Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 200452

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1152 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Not a lot of change in the forecast from the last update. Still
believe area of TSRA will move south to southeastward thru the
evening. There is still some uncertainty regarding if these storms
will be severe. However, with MLCAPE values of 3000 J/kg across
parts of the area, a threat will continue. Given the warm temps,
damaging winds will remain the primary threat with any storms.

Thunderstorms shud gradually weaken thru the evening and diminish.
However, with the LLJ strengthening and veering thru the night,
believe redevelopment is possible, mainly over ern portions of the

Little change to the temps for tonight. Will need to monitor
conditions for fog development tonight, especially for locations
that received rain.


.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Hot and humid summertime weather pattern will continue into the
weekend due to a strong upper level ridge centered over the southern
Plains, along with persistent southerly or southwesterly surface
winds on the backside of a surface ridge southeast of our area.
Potential for convection on Wednesday, mainly across west central
and southwest IL on the edge of the cap as shortwaves continue to
overtop the upper level ridge. It appears that the upper level ridge
will try to shift a tad further east by Thursday with the warmer 700
mb temperatures shifting into the northern and western portions of
our forecast area tending to suppress convective development. Still
could not rule out isolated diurnal showers and storms during the
late afternoon and early evening hours.  High temperatures should
trend a little warmer for Thursday and Friday with potentially less
cloudiness, possibly approaching the century mark.  With continued
humid dew points in the 70s and highs in the 90s through Saturday
will extend the heat advisories and excessive heat warnings through
Saturday.  May be a graduall downward trend on daytime highs as well
as slight lowering of humidities beginning on Sunday as the upper
level ridge flattens and a cold front drops slowly southward through
our area.  More cloud cover and convection can also be expected
beginning on Sunday due to convergence along the frontal boundary
along with an uncapped atmosphere.  The ECMWF model is a little
cooler than the GFS due to a stronger upper level trough moving
eastward into the Great Lakes region, but both model solutions
should lead to at least normal late July temperatures. The
convective potential may shift just south and west of our forecast
area by Monday afternoon or evening due to surface ridging extending
from the Great Lakes region southwest into MO.



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites thru the
valid period. There is increasing concern that there will be some
VSBY reductions in mist just before sunrise thanks to the wet
ground at most sites and what should be clearing skies and already
low dewpoint depressions. Have added in TEMPO groups for this at
most sites, save KSTL. Otherwise, surface winds will become more
due southerly heading into the day on Wednesday and continuing
into Wednesday night.



MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-Callaway MO-
     Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
     Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-
     Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for Boone MO-Cole
     MO-Jefferson MO-Moniteau MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis
     City MO-Saint Louis MO.

IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown
     IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
     Macoupin IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-
     Washington IL.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for Madison IL-
     Monroe IL-Saint Clair IL.



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