Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 311508
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1008 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND TWEAKED TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ADDITIONAL STRATUS MOVING THROUGH SRN WI. BASED ON VSBL SAT LOOP
STRATUS ON THE MOVE WITH CLEAR BACK EDGE ACROSS SC WI BUT AREAL
COVERAGE DICTATES THIS WILL STILL PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS FOR
PORTIONS OF SRN WI.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED THOUGH MORE MVFR STRATUS
WORKING THROUGH SRN WI INTO AT LEAST ERLY AFTN. MID LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES WITH SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTING SE WITH TIME. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY TIGHTENS INTO TUE. HOWEVER STILL
EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG THOUGH EXPECT COVERAGE OF DENSE TO
BE LESS DUE TO MORE MIXING.

PC

&&

.MARINE...EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS PATTERN SUGGESTS
PERSISTENT FOG ISSUES AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LONGER IN
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. BUT FOR NOW JUST WENT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE MORE PERIODS OF DENSE FOG INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK AS PATTERN REMAINS OVERALL RATHER STAGNANT.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DEALING WITH AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN 1/2 MILE AND 5 MILES...WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG.  OF THE AIRPORT OBS REPORTING THE LOWEST
VSBYS...MOST ARE BOUNCING BETWEEN 1/4 MILE AND 1/2 MILE. A FEW
LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN STAYING AT 1/4 MILE BUT CALLS TO LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT INDICATE DENSE FOG NOT YET WIDESPREAD. WILL HANDLE WITH
SPS FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WITH WARMING SW FLOW DEVELOPING AS SURFACE
HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFT EAST. MODELS INDICATE A
COOL POCKET OF 850 MB TEMPS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 22C TO 24C 925 MB TEMPS DO NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. WILL TRIM BACK HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES DUE TO EARLY FOG AND STRATUS...AND SUN BEING FILTERED
THROUGH SMOKE ALOFT FROM WESTERN U.S. FIRES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG EXPECTED TO NIGHT BUT A LITTLE MORE GRADIENT
FLOW SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
WILL HOLD LOWS INT EH MID TO UPPER 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS OF RIDGE PLACEMENT AND
RESULTANT TEMPS ALOFT...BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY PERSISTENT
PATTERN. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING SHOWING SOME SPLOTCHY QPF...MAINLY
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE...BUT
HARDLY SEEING MORE THAN A WRINKLE IN THE FLOW. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
THERE...BUT THINK IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THIS
PERIOD.

THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONT...BRINGING IT
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. DO HAVE SOME POPS IN THERE SUNDAY PER THE
QUICKER GFS.

THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE WARMING TEMPS. THE CONSENSUS
BLEND OF MODELS DOES NOT SEEM WARM ENOUGH GIVEN MODEL TEMPS
ALOFT...SO BUMPED FORECAST TEMPS UP AGAIN. OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TUESDAY AND AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE OFF SHORE. LOOKS LIKE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
ONSHORE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK...SO WENT WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THAT PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...IFR FOG/STRATUS DECK WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER
SUNRISE AND SHOULD MIX UP/OUT TO VFR LEVELS BY 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS...WITH FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. MORE OF A GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP VSBYS AT
MVFR LEVELS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT IFR AT A FEW SPOTS IF LOCAL
DECOUPLING OF SURFACE WINDS OCCUR.

MARINE...ISSUED A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FOR
VSBYS BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1 MILE EXPECTED UNTIL MID-MORNING. AFTER
THAT DAYTIME MIXING AND MORE GRADIENT WIND THAN YESTERDAY SHOULD
IMPROVE VSBYS ABOVE 1 MILE BUT WITH THE COOL WATER UPWELLING WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW COULD STILL SEE PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT THE FOG TO THICKEN TONIGHT AND IT MAY BECOME DENSE
WITH BELOW 1 MILE VSBYS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV



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