Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 191716

1216 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Not too many changes made to the forecast as the overall pattern
begins to transition from one reminiscent of this past winter to a
more typical summer time regime. The eastern CONUS trof will fade as
an upper level ridge begins to expand from the four corners region
to the Midwest early next week. Temperatures will continue their
slow trend back to normal by Monday with the potential for at least
one hot day on Tuesday.


.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Evening Through Next Week)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Extended portion of the forecast remains muddled with the models
sending a shortwave up and over the ridge during the middle of the
work week. The best dynamics with the system will likely remain
north and northeast of the CWA, but the prospect of a slow moving
cold front interacting with a very hot and unstable airmass gives
credence to retaining at least chance PoPs Tuesday evening through
Wednesday night.

A series of shortwaves are advertised to pound the eastern periphery
of the upper level ridge heading into the next weekend with quasi-
northwest flow developing over the Midwest. This will keep
temperatures slightly below seasonal normals and increase the
threat of rainfall especially next Saturday and Sunday.



.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

VFR through the period with diurnal cu developing between 14-16z
and dissipating around 00-02z. Initially light winds will become
southeasterly to southerly around the back side of a high pressure





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