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000
FXUS63 KLSX 060922
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
322 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 319 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014

Upper level trof over lower Mississippi River valley to continue
sliding east southeast away from forecast area with weak surface
ridge building in. So main forecast issue today will be dealing with
the lingering stratus that has developed over western portions of
Missouri with this system. Models show low level rh continuing to
lower so expect stratus to slowly scatter out this morning.
Otherwise, mid and high clouds with the system continue to make good
progress to the east with mostly sunny skies by midday. Despite
light east to southeast flow, temperatures to warm up into the low
40s to low 50s, with warmest temps over central MO.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014

By tonight, surface ridge to move off to the east allowing
southerly flow to return to the region once again. Temperatures
tonight will be a bit milder, in the mid 20s to low 30s. Then
things begin to really warmup on Friday under partly to mostly
sunny skies. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s, well above
normal for this time of year.

Then next weather system to approach region Friday night with
increasing low level moisture and light rain mixed with light snow
developing along and behind a cold front. The cold front will
slide southeast through the region, with precipitation tapering
off by early Saturday evening. Lows Friday night will be in the
upper 20s to mid 30s. With clouds and precipitation, highs on
Saturday will be a bit cooler, in the upper 30s to low 50s. Lows
Saturday night will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Surface ridge to build in and dry things out for the last half of
the weekend. So highs on Sunday will be in the mid 40s to low 50s,
near normal for this time of year.

Another warm day can be expected on Monday as ridge moves off to the
east, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Beyond that extended
models showing some timing and placement differences with frontal
boundary moving into region on Tuesday. Still expect some rain,
mixed with snow at times Tuesday night and Wednesday with this
system. As for temperatures through the period, highs on Tuesday
will depend on where the cold front is. For now still expect above
normal temps with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s on Tuesday, then
dip down into the mid 40s to mid 50s on Wednesday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2014

MVFR CIGs affecting UIN currently are expected to eventually erode
and push to the west and northwest thanks to easterly flow at the
surface and aloft. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at the
TAF sites thru the valid period. An expansive area of mid and hi
clouds will push off to the east late tonight and Thursday
morning, leaving behind only occasional incursions of thin hi
clouds thereafter. East-northeast winds at the surface across the
area will become light-variable on Thursday as a ridge builds in,
and then southerly Thursday night.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR thru the period. Northeast surface winds
will become light-variable late Thursday afternoon and then
southerly toward daybreak Friday morning.

TES
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX