Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 150837
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A STRONG...DIGGING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BARREL ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TODAY. IT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST WI AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE...STRONG 925-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI THIS
MORNING.

MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAK RETURNS AND
LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MORNING. SATURATION IN THE LOW
LEVELS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW OVERNIGHT...THUS NOT MUCH RAIN IS REACHING
THE GROUND. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WITH
THE FGEN. THE HRRR AND HI-RES WRF MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING...SO I FOLLOWED THAT GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR
TIMING. RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN MADISON AROUND 8 AM AND MILWAUKEE BY
10 AM.

GIVEN THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SHARP SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE...THE RAIN WILL SHUT OFF VERY QUICKLY FROM WEST
TO EAST ON MONDAY...ENDING WEST OF MADISON BY LATE MORNING...AND IN
THE MILWAUKEE AREA BY ABOUT MID AFTERNOON. RAPID CLEARING SHOULD
THEN FOLLOW.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SETTLE INTO THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
WI WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK COOLING AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND...WARMER NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WHICH SHOULD PERMIT FOG FORMATION IN FAVORABLE VALLY AREAS
DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS. APPROACHING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN WED NIGHT AND CREATE WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THAT MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW WITH LITTLE LIFT OR MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...THUS THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
A DEEPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRING
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF RAIN TO WISCONSIN
SATURDAY...WITH CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
A FAST MOVING AND POTENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL THAT WILL
LAST ABOUT 5-6 HOURS OVER SOUTHERN WI...THEN CLEAR OUT QUICKLY. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF THE RAIN
STARTING...THEN CLEAR OUT WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.

THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AT KMSN AROUND 12-13Z TODAY AND REACH
KMKE/KUES/KENW ABOUT 14-15Z. LOOK FOR IT TO END AT KMSN BY 19Z...
22Z AT KMKE/KUES/KENW. THE MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS WILL
OCCUR DURING THE CORE OF THE RAINFALL.

CLEAR SKIES...RECENT RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG INLAND LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SLB


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