Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 131534
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1034 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Elevated fire weather conditions over central Wisconsin today.

-Well above average temperatures away from Lake Michigan today.

-Shower and thunderstorm potential increases tonight, continues
 Thursday. Marginally severe hail possible from the strongest
 storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1035 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Temperatures have risen quickly into the low to mid 50s this
morning as plenty of sunshine and minimal high clouds prevail
across the region. Easterly winds have developed, and are
expected to remain light through the day. Fire weather concerns
in central Wisconsin remain, with dewpoints in the 30s and RH
values falling into the 20 to 25 percent range this afternoon.
However, generally light winds are still expected. Northeasterly
flow near Lake Michigan should assist with lake breeze
development this afternoon, leading to a quick cool down in
southeastern Wisconsin. This lake breeze timing coincides with
the initial band of instability and weak 500 mb shortwave
pushing into far southern Wisconsin late this afternoon, which
may serve to enhance a few showers and produce a few isolated
thunderstorms into this evening. Otherwise, previous forecast
remains on track.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 306 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Today through Thursday Night:

Temperatures are rather variable early this morning, as skies
clear within a light wind regime. Another relatively pleasant
day is expected today, with temperatures inland from Lake
Michigan reaching the mid to upper 60s. Dewpoints will remain
in the 30s in many locations, producing RH values between 20 and
25 percent over central Wisconsin. Lighter winds will help with
fire weather concerns, however.

Locations closer to the lake will be influenced by increasing
easterly flow, especially this afternoon, as low pressure over
the Texas Panhandle lifts northeastward. Winds look to be light
enough early in the day to set up a lake breeze circulation,
which will then be enhanced by the increasing easterlies later
in the day. So, even for locations further inland, a quick late
afternoon cool down is likely as the lake breeze boundary
surges westward.

Precip chances will start to increase this afternoon and this
evening as well, as a baroclinic zone starts to sharpen to our
south. We should see a fairly significant expansion in
precipitation overnight, as a low level jet overruns the front.
The best thunder chances will be south of I-94/US 18,
coincident with steeper mid level lapse rates. A few elevated
hailers will be possible in this area late tonight and into
Thursday morning.

Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected on Thursday, with
thunder coverage again remaining highest south of I-94/US 18.
Couldn`t rule out a few marginally severe storms in our southern
one to two tiers of counties, especially during the afternoon
as the upper level wave approaches and mid level lapse rates
increase. The surface front will remain well to our south, so
any severe risk should be limited to hail.

Precipitation will end from west to east Thursday evening and
night, with a short period of wintry mix not entirely out of the
question across central Wisconsin.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 306 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Friday through Tuesday:

Friday will be dry and cooler, though temps will still be above
average in the upper 40s and low 50s. Southwest winds will start
to increase Friday night ahead of an approaching clipper, which
will drag a cold front across the area on Saturday. Very gusty
northwest winds, perhaps as high as 40 MPH, are expected for
Saturday behind the front.

Deep cyclonic flow will continue for Sunday, with a chance for
snow showers as another shortwave rotates through the area.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 30s, with continued brisk
northwest winds.

The cooler temperatures will continue into the early part of
next workweek. Extended guidance is currently favoring a fairly
active pattern for next week, with a couple of precip chances
and variable temperatures.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1035 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

VFR conditions throughout today, slowly lowering late this
evening into tonight as showers and a few thunderstorms develop
in far southern Wisconsin and spread northward overnight.
Reduced visibility within rainfall and IFR ceilings are
expected going into Thursday morning.

Easterly winds are expected throughout today across much of
southern Wisconsin, with northeasterly winds along Lake
Michigan. Winds shift to northeasterly and become gusty late
tonight into early Thursday morning.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 306 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Light and variable winds this morning will become easterly to
northeasterly and increase steadily late today and tonight, as
low pressure moves from the Texas Panhandle into northern
Missouri. Breezy north to northeast winds are then expected
Thursday night into Friday as the low passes by just to the
south of Lake Michigan. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed starting Thursday morning for increased winds and waves.
Dense fog will also be possible during this time, especially
over the southern third of the lake.

Another area of low pressure will then pass by just to the
north of Lake Michigan on Saturday, bringing a round of breezy
southwest winds ahead of the associated cold front, followed by
northwest winds behind the front. Gusts to 30 knots will be
possible. Additional Small Craft Advisories are likely.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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