Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 131750
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1250 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VERY MINOR CHGS TO TODAY/S AND TONIGHT/S FORECAST AS CURRENT TEMPS
REMAIN ON TRACK AND A SHRTWV MOVING QUICKLY E-SE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL ONLY BRUSH CENTRAL MN LATER TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL OCCUR IN WC MN DURING THE AFTN. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS HOLDING IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
FEATURE WILL PIVOT EAST-SOUTHEAST TODAY AND SAG INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. WHILE ANY SEMBLANCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
WELL TO THE SOUTH...MODELS FORECAST ADEQUATE FORCING TO GENERATE
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THE ECMWF
IS A BIT MORE INSISTENT THAT THE PRECIP WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS/GEM AND NAM
/TO A LESSER EXTENT/ INDICATE TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF RAIN. HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FROM SOUTHERN MN TOWARD EAU CLAIRE...BUT
DID NOT ENTIRELY BUY IN TO THE GFS/GEM SCENARIO.

AFTER MONDAY...THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH A VERY GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. THIS WARM-UP WILL
BE AN OUTCOME OF BUILDING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 13.00Z
MODELS SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
EXTENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRY AIR THAT WILL NEEDED TO
BE OVERCOME. HAVE DELAYED CHANCE POPS UNTIL FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY
POPS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SATURDAY. UNLESS MODEL PROGS CHANGE
DRAMATICALLY...THE WEEKEND OF THE 21ST LOOKS TO BE A WET ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

NOT MUCH HAPPENING THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDS PREVAILING.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL BRING
ABOUT A WIND SHIFT OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OVER TO THE
WEST...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING BETWEEN 6K AND 10K FEET AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BEST MOISTURE/FORCING IS WELL NORTH OF MPX TERMINALS...SO
HAVE ALL SITES DRY. WILL SEE WIND GUSTS SPREAD EAST ACROSS REST OF
TERMINALS TONIGHT...WITH WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH WILL ELIMINATE THE THREAT FOR FOG.

KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ASPECTS OF TAF WITH NO MAJOR
DEVIATIONS FROM WHAT IS FORECAST EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10G15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SE AT 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG





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