Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 170925

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
325 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence is high.

An upper ridge will build across srn WI by late afternoon into the
early evening. A strong shortwave trough tracking east into the Lake
Superior region will shift the ridge east followed by zonal flow
late tonight. At the surface, a warm front will move nwd into srn WI
today followed by a cold front for early Sat AM. The challenge is
temperatures especially over ern WI due to the lake breeze. We
should see at least a 10 degree N-S temperature gradient from
central WI to the WI and IL border. Also, 40s for highs at the Lake
MI shoreline but 50s inland.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is high.

A shortwave trough will steadily lose amplitude while progressing
across the upper Great Lakes/southern Ontario on Saturday. The upper
wave will escort a surface low tracking through southern Canada,
with an associated weak cold front swinging through our area
Saturday morning. No precipitation will occur with the frontal
passage. Northwest flow and some weak cold advection could keep
afternoon highs a few degrees cooler than on Friday, but still
expect readings well above normal, with record highs potentially
within reach for some locations.

Mid-level heights will rise behind the departing wave on Sunday.
This will support weak surface ridging over the area, as Rockies
lee cyclogeneis commences to our west ahead of a high amplitude
trough. Southeasterly flow will develop during the afternoon and
persist into the evening as a warm front associated with the
surface low lifts northeast through southern Wisconsin. Mid to
high level clouds should increase through the day in association
with the warm front. High temperatures will be on the order of 20
degrees above seasonal averages, with readings in most locations
well into the 50s to perhaps 60s. The exception will be in the
Lakeshore communities, where onshore flow will keep readings a bit

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

An upper trough will progress from the Great Plains into the western
Great Lakes. An elongated surface low attendant to the upper wave
will lift northeast from the western Dakotas into southern MB/SK.
The associated cold front will cross southern Wisconsin Monday night
into Tuesday morning, with a brief increase in deep layer moisture.
The best chance for rain will be with the frontal passage, however
upper support will be pulling away during this time. Rainfall
amounts should average 0.10 to 0.3 inches. Surface high pressure
will build into the upper Midwest following this system. Very mild
temperatures will continue as mild Pacific air is advected into the
area via quasi-zonal flow.


.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR conditions today and tonight. A wswly
low level jet of 45-50 kts may create LLWS for tonight.


.MARINE...Sely winds today veering sw then west throughout
tonight. Wly winds to continue on Sat. The winds and waves will
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.



Record highs for Milwaukee and Madison are as follows...

LOCATION        FRI/17TH    SAT/18TH    SUN/19TH    MON/20TH
Milwaukee       55 (1981)   57 (1933)   59 (1981)   60 (1930)
Madison         61 (1981)   57 (1981)   60 (1981)   57 (1930)

The average highs during this period are 33 (17th-18th) and 34 (19th-
20th) at Milwaukee, and 32 (17th-19th) and 33 (20th) at Madison.




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