Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 281159
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
659 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

Weak frontal boundary that moved south through forecast area
yesterday has stalled out just south of region. It will begin to
lift back north through forecast area today, with some scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible mainly during the afternoon
hours. In the meantime, storm complex over central Kansas early
this morning will continue to track to the east, reaching central
MO by midday. At this point, it will be in the weakening stages.
Otherwise, it will be warm and a bit muggy with highs in the low
to mid 80s and dewpts in the 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

By tonight, first in a series of more vigorous shortwaves will begin
to slide through forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms will be on
the increase with best chances still expected Friday through
Saturday. As for severe weather potential, it will be with main cold
front Friday afternoon and night, and again on Saturday. It
continues to hinge on how much instability can be attained in the
warm sector ahead of boundary.

Temperatures will remain on the warm side through Friday, with highs
in the 80s. Then colder air to filter in as front moves through. By
Sunday, precipitation to taper off and will see highs only in the
60s.

Beyond that, upper low becomes cut off and lingers over Arkansas
through rest of forecast period. Could see diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms, mainly for southern portions of forecast area,
from Monday through Wednesday, so have slight chance pops during the
daytime hours. Highs to moderate through the period, warming back
into the 80s by Wednesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

Earlier fog that had moved into KSUS and KCPS has already burned
off, so have left it out initial issuance of the TAF. Should see
mainly dry and VFR conditions the rest of the morning as the fog
and lower ceilings are staying well south and east of the St.
Louis metro TAF sites. Only concern for the forecast period is
thunderstorms which some models are showing developing at KCOU and
KUIN during the afternoon and evening hours. There is still some
uncertainty on the timing and whether or not they will develop or
not, so have just gone with VCTS for now. Chances are less at the
St. Louis metro airports, so have just left them dry.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions for now with
winds increasing from the southeast by mid-morning.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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