Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 042303
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
603 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. LEFTOVER
DEBRIS CIRRUS SHOULD ALSO THIN/DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.  LIGHT WINDS AND
RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY INT WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL SWING WINDS TO A MORE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH DIRECTION OVER THE REGION.  SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS AS WELL.  ANY PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z THU.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR OUR AREA
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. MODEL RUNS TODAY
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
A DRIER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLOWER
PROGRESSION TO THE CHANCE POPS SPREADING ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY ARE THE BEST PERIODS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ARE LIKELY.
THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FA. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...THERE IS A THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS WHILE MOVING FROM NEAR KFSD TO KDLH.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN ARE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ACROSS WESTERN WI LATER IN THE
EVENING.

SMALL CHANCE POPS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH. THE TREND HEADING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY MID WEEK
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS AVIATION-WISE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIE OFF
UNDER THE RIDGE TONIGHT... THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTH TOMORROW AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME DIURNAL CU AGAIN TOMORROW... WILL MAINLY JUST
HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

KMSP...TAF REFLECTS EXPECTATIONS WITH NO ADDITIONAL OPERATIONALLY
RELEVANT CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT...VFR. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT
SHIFTING NORTHWEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND BECOMING
SOUTH 5 TO 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...



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