Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 221558
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1058 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...CU FIELD ACRS NE WI ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND CHILLIEST TEMPS ALOFT. SOME CU HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN BUT VERY FAR AND FEW BETWEEN. APPEARS THE
SOUTH WILL BE FEW OR SCT AT MOST INTO THE AFTN HRS. NW WINDS STILL
GUSTY BUT EXPECT THESE WINDS TO EASE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES ACROSS ERN WI BY 12Z WED. PROXIMITY OF HIGH AND LINGERING
DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHRA CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACRS SC WI DURG THE AFTN AS LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH RENEWED WAA REGIME.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL REACH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER THE PLAINS.

MODERATE 700 MB DOWNWARD MOTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH DRY
MID AND LOW LEVELS. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE EXISTS AT THE TOP
OF AN INVERSION AROUND 6 THSD FT...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS
TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9.6 CELSIUS/KM BELOW THE INVERSION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING...BUT
BY THE TIME HEATING RESULTS IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE 850 MB
WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF 25 MPH GUSTS INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN.

LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A NW COMPONENT
THROUGH THE MORNING FOR TEMPS TO GET INTO THE LOW 50S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPS THEN FALLING NEAR THE LAKE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM LATER TONIGHT. DR5Y AIR WILL
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING STRONG 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE FIELDS SHIFTING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG
850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALSO OCCURS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE REGION. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT MOISTENS UP QUITE A
BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF MOVING INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...LIKELY TOO FAST GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS. CONTINUED
TO TREND UPWARDS WITH POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST...THEN HIGHER END POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN THURSDAY...PULLING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. AIR COLUMN REMAINS SATURATED...AS 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. CONTINUED
HIGH POPS FOR THURSDAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ELEVATED
CAPES OF ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT BEST THURSDAY...SO HAVE
CHANGED THUNDER WORDING TO CHANCE. SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION
GRADUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...SO CONTINUED TO BRING POPS DOWNWARD.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM
SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH ONSHORE WINDS
THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS SOMEWHAT COOLER. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF BRING A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LINGERING POPS. THEY THEN BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. THIS WILL BRING A COOL STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA...LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE.

THIS PERSISTENT COOL AND DRY FLOW SHOULD HELP BEAT BACK ANY
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS. USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
PERIOD FOR NOW...AND MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER POPS IN LATER FORECASTS
IF THE COOL AND DRY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN DURING THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY MID-MORNING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS...TURNING
NORTHEAST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID-AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM LATER TONIGHT. DR5Y AIR WILL PREVENT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL.

MARINE...

WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AT MANITOWOC AND 27 KNOTS AT SHEBOYGAN
SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON TRACK AS THE BRISK WINDS
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD



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