Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 142345

545 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2016

Most of the snow has shifted east of our forecast area this
afternoon as the shortwave was moving eastward into northwest IL.
Will keep the winter weather advisory going for parts of west
central and southwest IL until 6 pm due to patchy freezing
drizzle. The threat for patchy freezing drizzle should end later
this evening as the low level stratus cloud deck shifts east of
the area. Mid-high level cloudiness will spread back into the area
late tonight as another shortwave dives southeastward through the
Plains. Went a little colder than MOS temperature guidance for
tonight due to the new snow cover over much of the area.


.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2016

A shortwave and an associated surface low will pass south of our
area on Monday. Precipitation with this feature should remain
south of the forecast area, but the GFS model does generate a few
areas of light QPF over our region on Monday. Could not rule out
some patchy light rain/snow over our area on Monday. Temperatures
will be noticeably warmer on Monday, finally getting well above
the freezing mark for much of the area after a cold weekend. A
strong northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low will
be dropping southeastward through our area late Monday night and
Tuesday bringing another shot of rain/snow to the area. The NAM
and GFS models are similar in generating most of their QPF across
northeast MO and west central and southwest IL, but the ECMWF
model continues to have a more southwest track to the weather
system and has most of its QPF west of the Mississippi River. For
now will lean toward the NAM and GFS model solutions and put my
highest pops over northeast MO and west central and southwest IL.
Although temperatures will be fairly warm again on Tuesday there
will be the potential for a little accumulating snow late Monday
night and Tuesday morning across northeast MO and west central IL.
The models continue to depict unseasonably warm and windy
conditions for the end of the work week as an upper level ridge
moves over the region on Thursday, along with strong south-
southwesterly winds due to a tight surface pressure gradient over
our area ahead of a low pressure system moving eastward through the
northern Plains. Our next chance of measurable rain should occur
mainly Saturday night as a weak low pressure system moves
eastward through southern portions of MO and IL.



.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 544 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2016

Expect mainly dry conditions through the period. VFR ceilings
currently moving in over west central Missouri will likely move
into KCOU and the St. Louis area terminals during the evening
hours. MVFR or IFR ceilings will likely persist at KUIN most of
the evening and overnight hours. Some MVFR visibilities in BR will
likely redevelop late tonight and early monday morning before VFR
conditions prevail by late Monday morning. Generally light winds
are expected.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect mainly dry conditions through the
period. MVFR ceilings are expected to lift to VFR during the
overnight hours though some MVFR BR is expected to develop late
tonight and early on Monday. VFR conditions are then expected to
prevail by mid-late morning.



IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Adams IL-
     Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington



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