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000
FXUS63 KLSX 071704
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1104 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 203 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

A beautiful day is expected with temperatures warming into the
50s/60s as the 850mb thermal ridge is expected to be aligned along
I-44/I-70 corridor in Missouri/Illinois by this afternoon. At or
above MOS guidance has been the way to go this week and see no
reason today will be an exception.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 203 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

Shortwave currently located across Nevada will continue to deepen
and drop southeast toward Arizona/New Mexico, while the broader
upper level trof aligns from southwest to northeast across the
Midwest on Saturday. At the surface a cold front will drop south
tonight and Saturday across the CWA with falling temperatures a
good bet. A band of post frontal precipitation is likely to
develop from west to east during the afternoon along and south of
I-70 in concert with the upper level trof passage. 00Z model
guidance came in a little cooler and suggest that the rain may mix
with snow as the colder air builds south. No accumulation is
expected at this time.

Surface ridge will quickly move across the CWA Saturday night and
Sunday morning with a southwest surface wind returning to the CWA by
Sunday afternoon. So after a relatively cool start to the day,
temperatures should rebound Sunday afternoon under a sunny sky.

Still on track for a couple of stellar days early next week with
temperatures back into the 60s Monday and Tuesday. Next cold front
ends the party Tuesday evening with another bout of colder air
building into the Midwest. Maintained chance POPs Tuesday night and
Wednesday for any post frontal precipitation, but discounted the
ECWMF which is the only model depicting a strong synoptic system
moving across the CWA on Wednesday.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1036 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

S-swly surface winds this aftn along with mid-high level clouds.
A cold front extending from nwrn WI sw through sern Nebraska and
nrn KS will move sewd through the taf sites tonight. The front
will move through UIN around 00z Saturday and through the St Louis
metro area around 06z Saturday. The surface wind will veer around
to a n-nwly direction after fropa. Post frontal MVFR cigs will
advect into the taf sites late tgt/early Saturday morning. There
will also be some light rain/snow in UIN and COU late tgt and
Saturday mrng, and light rain in the St Louis metro area Saturday
mrng.

Specifics for KSTL: S-swly surface winds along with mid-high level
clouds this aftn and this evng. A cold front will drop sewd
through STL around 06z Saturday with the surface wind veering
around to a n-nwly direction after fropa. Post frontal MVFR clouds
will move into STL around 12z Saturday. There may be some light
rain Saturday mrng, but the better chance of rain will occur
Saturday aftn with the approach of an upper level disturbance.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX