Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 130537

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1137 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 310 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

A very dry airmass and mixing up to 900mb has caused dewpoints to
fall into the single digits across the area this afternoon.  A
surface ridge currently over western Missouri will move east across
the area this evening and then the current westerly surface winds
will back southerly by morning.  There will be a slight chance of
rain over northeast Missouri into west central Illinois on Wednesday
morning/early afternoon as a weak shortwave moves southeast across
the Midwest.  The attendant cold front will move south across the
region by tomorrow afternoon bringing an reinforcing shot of cold
air to the region. Lows tonight will be similar to what they were
this morning. Highs tomorrow will be warmer than today as 850mb
temperatures climb to around 0C, and surface winds will turn out
of the southwest ahead of the front.


.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Colder temperatures will then move into the area for late week as
850mb temperatures drop to between -5 and -10C in the
northwesterly flow aloft according to the latest runs of the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM. These days are still expected to be dry, however
these models are still advertising that there will be a pattern
change by the weekend as the eastern longwave trough moves east
which allows the northwesterly upper flow to transition to
southwesterly. This will allow for warm and moist air to advect
northward into the Midwest over the weekend. At this point, will
keep above normal temperatures over the weekend with a chance of
rain over the southern half of the area on Sunday. The best chance
of rain with a chance of mixed precipitation will be on Sunday
night over the southern half of the CWA. Do have some concerns
with this forecast as the timing and placing of QPF amongst the
models differs. Dry weather is expected on Monday and Tuesday as
a surface high moves across the area.



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Dry VFR for all terminals throught the period. Southwest winds
shifting to southerly overnight ahead of approaching cold front.
Winds will veer to west as front moves through late Wednesday
morning with gusts up to 30 kts possible. Low level wind shear is
also possible as front approaches for all sites.


VFR conditions overnight ahead of approaching cold front. The
front will pass through the terminal late morning shifting the
winds from south to northwestern with gusts of up to 30 kts. Low
level wind shear is possible as front approaches.



Issued at 310 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Heightened fire danger is expected again over parts of southeast
Missouri on Wednesday. This area is experiencing severe drought with
fuel moistures at the RAWS stations in southeast Missouri dropping
below 10 percent this afternoon.  Forecast minimum relative humidity
will fall to between 25-30 percent during the afternoon and
sustained westerly winds will be between 12-15 mph.





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