Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 091449 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
949 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.UPDATE...

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK WAVE ROLLS THROUGH...BUT MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL SEEM
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK WAVE ROLLS THROUGH...BUT MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS OUT THERE RIGHT NOW
WILL TRANSITION TO ALL VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY...WITH THE H5 TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA...
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WISCONSIN AT MID-DAY TODAY.  THE BETTER
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND FORCING PROFILE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA.  BUT...WE HAVE MUCH LESS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. BUT...IT STILL JUSTIFIES AN ISOLD SHRA
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON.  SOME MORNING CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE...WHERE A WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT BROUGHT SOME COOL LAKE AIR INLAND RESULTING IN LOW
CLOUDS.  THIS SHOULD MIX OUT READILY AFTER SUNRISE WITH WINDS
TURNING BACK TO THE WEST.  SO...ON BALANCE...TODAY LOOKS LIKE A
PRETTY DECENT DAY OUT THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT. THE LACK OF WINDS COULD RESULT
IN SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT WE/LL WORRY ABOUT THAT LATER.  DEWPOINTS
COULD MIX OUT PRETTY EASY TODAY...HELPING TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ECMWF AND GFS
PAINT LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...BUT THE MOISTURE SEEMS QUITE
OVERDONE. DEWPOINTS FOR THOSE MODELS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF
LOWER 50S. THEREFORE...EXPECTING CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH NO SHOWERS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S NEAR THE LAKE WITH A LAKE BREEZE
AND IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND.

A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL APPROACH WI EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN CROSS WI LATER FRI MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD BE POINTING INTO NORTHEAST IOWA BY THIS TIME...THEN LEAN OVER
INTO WESTERN IL LATER FRIDAY...ALONG THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION NEVER GETS INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE BETTER LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...AND
THERE IS LITTLE HELP FROM THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS. MODELS ARE COMING
IN DRIER FOR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT KEPT THE LIKELY POPS FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL WI DURING THE DAY FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
POTENTIAL.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN WI.
THEREFORE...KEPT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ON
SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS DEBATE ON WHETHER A SHORTWAVE WILL BE
ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE RIGHT TIME TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. EITHER WAY...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE AN ALL DAY RAIN EVENT.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TOO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...UPPER 70S
NEAR THE LAKE.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SOMETIME MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN
THROUGH WI ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW SWINGING INTO
THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT. THEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO
SOUTHERN WI FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
DIURNAL CLOUDS EACH DAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS DUE TO THE COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW AVERAGE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

A WEAK FRONT MOVING DOWN THE LAKE SHORE...BRINGING COOL BUT LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS...WILL SPREAD AN AREA OF IFR CLOUDS FOR A TIME TO
KMKE/KENW AND POSSIBLY KUES THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AND WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING.  AFTER THESE LOW CLOUDS MOVE OUT...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LIGHT LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC



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