EC SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE AREA. THE EC REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT ON THE THERMAL RIDGE COMING NORTH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...SO IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH,

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

TWO BOUTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF AREA DURING
THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL SCRAPE THE NORTHERN PORTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE...AND IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED TO AFFECT MN SITES
ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 /KAXN AND KSTC/. A SECONDARY BAND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL MN THIS EVE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING
KMSP/KRNH/KEAU BETWEEN 03Z AND 11Z TUESDAY. CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO MVFR AREA-WIDE BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z...WITH
2-5SM VSBYS COMMON WHEN IT/S SNOWING. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO END BY 12Z...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS
TODAY DECREASE TO AOB 5 KTS AND BACK A BIT TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

KMSP...
EXPECT THE FIRST BAND OF SNOW TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF KMSP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE SECOND BAND /DEVELOPING TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST/ ARRIVING AROUND 03Z AND TAPERING BY 10Z. COULD SEE 2SM
VSBYS IN -SN BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...WITH AN OVC 1500FT DECK ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THEN AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE
AN OVC MVFR DECK IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
TUESDAY...CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE TO 1800 FT AROUND 19Z
TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE NIGHT...MVFR CIGS. WINDS ENE 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN. WINDS S 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN EARLY. WINDS N 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...LS