Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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186
FXUS63 KMKX 171524
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1024 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marine dense fog may linger through tonight.

- Warmer and more humid today through Sunday.

- Wet and a chance of thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1016 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Light winds and scattered clouds today as high pressure moves
across Lake Michigan. Highs will be around 75 to 80 inland of
Lake Michigan.


Marquardt

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 413 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Today through Saturday:

High pressure settled in overnight. Southwest winds descending
toward the lakeshore in far southeast WI helped temps remain
elevated overnight when compared to other areas of south central
and southeast WI. With dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s and
temps dropping to those values, along with clear skies and calm
winds, patchy fog is developing. Most susceptible areas for
dense fog are river valleys, marshy areas, and east central WI.
The Fox River Valley is fogged in and the fog is expanding
southward into Sheboygan and Fond du Lac Counties between I-45
and I-43. We will continue to monitor satellite and obs trends
and issue a Dense Fog Advisory for additional counties as
necessary. With an early sunrise, the dense fog threat would
only last until around 8 AM.

High pressure, plenty of sunshine, and light winds will allow
for a lake breeze to develop early today, but the light flow
should prevent it from making it too far inland until dusk. The
dry air in place should also allow for dewpoints to drop toward
the lower end of guidance, in the upper 40s for inland areas.
This, and also subtle warm air advection tonight, will make it
difficult for fog development tonight. Lakeshore areas would
still be a little susceptible.

Saturday will be our warmest day of the weekend with highs in
the lower-mid 80s inland. A modest southerly breeze for inland
areas will still allow that lake breeze to develop, but will not
allow for progress inland. Lakeshore highs will be in the 70s.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 413 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Saturday night through Thursday:

A weak trough will cross southern WI Saturday night. Showers and
a few rumbles of thunder are possible along that trough in
western WI Sat afternoon, but precip chances should dwindle with
loss of daytime heating. In addition, the main source of the
forcing is from a closed upper low over Manitoba. Sunday looks
dry and warm, but not quite as warm as Saturday.

The upper level pattern will transition into a western trough-
eastern ridge early next week, and then become more zonal as the
week goes on. This puts southern WI in the unsettled, active
weather zone. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday
morning as one shortwave moves through, and timing/daytime
heating will drive how widespread those storms become. The next
shortwave will arrive Tuesday and the associated surface low is
expected to be stronger, crossing WI Tuesday afternoon/evening.
There would be a greater potential for stronger storms with this
Tuesday system.

The wave train should continue through the latter half of the
week and bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances to
southern WI. Temps for much of the week should be in the lower
70s inland and mid/upper 60s lake counties.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1016 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the evening. Expect
scattered clouds around 3000 ft. There is a chance for some fog
tonight, but confidence is low. South winds tonight around 5
knots may limit fog development.

Marquardt

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1016 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect. Satellite imagery
shows the fog mainly in the far northern and southern half of
the lake. It may redevelop or expand across the remainder of the
lake. The conditions will remain favorable through tonight due
to high pressure and warmer air flowing over the cooler lake
water, but there is uncertainty in the timing/area of how long
the dense fog will stick around.

No wind/gale concerns through Monday.

Marquardt

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
     LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 4 AM
     Saturday.

     Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM Friday.

&&

$$

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