Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 012330
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
630 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IN AREAS WHERE A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 2000 J/KG MOSTLY
UNCAPPED SBCAPE SO A FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY PULSE UP IN INTENSITY...
HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP STORMS BRIEF AND
UNORGANIZED. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES DIURNALLY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE...LEAVING QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.

LAFLIN

.LONG TERM:  (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S EARLY EACH
AFTERNOON...AND RELATIVELY HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP HOLD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BREAK UNTIL MONDAY WHEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SENDS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW THIS
FEATURE...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LAFLIN

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS DOES THE FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL MO. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FOG/BR PRIMARILY IN THE 10-13Z PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
4-5SM, THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR ALL TERMINALS
EXPECT KSTL. THEREAFTER VFR WILL PERSIST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING NEAR MIDDAY WED.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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