Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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295
FXUS63 KMKX 271622 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1122 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...

MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA...AS BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOCUSED 850 MB TO 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND 500 MB DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION HELPING DRIVE
THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA WERE KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS DRY...AND WILL TRY TO BEAT BACK
THE ADVANCE OF THE RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WEAKENING AS IT TRIES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST. THIS IS
LIKELY A RESPONSE TO THAT DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW...SEEN ON AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTHEAST
THIS RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER. CLOUDS AND GUSTY EAST
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH FURTHER
THAN CURRENT VALUES. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST HIGHS WELL INLAND
DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ARE GOING TO BE TRICKY AS WELL. THE
500 MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THIS TIME. 12Z NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL SATURATION...WITH THE 06Z GFS
SHOWING MORE DRY AIR AFFECTING THESE LAYERS.

WILL SEE WHAT THE 12Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOW WITH MOISTURE
TRENDS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE HIGHER END POPS TONIGHT. DID ADJUST
POPS TO SCATTERED FOR THURSDAY...AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK.

WOOD

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

GUSTY EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE GUSTS AT MADISON FOR A TIME
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 30 TO
35 KNOT RANGE AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL AT ALL SITES
TONIGHT. NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
THIS TIME.

AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY AFFECT MADISON BY MIDDLE
TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS...AND IF THEY
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA.

THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
WILL MENTION AT LEAST VICINITY SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AT
TAF SITES...WITH SOME PREVAILING PERIODS.

CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR CATEGORY UNTIL AROUND 10Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY...FALLING BELOW 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL SOON AFTER
AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO 3 TO 5 MILES
IN THE SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WOOD

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT INTO MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO THURSDAY...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL REACH 4
TO 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

COLLAR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES
BY NOON ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND CONTINUES TONIGHT.

700 MB LAYERS START OUT DRY BUT SATURATE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TOWARD SHEBOYGAN BY EVENING.
THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DRY THIS MORNING WITH THE NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MOISTEN MAINLY TONIGHT.  THEREFORE EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
TO PUSH NORTHEAST RATHER SLOWLY.  GFS SOUNDINGS DO HAVE SOME
ELEVATED CAPE OF AROUND 100 JOULES/KG THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

THE PERSISTENT EAST FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER
COOL DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WILL SEE LIMITED
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN IL THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE LOW LEVELS SO LIGHT RAIN... DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
WITH A BRISK EAST WIND.

PRECIP WILL DRY UP THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETS UP IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY.

SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

ONE OF TWO THINGS WILL HAPPEN OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT LEE LOW WILL
EITHER SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES... OR THE LEE LOW
WILL FUJIWARA... OR WRAP BACK INTO... THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW. IF
THE FIRST SCENARIO PANS OUT LIKE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST...
SOUTHERN WI WOULD SEE RAIN ON SATURDAY. THE OTHER SCENARIO WAS
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS AND KEEPS SOUTHERN WI DRY SATURDAY AND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY... ANY PRECIP WILL BE FIGHTING DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF SHOW THE LEE LOW GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
NORTHEAST BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERN
WI DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND FROM THE LAKE...
DESPITE THE COOL NORTHEAST WINDS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A DRY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. THEN LOOK FOR MVFR CLOUDS/VSBYS WITH RAIN TO
MOVE BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR
SOUTH.

MARINE...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND INCREASING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL
THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WAVES OF 3 TO 5
FEET. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...AND MAY EXTEND
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD/COLLAR
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC



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