Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 300820
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE BULK OF TODAY SHOULD BE RATHER PLEASANT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES
OFF TO THE EAST. LATER THIS AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE 50S.

LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WITH THAT SHORT WAVE IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO ROUGHLY MILWAUKEE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WITH A RATHER TIGHT AND FAIRLY DEEP FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY EVENING.  THE ONLY PROBLEM IS MOISTURE AS THE COLUMN
IS PRETTY DRY BELOW ABOUT 6-7KFT. THERE IS MUCH BETTER SATURATION UP
TOWARD SHEBOYGAN...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER POPS
THERE...TAPERING OFF TO NO POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST FORECAST
AREA. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOOK
FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH. TEMPS WILL STAY WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP THIS ALL RAIN.

TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WINDS WILL SHIFT NNE TUESDAY MORNING AND EAST TUE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST WI DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. OTHERWISE...
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORE. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING... WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE SURFACE TROUGH
PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
HOW EARLY/FAST IT BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH. PREFER THE SLOWER
CONSENSUS FOR POPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE WED NIGHT
AND EARLY THU MORNING.

MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK... ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE THU NIGHT... SO ADDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN WI ON FRIDAY AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
40S AND LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THEIR UPPER LEVEL AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE PATTERNS. THE GFS BRINGS
WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN WI WHICH PUSHES THE 850MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE INTO NORTHERN WI SO THAT SOUTHERN WI REMAINS DRY ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE ECWMF KEEPS THE COOLER AIR OVER ALL OF WI WHICH
ALLOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO US ON
SATURDAY. KEPT SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST.

THE ECMWF BRINGS THE WARMER AIR BACK INTO WI SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH
MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THAT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN AS WE APPROACH 12Z TUE. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
WILL START THE TAF CYCLE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A FAST DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THAT LOW WILL TRACK ROUGHLY FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN TO NEAR MILWAUKEE THIS EVENING...AND DEEPEN. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN UP AROUND 5-6KFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...BEGINNING AROUND MID
EVENING...OR 03Z TUE.  AS THE LOW PASSES BY AFTER 06Z...A DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST WIND COULD BRING DOWN A LOWER CLOUD DECK OF
MVFR CIGS...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAFS BY 10-12Z TUE AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUE MORNING. BUT...CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH WITH
THAT SCENARIO YET.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT FROM ABOUT PORT
WASHINGTON SOUTH TO WINTHROP HARBOR AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE
MARGINAL WINDS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC



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