Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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424
FXUS63 KLSX 221712
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1212 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Have continued a persistence forecast again for today. Ample
insolation shud allow similar temps to yesterday. With swly winds
returning, temps may be a couple of degrees warmer.

Do not anticipate precip across the region today. Some guidance
suggests that ongoing convection over ern NEB may spread an outflow
boundary swd near the nrn portions of the CWA. Do not anticipate
anything more than some clouds if the boundary does make it that far
south.

Tilly

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Upper level ridge to remain over region through Friday night, so dry
and above normal conditions expected. With plenty of heat and
humidity, highs will be well above normal in the upper 80s to low
90s on Friday.

By Saturday, upper ridge begins to weaken and shift to the east as
digging upper level trof and associated surface cold front lift east
northeastward towards forecast area. Despite increasing clouds as
system moves closer, will still see temps well above normal in the
85 to 90 degree range.

Models have a better handle on this system in the interim and will
see storms on the increase from west to east late Saturday night
through Sunday as cold front moves through, stalling out just to our
east. So our best chances of rain will be Sunday and Sunday night.

Beyond that the models continue to have differences in strength,
timing and placement of this system. GFS keeps upper level trof to
our west with a series of shortwaves lifting northeastward through
region, while ECMWF has upper level trof and surface low track
eastward through Great Lakes region with attendant cold front
stalling out just to the south of forecast area. Despite the
differences, both keep chances of rain across the region through
Tuesday night before tapering off by mid week.

As for temperatures, with plenty of cloud cover, precipitation and
cooler air behind the cold front, will see high temps near seasonal
norms in the 70s across the forecast area.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period. The one
exception may come early Friday morning at SUS/CPS, where some
light fog will once again be possible. Latest obs are very
similar to yesterday at this time, so have gone with a
persistence forecast for fog. Otherwise, expect just a few/sct
high clouds at all sites from time to time.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR conditions to prevail through the period with generally light
SSW winds.

KD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     91  67  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          90  66  89  67 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        89  66  89  66 /   5   5   0   0
Jefferson City  91  66  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           90  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Farmington      89  62  87  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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