Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 271209
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
709 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Early this morning...southwest flow aloft existed with a stream of
upper level disturbances tracking into our region from the Lower MS
Valley and TX Gulf Coast.  A strong storm system anchoring all of
this was centered over eastern CO.  Radar mosaic showed this stream
of disturbances from southeast MO thru the eastern half of TX with
the leftovers of the main severe wx event yesterday from the main
storm system in eastern CO now working its way thru far western MO
but is weakening.

This pattern should continue thru much of today, with the first
solid area of rain working its way thru early this morning for
southeast MO, STL metro and southern IL.  The weakening remnants of
the Plains convection should continue into central MO later this
morning.  After perhaps a brief interlude in the pcpn, another round
of showers and t-storms should build back into the area late this
afternoon and continue thru this evening with the next embedded
disturbance rolling northeastward.

Due to the clouds and high PoPs today, went conservative with max
temps, and kept most locations in the 75-80 range.  Min temps
tonight should be in the 65-70 range with dewpoints already in the
mid 60s.

TES

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Southwest flow aloft continues for one more day and will maintain
the areawide rain threat, ending with passage of a surface cold
front later on Saturday night.

After a brief dry period on Sunday and much of Monday with a weak
RIDGE aloft and surface high pressure prevailing, a resumption of
this wet pattern will occur late Monday and for much of the
remainder of next week with southwest flow aloft again and a stream
of upper level disturbances.

Temperatures will remain at or above average during this period with
max temps mainly in the 80s and mins in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Patchy IFR/MVFR CIGs are affecting the area this mrng with the
most persistent CIGs in cntrl MO where KCOU has been IFR since
around 8Z. CIGs should slowly improve to VFR over the next several
hrs as an area of rain across SE MO and SW IL lifts N. This
activity should move out of the terminals by late mrng which
should give the area a break in the precip. Addtnl SHRAs/TSTMs are
expected to dvlp this aftn and continue thru the evng. Precip
should push east of the terminals by late evng. Outside of the
IFR/MVFR CIgs this mrng it should be a VFR fcst though there could
be IFR conditions assoc with the stronger cells this aftn/evng.

Specifics for KSTL:

Patchy MVFR conditions dot the STL metro area so addntl lower CIGs
are possible before conditions improve over the next few hrs.
Area of rain lifting N out of SE MO will continue to impact the
terminal with periodic MVFR VSBYs thru 15Z. There should be a
break in the precip for midday before more SHRAs/TSTMs devlp this
aftn. Could be brief IFR conditions assoc with stronger cells this
aftn/evng. Activity lifts out of the terminal by midnight with VFR
conditions expected for the remainder of the prd.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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