Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 231613 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1113 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DRIVING THE SECOND AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THUS...THE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL HANG ON IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...AS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HRRR AND MOST OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THAT AREA.

WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS IN THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH POPS TRENDING LOWER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING BY EARLY TO
MID EVENING IN THE EAST. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AS WELL.

SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE
EASTERN SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR NOW
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY
EVENING...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

FOG WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ALTERNATE MINIMUMS MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE BUT WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION IN TAFS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

DIDN/T NEED TO CHANCE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH A
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL REFLECTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A BAND OF SLOW
MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH...LASTING ABOUT 4-6 HOURS.
LOOKS LIKE THINGS MAY HAVE SLOWED DOWN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN WEST OF MADISON AND THEN GRADUALLY LOWER
THEM AS THE SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM
WITH TIME SHOULD BRING MAINLY CHCY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP MAY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TONIGHT WITH SLOW
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOW A WEAKENING
VORTICITY AXIS MOVING THROUGH THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES LATER FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING LIGHT QPF.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HINTED AT SOME LIGHT QPF AS WELL
BUT VERY MINIMAL COVERAGE AND MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. THE NAM AND GFS
BUFKIT SHOWS MAINLY HIGH BASED AC WITH SOUNDINGS MOISTENING UP
CONSIDERABLY AOB 5K FEET FRIDAY NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY BUT NUDGE SILENT POPS UP JUST A SMIDGE.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TREKS
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE EASTERN LAKES WITH ANY INFLUENCE OF
THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WEAK SHOT OF
CAA WITH SURFACE/850 WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO WRN IA BY 00Z. 925 TEMPS DROP
FROM THE TEENS CELSIUS AT THE OUTSET BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SO STILL LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS RISE AS PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS TOWARDS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM WI
AND IL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW SLOW TO GET GOING WITH
WARMER 925 TEMPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS IA...SO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION NOT GREAT. MOST GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUPPORTING MID 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR HIGHS.

SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST. WITH CYCLOGENESIS GETTING UNDERWAY IN THE PLAINS...850
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TOWARDS SRN WI WITH DECENT 850 MOISTURE
PUSH. MINIMAL ELEVATED CAPE SHOWN IN THE SOUNDINGS....THOUGH WITH
DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION AND FORCING FROM LLJ WILL GO AHEAD AND
MENTION THUNDER.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF AND GFS BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
WITH A POTENTIAL LULL IN PRECIP AFTER INITIAL WAA EVENT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB DEEP INTO THE
60S...POTENTIALLY HIGHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH BOTH MODELS
SHOWING THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH WI. AT SOME POINT WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BOOST POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS SOME CONSENSUS STARTING TO
TAKE SHAPE.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS HAS A FAIRLY BENIGN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAD
DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND BROUGHT A SLUG OF
PRECIP IN HERE AS THE LOW TRACKED TO OUR SOUTHEAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS
COMPLETELY CONVERTED TO THE GFS IDEA OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH FRONTAL PRECIP SHIFTING WELL EAST AND NO SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT WHATSOEVER. IN FACT SUPERBLEND IS SHOWING POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD AND IF THIS CONSENSUS PERSISTS POPS MAY BE EVENTUALLY
REMOVED WITH SURFACE HIGH FROM BOTH 00Z RUNS TAKING HOLD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES TODAY. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS...REACHING KMSN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
UP AND WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT TREND...GIVEN
THE OVERNIGHT TIMING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS...IS RATHER LOW.

MARINE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND
LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR



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