Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

780
FXUS64 KHGX 170551
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1151 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.AVIATION...
While areawide obs show VFR ceilings...still hanging onto the
forecast of developing MVFR decks over the next few hours. As
winds decouple and temperatures near dew point temperatures...
areas of fog may also develop with varying cats from MVFR to under
one mile LIFR visbies by just before or during sunrise. Lingering
southerlies and an early stratus deck may thwart more areawide
dense fog...but probs are moderately high for a few hours of dense
fog over more rural hubs through 14Z. A slower break out to VFR
tomorrow...most likely areawide VFR by 17Z. The tightening of the
onshore pressure gradient ahead of the southeastward-advancing lee
low/Southern Plains cold front will pick up gusty south winds
through the afternoon into early evening hours. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Latest surface observations show temperatures in the low 70s and
dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. GOES 16 imagery showing some cloud
cover over the area with obs showing ceilings around
5000-10000ft. Overall there should not be much more cooling
tonight. Where winds can become calm with clear skies, fog will
likely develop since there is not much of a temp/dewpoint spread.
The main changes to the forecast were to add mention of patchy fog
for tonight and update temp/dewpoint trends in the grids.

The rest of the forecast looks on track with a cold front expected
Saturday afternoon still. Little if any rainfall is expected with
the front but temperatures near or slightly below normal will be a
good change going into the holiday week. 39

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/

AVIATION...
Ample low level moisture will a near calm wind field not providing
any mixing should allow MVFR decks to fill in over the next few
hours. MVFR ceilings with areawide fog...possibly locally dense
around sunrise...during the overnight early Friday morning hours.
Strengthened onshore winds tomorrow with a slow morning break out
from OVC-BKN to afternoon VFR SCT-BKN decks. Possible passing
shower or two developing under the mid-level warm nose. Any Friday
precipitation should be just be just brief rain episodes and not
operationally impactful. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      68  83  65  78  44 /  10  10  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              68  82  69  81  48 /  10  10  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)            71  78  71  79  56 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...39
Aviation/Marine...31



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.