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000
FXUS63 KLSX 161219
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
719 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WERE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA ALONG THE COLD FRONT LAST EVENING
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.  EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED ASCENT AS UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA
MOVES EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS.  LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP/LOCAL WRF SHOW
THAT THERE WILL BE INCREASING 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHWEST IL.  A SECOND FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.  WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN
CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THAT OVERALL FORCING AND INSTABILITY
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE INSTABILITY IS PARTIALLY
CAPPED.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM...AND MIXING DOWN 850MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT GOING HIGHS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE.

BRITT

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE N-NE OF OUR AREA TGT.  MAY STILL HAVE
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVNG.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS SERN MO LATE TGT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH SRN MO AND NRN AR AS
DEPICTED BY THE NCEP 4 KM WRF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRI INTO FRI EVNG AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SEWD
THROUGH NRN MO AND INTO IL. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD
OVER MO FRI NGT AND SAT...AND THIS COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT SLY
SFC/LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON SUN. MAY HAVE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SAT AFTN
INTO SAT EVNG. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR SUN AFTN
ACROSS NERN AND CNTRL MO AS A SW FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES NEWD
THROUGH THIS AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY
EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE POPS SHOULD INCREASE SUN NGT AND MON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND
WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE WEAK SW FLOW SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA...THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL NOT LIKELY
MOVE SEWD THROUGH OUR AREA TIL TUE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. COOLER...NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING TUE AND CONTINUING
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE SEWD THROUGH IA AND NRN IL ON WED
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE
TAFS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN I EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z BEFORE LOW
MVFR CEILINGS/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AFTER 09Z.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 30 HOURS. CURRENTLY EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE AROUND THE TERMINAL LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AFTER 09Z.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX