Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 222131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
331 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017


TONIGHT AND THURSDAY..Forecast Confidence...High

Approaching low pressure will move across southern Wisconsin this
evening into early tonight, dragging a cold front with it. Could see
a shower or two as this system moves through, but overall it looks
like it should remain dry. Partly cloudy skies will turn mostly
cloudy to overcast behind the front later tonight into Thursday
morning as a colder airmass moves in.

Latest models have slowed a bit with the progression of the stronger
low pressure system to approach on Thursday. Thus backed off pops
for the afternoon, with a chance of rain mainly in the west late in
the afternoon.

Breezy northeast winds off of Lake Michigan will combine with the
mostly cloudy conditions and colder temps aloft to result in a much
cooler day tomorrow. Though highs will still be well above normal
for late February, temperatures will run about 20-25 degrees cooler
than today.


Thursday night through Saturday...Forecast confidence medium.

Strong low pressure will likely track from KS to across se WI from
Thu night through Fri night though there is still some potential
for the low to track farther north and slower. The main surge of
lift and precipitation will be Thu night into Fri AM with fairly
strong 850-700 mb warm, moist advection and frontogenesis. 2 meter
temps on the models have come in colder however, raising the
probability for mixed precipitation and freezing rain in the
Madison area and northward, and also north of Milwaukee. If the
colder sfc temps continue in the models, then a Winter Wx Advisory
or Freezing Rain Advisory may be necessary for the affected areas
Thu night and Friday AM. The upper low will then bring a round of
light snow for late Friday night and Sat AM with minor snow accum.
Fairly windy conditions are expected ahead of the low for Thu
night and Fri AM with brisk nwly winds and cold advection for late
Fri night and Sat.

.LONG TERM...Sun-Wed...Forecast confidence medium.

A shortwave trough will be passing to the south for Sun and Sun
night with slight chances of rain or snow for srn WI. A more
organized low pressure area will then develop in the Great Plains
and move across the Great Lakes for Tue-Wed. More rain and snow is



A low pressure system and associated cold front will likely bring
some mid and high clouds this evening into tonight, with maybe a few
sprinkles. Low clouds are likely to move in behind the front late
tonight into Thursday morning, possibly then hanging around through
the day.

There will be a chance for showers tomorrow by late afternoon or
early evening, with widespread showers then expected in the evening
and overnight as a stronger low pressure system approaches. A little
thunder is possible Thursday night.



Strong low pressure will approach the area later Thursday into
Friday, moving through Friday evening and overnight. Northeast winds
ahead of the low and northwest winds behind the low will be gusty. A
Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed from late Thursday
afternoon into Saturday night. Winds could approach gale force for a
time Thursday night into Friday morning and again on Saturday.




Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday...Gehring is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.