Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 222018
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
218 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 218 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Surface ridge overhead to move off to the southeast tonight as a
weak cold front approaches region. Despite increasing mid and high
clouds, temps will still drop into the 20s overnight with the
coldest temperatures over the eastern Ozarks.

By daybreak on Thanksgiving, weak cold front to wash out, so do not
expect any precipitation for the Thanksgiving holiday. Winds will
pickup a bit from the south to southwest, eventually veering to the
west by afternoon. This combined with sunny skies will allow
temperatures to warm up into the low to mid 50s.

Byrd


.LONG TERM...  (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A dry weak cold front will push through the region with breezy
condition likely to occur during frontal passage on Friday. A
cominbation of 850mb temperatures and breezy southwest winds will
allow likely temperatures to  be 10 to 15 degree above
climatological normals for November. A large area of high pressure
will drop south out of the northern plains on Saturday morning. The
high pressure will bring in drier air into the region this weekend.


     High pressure will push east of the region by Sunday afternoon
allowing for winds to switch from northwest to southwest behind the
ridge.  An upper trough over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes
region will push another weak cold front through the region on
Wednesday. The GFS has been better in run to run consistency as of
late and has the front clear of the region. The ECMWF also has the
same weak front to the west of the region during the same time frame
on Wednesday. I elected to keep a chance of scattered showers over
parts of southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois due to the
timing issues displayed in model solutions.



Kelly


&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

With surface ridge overhead, winds to remain light and variable
for majority of forecast period. Mid and high clouds to move back
in after 06z Thursday as weak cold front approaches. Will see
winds pickup a bit and become southerly by Thursday morning,
veering to the southwest to west by midday on Thursday, though
frontal boundary to eventually washout by the time it reaches our
forecast area.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
With surface ridge overhead, winds to remain light and variable
for majority of forecast period. Mid and high clouds to move back
in after 08z Thursday as weak cold front approaches. Will see
winds pickup a bit and become southerly by Thursday morning,
veering to the west by 17z Thursday, though frontal boundary to
eventually washout by the time it reaches our forecast area.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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