Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 152340
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.AVIATION...
Trends in ongoing TAFs look pretty good. No significant changes
were made in the 00Z package. VFR conditions will prevail this
evening. With light winds, mclr skies and lingering moisture on
the ground - would look for some fog/cig development (possibly
IFR/LIFR) in some of the outlying non-metro locations late tonight
and Sat morning. Expect these to gradually lift toward mid
morning with daytime heating...and transitioning to VFR
conditions areawide before lunch. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017/
A bit more CU across SE TX this afternoon, but radar has stayed
quiet. With mostly clear skies and light winds, we should see a
return of patchy fog overnight through early Sat morning. Isol-
ated showers over the coastal waters overnight could make it on
shore through sunrise as WAA persists and the airmass continues to
moisten up.

Models are keeping an unsettled weather pattern over SE TX this
weekend into next week as a weak/flat ridge aloft helps to draw
disturbances in from the W/SW. At the lower levels, much deeper
moisture from the Gulf will continue to work its way across the
CWA. Daytime heating/seabreeze look to be the main factors with
POPS over the weekend...with the occasional shortwave aiding in
storm development. However models are still indicating that the
best rain chances will be when the remnants of a Pacific tropi-
cal storm (Max?) gets caught up in the westerly upper flow, and
is then drawn across into the state. This along with progged PW
values from 2.1-2.4 inches does seem to support the development
of scattered storms from early/middle next week. Confidence not
too high with this scenario at this time, as models have been a
bit shaky with timing (when compared to previous runs). As such
have gone with just general 30% daytime POPS for next week. 41

MARINE...
Moderate southeast winds should continue into the weekend with
generally low seas. These conditions are expected to continue
through the early part of next week. Tuesday into Wednesday next
week the pressure gradient increases due to an area of low pressure
in the Plains. Winds may increase to around 15 knots during this
time with building seas.

Southeast winds have increased tide levels to about a half foot to 1
foot above normal tides. These slightly above normal tides should
continue into next week.  Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      72  92  71  93  74 /  10  10  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              71  92  72  91  73 /  10  20  10  30  20
Galveston (GLS)            78  88  79  89  78 /  10  20  20  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



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