Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 230844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
344 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

As surface ridge continues to slide off to the southeast today, next
cold front to begin sliding through this afternoon. In the meantime,
with decent gradient between the ridge and cold front, gusty south
to southwest winds will help temperatures to rise into the mid to
upper 70s under sunny skies.

With little in the way of moisture associated with cold front, it
will slide through dry late this afternoon before exiting forecast
area this evening. Only indication of frontal passage will be winds
shifting to the northwest to north and diminishing. Not a lot of
cold air behind this front, so will see lows near normal in the low
40s far north to the upper 40s south tonight.


.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Not much change from the prev forecast. Period begins with the sfc
cdfnt south of the CWA and heights rising across the region. Have
generally trended twd a compromise for Mon. With the sfc ridge
building ewd out of the region and winds becoming more sly, have
trended twd warmer guidance thru Tues night. Mdls have trended
slower with the approaching system on Wed, although, the GFS is a
faster soln. With better agreement, have trended twd the slower
solns and attempted to account for mdls to slow down some more with
future cycles.

Have added some low PoPs Fri night and Sat with the GFS dropping a
backdoor fnt into nern portions of the CWA with a sfc wave
developing along it. With the ECMWF suggesting a stronger sfc ridge
over the OH Valley and a stronger upper trof, this soln develops the
sfc wave further north and keeps precip largely out of the area. Is
too early to start trends twd one soln over the other with each
getting support from other mdls. Will continue to watch trends with
future updates.



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Surface high
pressure continues to slide off to the southeast tonight as an
area of low pressure moves across the Northern Plains. This regime
will help induce a low-level jet overnight, bringing a period of
LLWS to all sites early Sunday morning. Otherwise, Sunday will
feature southwesterly winds with gusts to around 15-20 knots,
turning more to the WNW by the end of the period as a dry cold
front moves through all sites.

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will
increase out of the WSW just off the surface tonight, which will
lead to a period of marginal LLWS late tonight into early Sunday
morning. Surface winds will increase out of the WSW by Sunday
afternoon, which could cause some crosswind impacts on the three
larger runways. Otherwise, a dry cold front will push through
Sunday evening, turning winds more out of the WNW.



Saint Louis     78  48  66  47 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          75  44  63  44 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        75  45  66  48 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  77  46  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           75  46  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Farmington      76  47  67  43 /   0   0   0   0




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