Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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262
FXUS63 KMKX 220945
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
345 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Today and tonight...Forecast confidence is high.

Clouds and fog will once again be the main forecast challenge.
Foggy conditions will gradually improve this morning and will
maintain the current noon expiration of the dense fog advisory.
Northwest (cyclonic) flow will develop across the region today and
with low level moisture remaining high, expect stratus to
persist. Fog is once again a possibility tonight, but the current
indications are that it would be more of the patchy variety
compared to what we have observed the past several days.

Temperatures today and tonight will remain well above average.
Unfortunately, not much in the way of sunshine is expected.


Monday...Forecast confidence is medium.

We will continue in this cloudy and active weather pattern until
further notice. Low pressure will track just south of the Ohio
River Valley. This is farther south than previous forecasts and it
looks like the majority of rain will miss southern WI. Temps will
continue to be mild with highs around 40.

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium.

The next system to watch is expected to arrive Tue afternoon as
low pressure tracks across IA and nrn IL. The GFS and NAM have
been wavering north and south with their track and are a little
inconsistent with the location of the heaviest axis of precip. The
ECMWF has been very consistent with track and precip amounts, so
leaned forecast in that direction, similar to what WPC has in
their qpf.

Precip will begin as rain, but change over to snow later Tue night,
then a mix of rain and snow on Wed with temperatures right around
the freezing mark. Surface temperatures will dictate the precip
type, as there is no warm layer aloft and there should be a deep
enough cloud layer to allow for snow growth.

Models are showing a decent amount of qpf, between 0.25 and 0.50
inch. Because of the mild temperatures, not all the snow that falls
will stick to pavement, but snowfall totals could be in the 2 to 4
inch range over a 24-hour period. Tue night after midnight is the
time when highest snowfall rates are expected.

Thursday through Sunday...Forecast confidence is medium.

Cooler cyclonic flow will continue overhead through the weekend.
This will keep clouds in place and the chance for light snow
showers across southern WI. Another low is expected to drop down
from south central Canada early next week and bring a chance for
snow to WI.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
Status/fog are the main forecast concerns.

&&

.MARINE...
Areas of fog will continue through this morning. Conditions should
improve this afternoon as west winds spread over the region. If
timing of the west winds ends up a bit slower, the current dense
fog advisory may need to be extended past noon. Otherwise, off
shore winds will continue into Tuesday with no impacts expected at
this time.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until noon CST today for WIZ046-047-051-052-
     056>060-062>072.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until noon CST today for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gagan
Monday THROUGH Saturday...MRC



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