Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 282039
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
339 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

Isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
early this evening ahead of 500-hPa shortwave trough with the best
coverage of storms across central Missouri. Combination of nocturnal
stabilization and subsidence behind aforementioned shortwave
should lead to weakening/dissipation of storms as well as a
corresponding drop in coverage late evening/early overnight. Late
tonight...sch/chc PoPs for showers/storms return to the area as
LLJ strengthens and veers from the SSW to the WSW late tonight. As
for temperatures...mild conditions are expected due to a partly to
mostly cloudy sky and a light southerly breeze. Expect lows
tonight in the mid to upper 60s areawide.


Gosselin


.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015


(Friday-Saturday Night)

Another shortwave trough will eject out toward the mid-Mississippi Valley
during the day tomorrow...similar to today just a bit further to the
northwest. PoPs will be on the increase especially Friday afternoon
for portions of central/northeast Missouri as well as west-central Illinois
as synoptic cold front associated with northern stream energy slowly sags
southeastward into region. Continued likely PoPs for showers and storms
for Friday afternoon. As for chances of severe weather...appears any
widespread strong/severe storms will be difficult due to weak deep-layer
shear values...around 20 knots. However...isolated strong to severe storms
with large hail/damaging winds does look plausible due to moderately
strong instability (1000-2000 J/kg) values.

Cold front will continue its slow southeastward progression on
Friday night and Saturday. Highest probabilities for showers and
thunderstorms continues to hone in on this period. Timing of cold
front looks to clear CWA by mid/late Saturday morning. Like Friday
...deep-layer shear/instability parameters do not look supportive
of any widespread severe weather...but a strong to severe storm is
not out of the question. Behind the front...showers (along with
some possible embedded thunder) look likely as shortwave trough
slows down and upper-level jet streak backbuilds to the southwest
putting CWFA beneath the RER.

Temperatures on Saturday look to be challenging due to frontal
timing and associated precip chances. Leaned cool (highs in the
upepr 60s to low 70s) for areas well behind the front in central and
northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois where clouds are
expected to linger along with strong low-level CAA from the north.
For areas further to the south and east...did not deviate too much
from guidance with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees expected.

Tightened PoP gradient a bit on Saturday night with highest PoPs
remaining across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois in closer
proximity to cold front. Did remove some mention of thunder well
behind the front due to lack of instability. Surface high across
the Great Lakes will begin flexing its muscle with much cooler and
drier weather beginning to filter into from the north and east.
Forecast lows are expected to dip back below seasonal norms with
lows generally in the 50s expected.


(Sunday-Thursday)

A cutoff low is still expected to develop somewhere near the
bootheel of Missouri on Sunday. Confined PoPs to far southeastern
sections of the area which will be closer in distance to this
feature as well as remnant cold frontal boundary. Instability looks
meager at best so just mentioned isolated tunder for the far
southern and eastern counties. Lingering clouds with 850-hPa dipping
to near +10C should yield a chilly day for very late May. Highs only
in the mid to upper 60s are expected on Sunday.

Cutoff low is expected to meander slowly to the south/southwest
heading into the middle of next week. Precipitation chances look low
as region will likely be too far north of aforementioned cutoff low
and too far south of main corridor of cyclones transversing the
upper Midwest. Best chance of showers/storms at the moment appears
to be on Thursday with chance PoPs as GFS suggests a trough axis may
approach the area from the west. All in all...the extended portion
of the forecast Monday through Thursday appears to be mostly dry
with moderating temperatures back above normal by Thursday.


Gosselin


&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

An east-west oriented warm front was located just south of Interstate
70 extending from southern KS across southern MO into southern IL
at midday. A warm and unstable air mass was located along and
south of this front. The front will slowly lift northward this
afternoon allowing the northward spread of the warm and unstable
conditions and fueling scattered showers and thunderstorms. Already
an organized cluster of storms is located south of KCOU and thus
have a TEMPO group this afternoon, while the coverage and direct
impacts are less certain for the St. Louis region terminals and
opted for VCTS. Will monitor closely thru the afternoon and AMD as
needed if direct terminal impacts are evident. Much of this
activity should diminish at sunset however another area of showers
and thunderstorms originating in western MO this afternoon has
potential to impact KCOU early this evening and possibly KUIN.
Otherwise a mix of high-end MVFR and low-end VFR cigs are expected
this afternoon with potential for MVFR cigs again on Friday
morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

A warm front will move north of the terminal this afternoon allowing
for the northward spread of warm and unstable conditions. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible within the St. Louis metro
area between 19-23z however direct terminal impacts are uncertain
given the scattered coverage of storms and have opted at this time
for VCTS. Will monitor closely thru the afternoon and AMD as needed
if direct terminal impacts are evident. Much of this activity
should diminish at sunset. Otherwise a mix of high-end MVFR and
low-end VFR cigs are expected this afternoon with potential for
the same flight conditions again on Friday morning.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     69  84  69  78 /  30  60  50  70
Quincy          66  81  65  69 /  30  70  70  50
Columbia        66  79  65  71 /  50  70  70  50
Jefferson City  67  80  66  71 /  50  60  70  50
Salem           68  84  69  79 /  30  40  40  70
Farmington      66  80  68  77 /  30  50  50  60

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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