Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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081
FXUS63 KMKX 272341 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
641 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Gusty northeast winds are expected into the middle evening hours
near Lake Michigan, with northeast winds persisting into Friday.
These winds will become gusty again by the late morning or around
midday, lingering into the afternoon. Inland areas will see
lighter northeast winds tonight into Friday.

Diurnal cumulus should dissipate by early evening in the western
portions of the area. Middle level clouds to the north may linger
tonight, with some uncertainty as to how far they may move into
the area. For now, kept mostly clear skies and may need to add
more clouds in later on. More diurnal cumulus clouds should
develop inland by Friday afternoon.

Wood

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 305 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017)

SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Friday - Confidence...High

Surface high pressure vicinity of ND/nrn MN will drift slowly to
near Lake Superior. A sustained dry and cooler northeast flow will
keep things quiet into Friday. Low level thermal trough sets up
across the area with 925 temps in the teens celsius. Some more cu
development is expected once again on Friday.

LONG TERM...
Friday Night through Tuesday - Confidence...Medium to High.

12z suite of model output continues to support a beautiful stretch
of weather for the region, and a welcome break from the
rainy/stormy period we have seen over the past several weeks. A
sprawling area of surface high pressure will dominate our weather
regime. Temperatures will be at/below average Saturday, slowly
moderating to slightly above average next week with comfortable
humidity levels.

Tuesday Night through Thursday - Confidence...Medium.
Still some question as to how long this period of dry weather will
persist. The GFS and GEM continue to suggest rain chances around
the Wednesday time frame (give or take), while the ECMWF is a day
or so later. Given the spread, confidence in the particulars for
this time frame is a bit lower. Typical summertime temperatures
will persist.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
VFR conditions expected this period as dry surface high builds
towards Lake Superior. A gusty northeast wind will prevail esp
closer to Lake Michigan. Quiet and dry regime lasts into Friday as
the influence of the high holds sway. Only some scattered VFR
diurnally cu is expected on Friday.

MARINE...
With high pressure setting up near Lake Superior a sustained
northeast flow will keep waves up into Friday. So going Small
Craft Advisory looks good.

BEACHES...
Gusty northeast winds and building waves are expected along the
beaches of Lake Michigan into Friday. This brings high swim risk
conditions during this time. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in
effect into Friday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for WIZ052-060-
     066-071-072.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Saturday for LMZ645-646.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT Friday night for LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

Update...Wood
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Friday Night through Thursday...Gagan



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