Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMKX 110827
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING A GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA HELPING GENERATE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO FAR NORTHERN IOWA. ACTIVITY
FURTHER TO THE WEST DRIVEN MAINLY BY 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE/WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRY TO SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT HRRR SHOWS IT HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING HERE WITH DRY
AIR IN LOW LEVELS.

MAY SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AS 700 MB MOISTURE INCREASES WITH WEAK ELEVATED CAPE.
KEPT EASTERN AREAS DRY. SHOULD SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY...WHICH
MAY HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST
UPPER 70S INLAND...WITH MID 70S TURNING COOLER NEAR THE LAKE WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE AND FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW ELEVATED CAPES INCREASING GRADUALLY...GETTING UP TO AROUND 700
J/KG IN THE FAR WEST. GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BRING IN MOISTURE AT THE 700 MB LEVEL. CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE FAR SOUTH AND FAR SOUTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH. 850 JET INCREASES TOWARDS SRN
WI DURG THE AFTN...ESP ON THE NAM. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING A MORE GLANCING SHOT OF THE JETLET WITH THE NAM SHOWING A
MORE DEVELOPED 850 LOW ACROSS NRN WI WITH THE JET AXIS ACROSS
SRN/CNTRL WI. WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF SRN WI PER THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE MORE FAVORABLE NORTHWARD TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT SHOWN BY THE
NAM COMES WITH IT THE HIGHER CWASP NUMBERS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW LESS IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS. EVEN IN THE LATTER SCENARIO
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FAVORABLE FACTORS IN PLACE FOR SOME DECENT
STORMS WITH 0-1KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS AND 0-6KM SHEAR
35-45 KTS. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE WITH TIME. WHILE
SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON STORM SEVERITY THE
CONSISTENT MESSAGE IS SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ON BOTH EXCEED 2 INCHES WITH A WEAKNESS IN CORFIDI
VECTORS LATER SAT AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS. SOME SVR POTENTIAL ON THE
TABLE PER SWODY1 ESP WITH NAM SOLUTION AND HIGHER CWASP BUT HEAVY
RAIN THREAT HAS SOME CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS TIME
WILL OPT TO LEAVE SVR OUT OF THE GRIDS BUT MENTION SLGT RISK SVR
AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST NW WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER 850
TEMPS. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A DRY SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS
HAS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY. UPPER FLOW IS
BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH ANY VORT...MAINLY THE SHEAR/ELONGATED
VARIETY...ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WILL KEEP CHCY POPS FOR NOW BASED ON
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MORE PRONOUNCED INTRUSION OF VORTICITY AS LARGE UPPER LOW DRIVES
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO WISCONSIN. EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHRA IN THIS REGIME. ALSO 850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO TAKE A TUMBLE TO
UNDER 10C.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER LOW SHIFTS A BIT EAST INTO
LOWER MI. FLOW ACROSS SRN WI STILL STRONGLY CYCLONIC SO WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF STILL SHOWING QPF IN THIS REGIME WILL KEEP SHRA POTENTIAL
IN THE FCST. A VERY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR JULY
STANDARDS. 925 TEMPS ONLY MODIFY TO 10-13C IN THE AFTN HRS...WHICH
TRANSLATES TO HIGHS FOR MOST NOT GETTING OUT OF THE MID 60S.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW STILL SHOWING A CYCLONIC CURVATURE THOUGH SURFACE HIGH
DRAWS CLOSER AND AIRMASS DRIES OUT. MAY NEED A SMALL CHANCE AS WE
GET CLOSER BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE DRY ALLBLEND AND COLLAB
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS GRIP WITH A DRY AND
WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. 925 TEMPS MODIFY A BIT DEEPER INTO
THE TEENS CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO MOST OF
TONIGHT. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD MADISON THIS MORNING...
BUT MAY SEE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THERE. NO MENTION
IN TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW AREAL COVERAGE. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AT TIMES AT MADISON TODAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AT
THE EASTERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE.

LEFT VICINITY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN TAFS FOR LATER
TONIGHT...AS MORE WARM AND MOIST AIR TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.
BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. MAY SEE LIGHT FOG
DEVELOP WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT ACROSS TAF SITES...AS
WINDS WEAKEN SOMEWHAT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.