Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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473
FXUS63 KMPX 261719
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1219 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A benign short term period is expected, as temperatures trend back
toward late June normals in the wake of Saturday`s frontal passage.
That being said, temperatures will still be above normal today given
the sunny skies and breezy westerly flow which is favorable for
warming. Temperatures will warm into the 80`s (mixing to 775mb),
although it will be noticeably less humid thanks to dewpoints around
20 degrees lower than Saturday`s values. Models do not quite seem to
be capturing the drying sufficiently, so have tweaked readings lower
than numerical guidance indicates for this afternoon. Think upper
40s to lower 50s seem reasonable given upstream trends, which will
translate to afternoon minimum relative humidity values in the 25 to
35 percent range.

Tonight expect to see increasing cloud cover approaching from the
north with continued westerly (lighter) winds yielding mild lows in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Persistent northwest upper flow will bring quiescent conditions
to the area through most of the week. The only decent chance of
precipitation looks to occur during the late Wednesday through
Thursday time frame when a decent shortwave trough is progged to
drop through in the northwest flow and push a cold frontal
boundary through the area. The model guidance is in good agreement
on the large scale flow pattern through the week, and the GFS,
ECMWF, and Canadian are actually even within 6 hours or so with
the shortwave/frontal timing on Thursday. So, confidence in the
forecast is fairly high at this point, allow PoPs to be limited
and not make an appearance until late Wednesday night and
Thursday. Included some chance PoPs across the west on Saturday,
but that is in part due to holding onto some of the previous
solutions, which were a bit faster in bringing return flow back
into the region. The latest guidance has slowed things down, so
it`s possible subsequent forecasts will be able to keep things dry
after Thursday until at least Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Only aviation concern is the gusty winds this afternoon from the
west - northwest.

A strong storm system that was north of the Canadian border this
afternoon will continue the gusty winds, with some gusts up to 35
kts in west central - central Minnesota. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will remain through the evening, with some lower
ceilings/clouds developing in central Minnesota after midnight.
These MVFR or possibly IFR ceilings may affect central - east
central Minnesota and into west central Wisconsin Monday morning.
Winds will become more northwest Monday but not as gusty.

KMSP...

Main aviation concern this afternoon is the potential of west
winds gusting above 30 kts. Otherwise, VFR conditions will remain
in the forecast with some lower ceiling possibly affecting the
airport Monday morning, after 15z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Tue...VFR. Light and variable wind.
Wed...VFR. Southwest wind 5 kts.
Thu...VFR. Isolated SHRA/TSRA. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JLT



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