Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 290801
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
301 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Instability sprinkles are possible this afternoon, but the
steepest lapse rates remain well to the north and east of the CWA.
High temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday
for most areas, but still 8-10 degrees below average for this time
of year.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Previous forecast trends look reasonable and no major changes were
required with this forecast package. Ongoing northwest flow
pattern aloft will persist through the end of the week and into
the weekend. There are no strong signals for either widespread
precipitation or hot/humid weather during this time. Light
precip is possible each afternoon this week due to instability-
driven showers (possibly aided by transient vorticity maxima) and
perhaps a few thunderstorms, but most locations are expected to
remain dry. Moisture/instability parameters look a bit better on
Thu aftn compared to the rest of the week. The upper air pattern
begins to change over the weekend after a complex closed upper low
near Hudson Bay lifts northeastward and a ridge over the western
CONUS begins to shift into the plains.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Surface ridge to continue building into the region tonight with
light and variable winds and clear skies. There are still some
lingering mid clouds floating south through forecast area but they
should continue to dissipate. Otherwise, winds to pickup a bit by
mid morning from the northwest with some diurnal cu. Then winds
and clouds to diminish by sunset once again. Some models are
indicating a shortwave could undercut the ridge Tuesday afternoon
with some scattered showers possible. But confidence is low for
now, so kept tafs dry at this time.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface ridge to continue building into the region tonight with
light and variable winds and clear skies. Otherwise, winds to
pickup a bit by 15z Tuesday from the northwest with some diurnal cu.
Then winds and clouds to diminish by sunset once again. Some
models are indicating a shortwave could undercut the ridge Tuesday
afternoon with some scattered showers possible. But confidence is
low for now, so kept taf dry at this time.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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