Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 280745
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
245 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence is medium.

A strong shortwave just north of Lake Superior will move east
northeast with Southern Wisconsin in the right entrance region of
the weakening upper jet as it moves off into southeast Canada.
Then a weak zonal flow extends across southern Wisconsin tonight.
Little in the way of any 700 mb upward motion until towards
sunrise in areas northwest of Madison.

700 mb west winds diminish this morning and remain light through
tonight as a weak 700/850 mb ridge builds back across southern
Wisconsin.  700 mb RH remains low but does increase a little north
areas late tonight.

Dense Fog should mix out by mid/late morning, which should give
mainly scattered cumulus, and a warm day. Light winds will become
easterly during the afternoon near Lake Michigan.

Forecast soundings show zero to 1 km CAPE increases to around 700
Joules/kg this afternoon, but has a cap around 850 mb, along with
dry air above the cap.  Therefore do not expect much potential for
showers.  limited moisture below the cap and this dries tonight.

As a result expect fog potential again tonight.

.MONDAY - Confidence...Medium
Surface high shifts a bit to the east into the eastern Lakes. 850
high proggd vcnty of se WI or ne IL. Light wind regime likely to
allow for some morning fog. 591DM broad mid level ridging is
expected. So will keep POPS quiet...in the single digits per MOS.
925 temps rise just a smidge into the lower 20s celsius with a
better hint of a return flow.

.TUESDAY - Confidence...Medium
Surface/850 boundary expected to focus a chance of shra/tsra. Mid
level flow becomes more cyclonic from the northwest though better
vorticity resides to the northeast and southwest of the CWA. So
expect low level convergence acting upon instability axis ahead of
the front to be the primary focus mechanism for convection. Main
cool push arrives Tuesday night as 925 winds turn northwest and
eventually northeast.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - Confidence...Medium
Shaping up to be a rather quiet with dominating surface high. Low
level thermal trough will be in place with 925 temps both Thursday
and Friday in the low to mid teens celsius. Surface high shifts east
on Saturday to allow for a return flow and a moderation in the 925
thermal pattern to the upper teens or lower 20s celsius.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Widespread IFR/LIFR in fog/stratus expected
early this morning. Vsbys will improve to VFR with morning mix-out
by mid/late morning. Winds will be light through the period with
low-level moisture bringing another good chance for fog by
midnight tonight into Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...Will see areas of fog as high low-level moisture moves
over the cooler waters of the lake trough early morning. Expect
light east winds by afternoon.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ046-047-
     051-052-056>060-062>069.

LM...None.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz
Monday THROUGH Saturday...Collar


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