Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 032109
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
309 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRIER AIR WORKED ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DIMINISHED. THUS...
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY. INCREASING
WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SKY COVER IS THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF
DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI
OVERNIGHT... BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH AROUND 8 AM AND THEN ONLY
RISE INTO THE MID TEENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGE AXIS IS STILL UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE QUITE COLD...IT WILL BE COLDER TO THE WEST...UNDER THE RIDGE.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 15 TO 20 BELOW...PROBABLY NOT LOW ENOUGH
FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST WHILE A TROF APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE TROF WILL BE DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE EVENING
AS AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE EXITING
RIDGE WILL BRING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH RIDING LIKELY
DOMINATING. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
IT/S A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW. SO SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ON
SUNDAY.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS MILD AND ON THE QUIET
SIDE. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INCLUDES HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOME OF
OUR LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS QUITE A RANGE. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME HIGHS LATER NEXT WEEK HITTING THE 50S...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
MORE RESERVED...STICKING WITH 30S AND 4OS. WILL TAKE THE
COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR NOW. IT/S A LONG WAY OFF. BUT...ITS THE
TIME OF YEAR FOR BIG TEMP SWINGS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH LATE EVENING UNTIL
THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVES. LOOK FOR GUSTY WNW WINDS AND SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MVFR CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

LOOK FOR INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS



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