Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 252045

345 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Although it`s hard to believe based on afternoon temperatures in
the mid-70s to lower 80s, a weak cold front did move into the CWA
earlier this morning before stalling out. A surface high moving
through the western Great Lakes will nudge the stalled front a bit
farther south tonight before the boundary lifts back northeastward
as a warm front. A band of clouds may accompany the warm frontal
passage late tonight and tomorrow, although cloud cover should be
greater over the plains compared to eastern MO and western IL.
Some fog is also possible overnight ahead of the surface front,
mainly in central MO and parts of the eastern Ozarks, because dew
points should be a bit higher there compared to areas which will
still be under the influence of the surface ridge and its drier
air. Unseasonably warm temperatures (15-20 deg above average) are
expected again on Sunday and Monday.


.LONG TERM: (Monday night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

A low pressure system was noted off the CA/OR coastline this
morning, and this system will ultimately bring a chance of
widespread rain to the area on Monday night and Tuesday. Models
depict a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE on Monday night, which should
be sufficient for a few embedded thunderstorms. Comparatively
speaking, a much cooler air mass will then spread across the
region on Tuesday and Tuesday night, ending the recent string of
unseasonably warm October days.

Isolated to scattered showers are possible on Wednesday night into
Thursday due to lift ahead of a shortwave which will be moving
through northwest flow.



.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

VFR conditions expected through the overnight hours at all TAF
sites. A weak cold front across northern Missouri will sag
southward as high pressure builds in from Nebraska. Light and
variable surface winds will become light northerly this afternoon. Some
stratus based at around 2000 feet may creep into the area from
southwest to northeast on Sunday morning as a warm from
approaches. For now, will keep cloud cover at scattered coverage,
and brief evening shift to watch for possible inclusion of an MVFR
deck if later model output continues to indicate this. Light
northerly winds will veer overnight into Sunday as the surface
high moves quickly off to the east and surface low pressure
develops over the plains states.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions expected through at least 12Z Sunday with light
north winds. Areas of MVFR ceilings to 2000 feet may move across
the TAF site after around 18Z Sunday, and later updates may require
inclusion of a prevailing MVFR ceiling. Winds will veer overnight
and become southeast during the day Sunday.





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