Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 010843
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
343 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN AN SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP SHOW THIS FORCING
ERODING AROUND 12Z.  ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR
IT TO ACT ON.  HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH A MCS
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA INTO INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 18-20C.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW-
MID 90S WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB.

BRITT

.LONG TERM: (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)

WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA.  CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  BOTH DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH MOS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND
850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR 20C.

(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

IT STILL LOOK LIKE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.  BEST CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A NOTABLE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW SHOWERS STILL REMAIN NEAR KUIN TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY AND TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. QUINCY MAY BE
AFFECTED TOWARD OR AFTER 0600 UTC BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW
SINCE IT IS SO LATE IN THE PERIOD.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALSO EXPECTED.

GOSSELIN

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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