Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 020857
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Early morning SH/TS expected to continue pushing east and south with
the sinking synoptic boundary and a veering LLJ. The Flash Flood
Watch has been canceled early for the counties where rain has
already ended. Additional counties may be canceled over the next few
hours based on radar trends.

After a lull in SH/TS over most of the area for today (except
possibly across the southern CWA in closer proximity to outflow
boundaries and in the higher terrain of the eastern Ozarks),
precipitation chances increase again late tonight and tomorrow as
the quasistationary frontal boundary lifts back northeastward as a
warm front and a southwesterly LLJ begins to interact with it.
Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

An approaching cold front will bring the next chance of SH/TS to
the area late this week, however the best dynamics are forecast to
remain north of the CWA.

Expect warm temperatures (80s-90s) through the end of the week
followed by a rapid cool-down on Sat. The warmest day of the week
will probably be on Thursday after the passage of a warm front on
the previous day and in the absence of widespread precip/cloud
cover along with H85 temperatures increasing to 20-22 deg C. The
coolest days will probably be on Saturday and Sunday behind a cold
front. The cooler weather might even last into Monday. Expect
highs to be around 10 degrees cooler on Saturday compared to
Friday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

MCS complex continues to track to the east across forecast area.
Should see storms taper off over KCOU by 07z and over metro area
after 09z. Did keep mention of showers for a few more hours before
tapering off towards sunrise. As for KUIN, to remain north of
rain. Because of weak boundaries and ridging, winds to remain
light and variable except around storms. Clouds to scatter out by
midday to early afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:
MCS complex continues to track to the east across forecast area.
Should see storms taper off over metro area after 09z. Did keep
mention of showers through 11z before tapering off. Because of
weak boundaries and ridging, winds to remain light and variable
except around storms. Clouds to scatter out by 20z Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Iron MO-
     Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Bond IL-
     Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






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