Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 210848 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
348 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SECONDARY PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER CENTRAL MN WL TRACK
SOUTHEAST...CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH GTLAKES TODAY.

DESPITE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST...ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPECTED WEAKER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION SWINGING THROUGH TO GENERATE ISOLD TO SCT -
SHRA THIS MRNG. BEST CHANCE FOR
-SHRA IN THE KFLD/KSBM AREAS...SO BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.

DEFORMATION RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTN. SO...BY MID-LATE AFTN...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
CLEARING. STRATUS ASSOCD WITH DEFORMATION TO CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH
INTO SRN WI THIS MRNG.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO SETUP OVER WRN GTLAKES. HENCE...QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS.

HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT...AS SFC WINDS DECOUPLE
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...FOG SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY LIGHT DUE TO SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AT INVERSION
LEVEL...AND DRIER DEW POINTS SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...RESULTING IN
A BLEND OF FOG AND DEW. WL HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST MENTION...DUE TO
MILD NEAR SFC TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHWESTERN IOWA TO THE NORTHEASTERN USA. A RIDGE AT 500 MB
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA AS WELL. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DURING THIS TIME ARE QUITE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS STEADY
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA. LIGHT
WINDS AND STRONG INVERSION EACH NIGHT SHOULD BRING FOG TO THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND LOW LYING AREAS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA.

OTHERWISE...500 MB HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO OCCUR DURING THIS
PERIOD...A BEAUTIFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

PERIOD OF STRATUS WL AFFECT TAF SITES THIS MRNG...GRADUALLY LIFTING
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE THIS MRNG INTO THE
EARLY AFTN AS WELL. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN PATCHY MOSTLY LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING CDFNT WL RESULT IN
GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS MRNG. BACKDOOR CDFNT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF KSUE
EXTENDING EAST TO LOW PRESSURE OVER LWR MI WL SWEEP SWD ACROSS
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MRNG.

MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NNE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THIS MRNG...WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT.

CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA...WITH DELTA-T
AROUND 11C THIS MRNG...SO THREAT FOR WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY ALONG CDFNT
THIS MRNG REMAINS VERY LOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD



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