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000
FXUS63 KLSX 131814
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
114 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 952 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

Continue to receive reports of pea size hail over extreme
southeast St, Louis county. However convective trends appear to
weaken over the last 30 to 60 minutes over the bi-state region.
Rain showers and a few isolated storms continue over central
Missouri and also shows a weakening trend. Will continue to
monitor the situation

Przybylinski

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

At this time, there appear to be two broad possibilities for today`s
convective trends.

The first possibility is that a coupled jet structure at H3 combined
with increasing large scale ascent ahead of an approaching vort max
will provide sufficient lift for scattered thunderstorms to
percolate throughout most of the day before the cold front arrives
later tonight (similar to what happened on April 3rd when the
convection kept redeveloping all day). These storms would tend to be
elevated due to a decent capping inversion located roughly in the
850-750mb layer which persists through most of the day, at least
according to model soundings in BUFKIT. One item in support of this
scenario is that the LLJ was already forcing iso-sct elevated
thunderstorms early this morning across KS/OK/MO, and these storms
have increased in coverage over the past couple of hours despite the
cap.

However, model forecasts of instability and H7-H5 lapse rates are
not exactly impressive across the LSX CWA today, which would suggest
lower SHRA/TSRA coverage. The best instability remains west of the
CWA even during peak heating, and H7-H5 lapse rates actually become
less favorable with time over eastern MO and southwest IL. This kind
of pattern in the model fields is sometimes an indirect indication
of widespread convection in the models, which would tend to support
the scenario described above. However, if the less favorable
instability parameters are representative of the real atmosphere and
if the capping inversion is strong enough, then convection may
struggle to make eastward progress, which would allow plenty of time
for the air mass to destabilize ahead of the cold front, leading to
stronger instability parameters than what would be expected from
this morning`s model output alone.

The gridded forecast for today reflects two general ideas rather
than a particular scenario. First, ongoing early morning
thunderstorms may reach the western and northwestern CWA. Second,
convection chances increase and spread eastward with time,
particularly during the afternoon hours.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun
Apr 13 2014

(Tonight-Monday night)

Like thunderstorms trends suggested by the explicit models
heading into the evening hours, with some of the warm sector
storms of today continuing over the CWA early while the more
intense convection that develops along the cold front from NW MO
into E KS also rolls east with the front as the night progresses.
While evening severe weather potential may be modulated by this
afternoons storms (as mentioned in the short term AFD),
pockets of heavy rain still look like a good bet, with strong
system dynamics and ample moisture with PWATs of nearly 1.5
inches. Heaviest rains should be centered over northern sections
of the CWA, where storms that form along the cold front will be
focused during the evening hours. Think convection will become
somewhat less focused as front pushes into southeast parts of the
CWA due to lessening instability, and with the potential for
additional storms further south altering moisture transport into
our area.

The cold air that enters the area tonight will continue its surge
into the region on Monday, and by all indications Monday is going to
be a dismal April day, with intermittent light precip and steady or
falling temps to unseasonably cold levels, topped off by strong
northwest winds. 00z runs are continuing the trends of the 12z runs
in trending slower with the shutdown of the precip on Monday, as all
of the guidance indicates the last bit of shortwave energy not
entering the base of the trof until late Monday afternoon.  Because
of this I`ve upped PoPs some, and have introduced a bit of snow as
it now appears enough precip will linger after freezing levels drop
low enough to support frozen precip.  It`s not at all out of the
question that there could even be a bit of sleet, but mention of
snow should be enough of a reminder of winter.

Precip should wind down and end Monday evening over eastern sections
of the CWA and skies should clear with the passage of the upper
trof, setting the stage for a very cold April night.  Still not sure
how cold to go with winds staying up over most of the area but this
is one cold AMS, and MOS guidance has been adjusting temps down for
several model cycles. Have tweaked mins down a bit more from
going forecasts, with mins over all but the extreme southeast
sections of the CWA now in the 20s. These mins...which are an
indication of the intensity of the cold air and not of radiational
cooling... are near record lows for most locations...see climate
section for a list of records for April 15th.

Did think about issuing a headline for the impacts of these sub-
freezing temps on the early growing season, but have decided to
keep focus on storms today and tonight, and delay this issuance
until this afternoon or tomorrow morning.

(Tuesday-Saturday)

Little change in the medium range, with a slow moderation in temps
at midweek and a chance of a few showers by the end of the period
with the approach of another cold front.   Models are having
considerable difficulty with the timing of the front across the
central CONUS, and for now have stayed with initialized fields for
precip trends associated with this feature.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

Latest weather trends shows band of rainshowers from IRK through
central Missouri and southwest into south central Missouri moving
northeast into eastern sections of the state. Narrow band of
thunderstorms entering west-central Missouri at this time shows
recent signs of slight weakening. More organized storms continue
to develop from TOP to ICT. Eastern Missouri and southwest
Illinois will continue to receive light rainshowers this afternoon
ending by 2100 - 2200 UTC. The stronger storms along far western
Missouri shows trend of continued weakening as it hit more stable
air over central Missouri. Will bring in rainshowers over
COU...UIN...and STL terminal from 1800 UTC and ending
precipitation between 2100 to 2200 UTC. The band of storms
entering far western Missouri may reach COU area around 2300 -
0000 UTC if it holds together.

Specifics for KSTL:
Band of rainshowers from north central Missouri through south
central Missouri will enter STL area after 1800 and should
end around 2100 UTC. Expect visibility restrictions of about 5
miles in light rain. The stronger convection over far western
Missouri may not reach STL since this system will be entering in
more stable atmosphere. Stronger storms over east central through
south-central Kansas is associated with the cold front. This band
of storms will be entering the STL area after 0400 UTC. Gusty
winds are likely with these storms. Surface winds will likely be
southwest at 15 kts with gusts to as high as 25 kts.

Przybylinski

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR 4/15:

STL - 27 IN 1928
COU - 25 IN 1928
UIN - 24 IN 1928
FAM - 24 IN 1928


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX