Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 010902

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
302 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Clouds, and resultant temps, will again be the focus for today and

Area of stratus trapped under cyclonic flow of the stacked low over
Great Lakes region will continue to spread esewd this morning.
Expect diurnal CU to develop along the periphery of the cloud deck
which shud be slow to burn off this evening. This area of clouds is
expected to slowly move nwd tonight. Additionally, expect an area of
mid clouds to develop over the KS/OK region and spread into the srn
portions of the CWA tonight.

Otherwise, winds will remain wly with gusts to around 20 kts today.
With a much more relaxed pressure gradient tonight, expect winds to
diminish shortly after sunset as the low system pulls out of the
region and a sfc ridge builds into the area.

Have therefore trended twd the cooler guidance today across the
region. There is a fair amount of uncertainty for temps tonight as a
brief period of a clear sky with light winds will allow temps to
drop quickly. Despite increasing cloud cover expected, have trended
twd cooler guidance overnight.


.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Surface ridge to remain over region on Friday with dry and partly
sunny conditions expected. Highs will be near normal in the low 40s
to low 50s.

In the meantime, system over the southwestern US continues to
strengthen. First in a series of shortwaves to lift northeastward
towards forecast area by Friday night/Saturday morning, trying to
phase with northern stream system. Clouds and moisture will be on
the increase. Light rain to develop and spread northward across the
region by Saturday night. Surface temperatures look to be a bit
warmer than previously forecast, so precipitation will mainly be in
the form of rain with some snow mixed in at times late Saturday
night/early Sunday morning. So no accumulation expected. Rain to
taper off by Sunday afternoon.

Dry and near normal temperatures to persist on Monday, as main
system lifts out towards forecast area, phasing with another
northern stream system. Precipitation chances will be on the
increase once again by Monday afternoon, with best chances Monday
night. Lows will be in the mid to upper 30s, so could see a few
flakes mixed in, before tapering off Monday morning.

Beyond that, active pattern to continue as next system strengthens
on lee side of Rockies and moves in by Wednesday.


.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

An expansive area of stratus was in place across the region at
TAF issuance. A steady flow of drier air at low levels has caused
ceilings to rise over the last few hours, especially along the
southwestern edge of the cloud deck. Clouds should begin to
dissipate over KCOU and KSTL/KSUS/KCPS over the next 1-3 hours,
but clouds will likely remain in place at KUIN. An area of MVFR
cigs was noted upstream and appears likely to reach KUIN within
the next few hours. Winds will remain westerly at all TAF sites
with occasional gusts up to 20 kts.


Saint Louis     45  33  46  32 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          41  27  42  29 /   0   5   0   0
Columbia        44  28  46  29 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  45  28  47  30 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           43  30  45  31 /   0   0   0   0
Farmington      46  29  49  31 /   0   0   0   0



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