Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 021921
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
221 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

KEPT A CHANCE FOR STORMS GOING THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH...JUST DEPENDS ON WHERE THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL
BE. RIGHT NOW...BULK OF MODELS ARE KEEPING A LOT OF THE CONVECTION
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME STORMS MOVING THROUGH
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CORFIDI VECTORS WILL
BECOME MORE OUT OF THE NORTH BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
HELP MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD. COULD BE SOME
GOOD DOWNPOURS IF STORMS DO GET DOWN HERE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THE 1.6 TO 1.8 RANGE AND FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTION.

ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD WIND DOWN BY THE EARLY/MID
MORNING HOURS. MODELS ARE THEN TRYING TO FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING SURFACE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE BETTER AFTERNOON HEATING SUGGESTS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS ALOFT TOMORROW WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER...WITH 925 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM 23C TO 26C. SOME ISSUES
WITH THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND CLOUDS FROM ANY AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT.
ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN ONSHORE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...KEEPING THOSE AREAS COOLER. WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA...AND THIS AREA ALSO HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE...SO KEPT WARMEST HIGH TEMPS THERE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS RATHER WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...THEN PUSHES SLOWLY WEST TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A SLOW INCREASE IN 700/850 MB TEMPERATURES OCCURS...MAINLY WEST
OF MADISON. 850 MB DEWPOINTS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 14 CELSIUS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH NEAR 70 FAHRENHEIT. ZERO TO 1 KM
MIXED LAYER CAPE IS AROUND 1500 TO 2500 JOULES/KG DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.50 INCHES.

FORCING IS WEAK BUT THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/LOW PUSHES INTO
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY MARGINAL
DAYTIME SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH IF THIS DID HAPPEN IT
WOULD BE ISOLATED. STORM RELATIVE WINDS ARE VERY WEAK. THEREFORE
ANY STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED.


.LONG TERM...

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS.

THIS WILL BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.


.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS NORTH OF MINNESOTA TUESDAY. THEN A
SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY...AND
APPROACHES WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE SHORTWAVE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH/WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL
SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME LOWER VSBYS WITH ANY
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

OFFSHORE WINDS SEEM TO BE KEEPING THE LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS AND RADAR FOR ANY SIGNS OF
INLAND PROPAGATION.

&&

.MARINE...

LATEST WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW IMPROVED VISIBILITIES
THROUGHOUT THE NEARSHORE WATERS. MIGHT SEE SOME FOG REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AS A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
OVER THE COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HENTZ



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