Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
000
FXUS63 KMPX 232048
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...ISOLATED THUNDER...AND WIND WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. FROM MORRIS TO FAIRMONT...WE
HAVE SEEN SUSTAINED WINDS 27-29KTS WITH GUSTS EASILY INTO THE MID
30S. WITH THE STORM STILL APPROACHING AND THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT
YET TO MOVE INTO SW MN...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL ITS EXPECTED EXPIRATION AT 7 PM. NEXT ISSUE IS THE RAIN
FCST...WITH AN INITIAL BAND MOVING THROUGH E CNTRL MN AS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN...AND MORE ON THE WAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP IN SW MN...AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTN AS IT SPREADS NE. THE MAIN SHOW WILL COMMENCE
OVERNIGHT AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S MN AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH HANGING BACK IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING IN S SD/E NEB/E KS CLOSE TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIFT INTO IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHERN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI AS
INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAIN COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
MAXIMIZED IN THAT AREA ALONG WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1" AS A CLOSED
H7 LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. OUR CURRENT FCST PAINTS GREATER THAN 1" OF
RAIN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING ON THU.
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE ANY TRAINING
CELLS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. RAIN WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. IN
TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS MEAGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THIS AFT...ESPECIALLY IN A CLEAR SLOT IN EASTERN SD...BUT AS THE
AFTN PROGRESSES...THE EXPECTED CONVECTION IN NEB/KS WILL "STEAL
OUR THUNDER" IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER THIS FAR
NORTH. ISOLATED T HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND
THE FIRST HALF OF THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH BEST LI/S
STAYING ABOVE ZERO WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT...
AND ALONG WITH A STEADY BREEZE...TEMPS FROM NOT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL DRIVE EAST OF THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING MUCH OF THE RAIN TO AN END. LINGERING SMALL POPS REMAIN
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. QUITE A RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MN RIVER VALLEY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 50S FORECAST RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL BE
THE LAST NEAR NORMAL DAY ON HIGHS AS TEMPERATURES DROP WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THIS IS DUE TO THE REX
BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER US DURING THE WEEKEND AND PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TREND TODAY ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IS
FOR THE UPPER LOW BEING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING EXIST TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE UPPER LOW. THIS SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW ALLOWS
SOME PRETTY CHILLY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE COMMON
WITH LOWS AROUND 30 TO THE MIDDLE 30S. ANYONE OR BUSINESSES SETTING
PLANTS OUT THIS WEEKEND AS WELL AS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NEED TO BE
COGNIZANT ON THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THE
END OF THE APRIL HERE IN THE TWIN CITIES IS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH
THE LOW NEAR 40. THIS COLD SCENARIO KEPT THE MENTION OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED WITH REGARDS TO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS/HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HRS. OUR FIRST BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AT THE NOON HOUR WITH A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK BACK TO THE
WEST. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS SW MN LATER
THIS AFTN WITH A HEAVIER, STEADIER RAIN MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. VFR CONDS THIS AFTN WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR IF NOT IFR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF
SITES AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND MOVES OVERHEAD.

KMSP...INITIAL BAND OF RAIN SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH THROUGH BY
22Z...WITH MORE STEADY RAIN RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED BY 09Z...NOT IMPROVING UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND 5-10 KT.
FRI-SAT...VFR. N WIND 5-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-054>056-064-
     065-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCA
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JCA






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.