Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 280926

326 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2015

Rain has diminished early this morning, but will see it increase in
coverage once again, mainly for areas along and south of a
Steelville MO to Salem IL line as next upper level shortwave slides
east northeast along frontal boundary that is stalled just south of
forecast area. With the heaviest rainfall amounts over our far
southern 3 counties will trim back the flood watch to only Reynolds,
Iron and Madison in MO that will remain in effect until 18z today.
This area could see up to an additional inch of rainfall today. Will
see lesser amounts the further north you go. Temperatures early this
morning will flirt with the freezing mark in northeast Missouri, but
expect dry conditions. As for high temperatures, with cloudy
conditions and north winds, highs will only be in the upper 30s to
mid 40s today.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2015

Rain chances will lessen once again tonight through Sunday before
upper level low and shortwave lifts northeastward towards forecast
area Sunday night. With lows tonight and Sunday night near
freezing in the north, could briefly see some light freezing rain
in the far north during the hours right around sunrise, but do not
expect any ice accumulation. Upper level system will help to
develop surface low over west central Missouri on Monday,
strengthening and lifting northeast into Iowa by Monday night, so
will see another round of rain, with best chances along and north
of I70. The QPF expected with this round will be around a quarter
of an inch or less. Rain to taper off by Tuesday.

Currently extended models are indicating a dry period from Tuesday
through next Friday as upper level ridging builds in. Near normal
temperatures expected through midweek, before warming up a bit above
normal for the last half of the work week.


.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2015

IFR flight conditions will continue to prevail across the area
into Saturday morning. Latest guidance is more pessimistic about
the ceilings rising on Saturday, and it may take until late
morning across northeast MO and west central IL to go MVFR. IFR
may stick around for most of the day further south, with little
chance for improving to MVFR in southeast MO and southern IL.
Lingering light rain and drizzle will continue to keep lowered
visibility across much of the area along and south of the I-70
corridor through at least mid morning...longer further south.
Ceilings will likely improve later in the afternoon and into the
evening, but the improvement may be short lived as stratus tends
to lower during the nighttime hours.

Specifics for KSTL:

IFR ceilings will continue to prevail at Lambert at least through
Saturday morning. Lingering light rain/drizzle will also continue
to lower the visibility to 3-5SM...probably at least until 12-15Z.
Latest guidance is more pessimistic about the ceilings rising on
Saturday...and there looks to be little if any probability that
ceilings will rise above 1000 FT before 20Z, and ceilings
probably won`t rise above 2000 FT through the night into Sunday
morning. In fact, clouds may drop back below 1000 FT overnight
Saturday night as stratus tends to lower during the nighttime


Saint Louis     43  37  47  38 /  50  40  30  40
Quincy          39  32  43  33 /  20  20  20  30
Columbia        39  34  43  35 /  40  40  40  60
Jefferson City  41  35  45  36 /  50  40  40  60
Salem           45  39  47  39 /  50  40  20  30
Farmington      43  37  45  38 /  90  50  50  50


MO...Flood Watch until noon CST today FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds


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