Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 062135
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2015

Tranquil conditions expected tonight with the main forecast concern
being temperatures. Leaned aoa warmer MAV guidance for most of the CWA...
particularly for areas that are by and large snow-free...i.e., central
and east-central Missouri. Southwest surface winds look to stay up between
7-10 knots tonight...keeping the boundary layer from decoupling and
cooling off too rapidly. In areas with deep snow cover...did not stray
too far guidance.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2015

Should be a relatively quiet stretch of weather across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley into the middle or latter half of next week.
Northwest flow at the mid and upper levels will prevail until at
least Monday morning with a shallow longwave trof persists over the
east coast and the ridge hangs tough over the west coast.  A couple
of shortwaves dive southeast out of Canada across the Midwest
Saturday and Sunday, but there appears to be limited moisture for
these waves to work with to produce precipitation.  Honestly, I`m a
bit hesitant to sit on wavy northwest flow for this long without
mentionable PoPs.  The Sunday wave looks the most promising for
precipitation across parts of northern Missouri and central Illinois
with some decent warm advection ahead of it along a low level
baroclinic zone.  Again, moisture will be the limiting factor so
have refrained from introducing higher PoPs at this time.

The pattern begins to shift Monday into Tuesday as a low currently
spinning over the northern Gulf of California finally gets picked up
into the flow which deepens the longwave trof back across the
southwest.  The southwest flow aloft will allow much warmer air to
move into the region.  Should see temperatures pushing the mid 60s
by Wednesday/Thursday.  Latest runs of the medium range guidance
show the southwestern low/trof edging slowly into the lower
Mississippi Valley by Friday, tapping into Gulf moisture and giving
us the only substantial chance for rain through the end of next week.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2015

VFR conditions expected through the valid TAF period. Wind gusts
around 20 knots this afternoon will subside this evening. A weak
frontal boundary is expected to pass through the area late
tomorrow morning veering winds from the south/southwest to a more
westerly component.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected through the valid TAF period. Wind gusts
around 20 knots this afternoon will subside this evening. A weak
frontal boundary is expected to pass through around 1700 UTC and
shift winds to the WSW.

Gosselin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     34  57  32  53 /   0   0   5   5
Quincy          29  49  27  47 /   0   0   5  10
Columbia        33  57  31  58 /   0   0   5   5
Jefferson City  33  59  30  58 /   0   0   5   5
Salem           22  52  29  48 /   0   5   5   5
Farmington      25  55  30  52 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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