Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 240203
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
903 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.UPDATE...

Isolated showers mainly along better push of northeast winds.
These will continue to diminish.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds/waves will approach Small Craft Advisory levels later
tonight and Monday, but right now it looks like conditions should
stay just below criteria, or only briefly meet them.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 626 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017)

UPDATE...

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Isolated showers lingering in the east into the evening. Dry
weather is then expected overnight and on Monday as high pressure
builds into the region.

Winds will continue to switch to the northeast across the area.

Might be some fog tonight in the west toward the high building in.
A drier airmass will slowly be working in overnight though, which
might limit develop.

Low clouds are expected to develop late tonight, especially east,
lingering into Monday morning. Should see VFR conditions return
north to south late morning into the afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 241 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Monday...Forecast confidence is high:

Storms in the south will wind down late this afternoon, with a few
showers possibly lingering in the east into the evening. Dry
weather is then expected overnight and on Monday as high pressure
builds into the region.

After a brief period of clearing, more clouds are expected to
move in from the north/northeast late evening into the night.
Limited any fog potential to the west where winds will be lighter
and clouds will move in later. Dewpoints will be slowly lowering
overnight, which could also limit fog development.

The clouds are expected to linger through Monday morning, winding
down by mid/late afternoon. The lack of sunshine along with
cooler temps aloft will result in below normal high temps in the
low to mid 70s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...Forecast confidence is high.

High pressure will be drifting off to the southeast, allowing
southerly winds to return. We will be dry with a decent amount of
sunshine during the day, but dew points will be on the increase
with warmer temps and moisture returning.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Forecast confidence high.

A cold front will drop very slowly south through the state later
Wednesday through Wednesday night. We may stay dry across the
south during the morning, with thunderstorm chances arriving in
the afternoon. The best chance for activity will be during the
evening. The moisture return ahead of the front is rapid with
precipitable water values reaching around 2 inches. Given that
and the slow movement of the front, rainfall rates and amounts
will likely be on the high side. Also, the storm prediction center
is highlighting the potential for severe thunderstorms as well.

Thursday...Forecast confidence is medium.

The bulk of the showers and storms will be south of Wisconsin by
sunrise, but we may see some lingering activity in the morning.
Dry by afternoon if things remain progressive.

Friday through Sunday...Forecast confidence is medium.

High pressure should build back in from the north, providing a
mostly dry stretch during this period with temperatures near
normal. Some guidance suggests another front approaching from the
north later on Sunday (next weekend), but that is a long way off.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Storms in the south will wind down late this afternoon, with a
few showers possibly lingering in the east into the evening. Dry
weather is then expected overnight and on Monday as high pressure
builds into the region.

Winds will continue to switch to the northeast this afternoon
near Lake Michigan as a lake breeze moves in.

Might be some fog tonight in the west toward the high building in.
A drier airmass will slowly be working in overnight though, which
might limit develop.

Low clouds are expected to develop tonight, lingering into Monday
morning. Should see VFR conditions return north to south late
morning into the afternoon.

MARINE...

Could see winds/waves approach Small Craft Advisory levels on
Monday, but right now it looks like conditions should stay just
below criteria.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Hentz
Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Monday Night through Sunday...Davis



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