Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
782 FXUS63 KMKX 020855 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 355 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances increase today with a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms through early Friday morning. Isolated strong storms possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected. - Limited rain chances late Saturday into Saturday night, followed by additional precipitation chances for the early to middle portion of next workweek. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 355 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Today through Friday: Low pressure will lift from the Central Plains early this morning into central Wisconsin by mid-evening. Low precip chances (<40%) will continue through early morning, with higher chances (50-80%) mid morning into the afternoon as moisture and forcing increase ahead of the low. Expecting at least some elevated instability to sneak into southern Wisconsin by early this afternoon. Best chance to see some surface based instability will be late afternoon into early evening towards the WI/IL border, as the warm slowly pushes northward into the area. Overall, it does seem that there will be a few thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. While CAPE will be limited and lapse rates aren`t steep, shear looks fairly solid. So, still thinking there could be a couple stronger storms, with a severe storm not out of the question. Temperatures will struggle through at least early today with the clouds and onshore winds north of the warm front. Should see some milder temps nudge in from the south as the warm front begins to lift through the area later today. Overall, models have the warm front farther north into the forecast area by late afternoon compared to 24 hours ago. Showers should clear the east by around daybreak Friday, with clearing skies then west to east Friday morning. Looks like a nice day tomorrow, with plenty of sunshine, light winds, and highs around 70. Cooler temps are likely in the afternoon near the lake due to a lake breeze. DDV && LONG TERM... Issued 355 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 .Friday Night through Wednesday: Friday night will have quiet weather across southern Wisconsin. Mid-level shortwave trough then approaches forecast area on Saturday. It looks to move fairly quick, but timing should be favorable for another round of thunderstorms beginning Saturday afternoon, especially over southwest Wisconsin. It looks like there will be just enough of a period of heating, low level moisture return, and surface based potential energy for scattered or even a line of storms by late Saturday afternoon and early evening, eventually moving over Lake Michigan. Models indicating an approaching front, which should help surface moisture convergence. However, a few models are keeping the primary energy just south of the forecast area. Regardless, will watch timing of this potential event. Aforementioned cold front moves through southern Wisconsin by Saturday night with drier air behind this front. Therefore, high expectation for clearing and cool temperatures for Saturday night. Then, ridging aloft sets in for Sunday and Monday for dry conditions for parts of the great lakes and upper midwest. Both days will be warm with increase in surface wind on Monday. Next system then moves out of the Rockies Monday night into Tuesday. Still much uncertainty this far out, but southern Wisconsin could end up with pieces of energy rotating around this more broad trough, along with a surface boundary nearby on Tuesday. It could result in periods of showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday night. Low level moisture should result in more clouds and slightly cooler temperatures on Wednesday. KPL && .AVIATION... Issued 355 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Shower chances will gradually increase from west to east this morning into the afternoon, with showers likely persisting into tonight. A few thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon into early tonight. VFR ceilings this morning will eventually transition to lower clouds from Madison westward late morning into the afternoon, with lower clouds then moving across the area later evening into tonight as a trough swings through. East to southeast winds today will gradually veer to southerly this evening and the west to northwest by early Friday behind the trough. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 355 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Low pressure over the Central Plains early this morning will lift to central Wisconsin by mid evening, continuing northward tonight. Breezy winds will transition from easterly ahead of a warm front early today, to southerly behind the front this evening into early tonight, and then westerly by early Friday. Areas of fog will be possible tonight into early Friday as higher dewpoints advect through the area over the colder waters of Lake Michigan. Lighter winds are expected Friday under high pressure. Winds will then likely be 15 knots or less through the upcoming weekend, with high pressure in place much of the time. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee