Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 291209
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
709 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015

.SHORT TERM: (This Weekend)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015

A few showers dot the radar scope locally, but have my eyes on a
cluster of convection increasing in coverage across eastern KS/OK
early this morning. This activity is moving east at 20KT and is on
schedule to arrive in central MO later this morning between 10 AM
and NOON and eastern MO/western IL between NOON and 3 PM. Additional
storms will likely form this afternoon area wide as the atmosphere
destabilizes. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but
just like yesterday a few stronger storms could produce some local
wind gusts and/or small hail. Temperatures will range from the 70s
in central Missouri to the 80s across eastern MO and IL.

Meanwhile, a cold front will begin approaching the area from the
northwest this evening which will shift the focus for convection to
our northern CWA.  The front will move southeast across the CWA
tonight and Saturday, reaching St. Louis around 18Z. The best chances
of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front with a
clearing trend from northwest to southeast Saturday afternoon and
evening. Temperatures on Saturday will depend on convective trends
and frontal position, but generally think upper 60s northwest to 80s
southeast.

Sunday appears to be dry now as the front pushes south and a ridge
of high pressure builds across the region. It will be a cooler day
with highs struggling to reach 70 degrees.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015

A cutoff low is expected to develop across the lower Mississippi
River Valley underneath a building ridge of high pressure aloft.
Appears the cutoff will stay far enough south that PoPs will be
limited and temperatures should increase through the period back
into the middle 80s. Next trof of low pressure approaches on
Thursday with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the western CWA.

CVKING
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 707 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015

Timing of precipitation still hard to pin down. For now have
vicinity showers at KCOU and KUIN this morning, then as system
moves closer will see scattered storms develop at all taf sites
between 17z and 19z. More predominate area of storms to move in
this evening, so have mvfr conditions with storms after 01z-04z
Saturday. Then some showers behind system late tonight, so have
vicinity showers after 10z Saturday with mvfr cigs persisting.

Specifics for KSTL:
Timing of precipitation still hard to pin down. For now as system
moves closer will see scattered storms develop in metro area after
19z. More predominate area of storms to move in this evening, so
have mvfr conditions with storms after 04z Saturday. Then some
showers behind system late tonight, so have vicinity showers after
11z Saturday with mvfr cigs persisting.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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