Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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033
FXUS64 KHGX 171815
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1215 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR. SKC through a the first 2/3rds of the TAF period with an
approaching western mid-level cloud deck by sunrise Thursday.
Late period lowering VFR scattered to broken decks tomorrow
morning. A slowly veering northeast breeze to east by early
tomorrow afternoon. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

UPDATE...
Skies still clear across nearly the entire region but 8000-9000ft
deck starting to expand into the Matagorda Bay area and this flow
should continue today so some northeastward expansion of mid level
clouds should be expected. Temperatures this morning broke
records at HOU see the RER. Temperatures should continue to warm
steadily and most areas should reach 32 between noon and 1 pm.
Many roads have dried out overnight though still some patchy
bridge issues. Will let the Winter Weather Advisory/Wind
chill/Hard freeze expire at 10 am. Hard freeze will likely be
reissued for tonight in the northeast counties where the cloud
cover doesn`t reach and very optimal radiational cooling should
occur with temperatures in the 11-16 range. Southwest areas will
likely have the benefit of cloud cover so closer to 25 degrees.
45

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Skies have cleared out across almost all of Southeast Texas overnight
as drier air and strong surface high pressure builds in from the north.
It is very cold out there with 3 AM temperatures ranging from the mid
to upper teens well inland to the mid to upper 20s near the coast which
are some 15 to 20 degrees below normal. North winds that are light well
inland but still up to around 15 mph and gusty closer to the coast are
helping to produce wind chills mostly in the teens. The area`s Hard
Freeze Warning and Wind Chill Advisory will remain in effect until
10 AM, and will extend the Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM due
to the numerous reports of ice still on lots of area roadways (mainly
bridges/overpasses) and associated road closures. Winds will weaken
as the day progresses today, and temperatures can be expected to warm
into the mid to upper 30s (close to 25 to 30 degrees below normal).
Another Hard Freeze Warning might be needed again for tonight through
tomorrow morning probably for all but the coastal counties (based on
the current low temperature forecast of below 25 degrees for two hours
or more). Thursday looks to remain on the cold side (highs mainly in
the low to mid 40s with increasing cloud cover) as the strong surface
high ridges into the area from the east. Our last night of possible
subfreezing temperatures this week comes on Friday morning mainly across
the northern half of our area. Warming temperatures and a return of
rain chances comes back at the end of the week (mid/upper level low,
coastal trof, warm front) and over the weekend (increasing moisture
levels and our next cold front). High temperatures over the weekend
are expected to warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The first half
of next week looks dry with near normal temperatures.  42

MARINE...
Winds/seas remain elevated offshore so will maintain small craft
advisories in the Gulf until noon then reevaluate. Speeds have
diminished into caution territory for most of the bays w/ the
exception of far south. Water levels in the northern parts of the
bays remain low...~1.7 feet below normal at Morgans Point, so will
also keep the low water advisory going today. We should see some
recovery tonight and Thursday as speeds weaken and directions veer
to the ne and e.

Coastal trof develops as high pressure moves off to the east. Chances
of rain increase Friday as a warm front approaches the coast. Water
temps have fallen into the lower 50s at buoy 42035 and mid 40s in
the bay with the recent cold weather. Potential for sea fog increases
dramatically by Friday night as the warmer airmass moves over this
cold water. Fog threat will persist thru the weekend until the next
front (and associated precip) moves off the coast late Sunday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      21  42  32  55  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
Houston (IAH)              23  42  36  57  52 /   0   0  10  30  30
Galveston (GLS)            31  44  43  58  56 /   0   0  10  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...31



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