Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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871
FXUS63 KMKX 130930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SECTION WILL BE ADDED SHORTLY.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS RANGING FROM 2.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 5 INCHES FAR
SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LEADING
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE...BUT ENOUGH
OVERLAP BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH POPS. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL
KEEP THE SNOW GOING INTO THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A 20 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO FOR THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH IS A VERY DEEP
SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 600 MB. IF SOME OF THE BETTER LIFT ENDS UP IN THIS DEEP
DGZ...MAY END UP WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM MILWAUKEE NORTHWARD. SFC TO 850 MB MEAN
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME...WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE
OF 13-15C. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT TO
SYSTEM TOTALS...AS THE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS BORDERLINE AND FAIRLY
BRIEF.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS FOR TEMPS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT AN OVERALL CONSENSUS BLEND SUGGESTS NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...WHILE A STRONG LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY GETTING
EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY EVENING.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/ AND MARINE...THESE SECTIONS WILL BE ADDED
SHORTLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-
     051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV



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