Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 040829
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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